What is the impact of globalisation on the oceans?
- Ocean transport occurred throughout human history e.g. Slave trade, gold from South America commercial goods from PRC and natural oil from Persian Gulf
- Links today are longer and more complex with more people and goods involved
- 45% of global GDP is from world trade and this is moved by ocean transport
- Movements fluctuate over time in line with global economic trends and new markets.
- Trade deals and trade tariffs
- Time-space compression: Processes leading to a shrinking world.
○ Caused by reductions in relative distance between places e.g. technology and increased speed of delivery .
○ Oil tankers from the Gulf queue in the Channel waiting for Hong Kong owners to give permission to Rotterdam for maximum price - Intra and inter regional trade made available by oceans
Since 1990’s future of trade has come from china - Issue woth tariffs- they don’t work as they can be retaliated from the source country.
- However, trump wants to grow domestic economy.
- America is able to protect its economy and its own interests
What about ocean trade routes?
Most populat routes:
- Panama canal
- Suez canal
- Malaka straits
- Gibraltar straits
- Trade routes can underline a north-south divide- often exported from poorer countries towards wealtheir countries - 7 out of the top 10 of the worlds ports are from the people republic of china- easternisation. The largest is shanghai port- exports x3 what rotterdam does. ○ China accounts for 40.4% of the top 50 container ports, with the rest of east asia accounting for 30.9% - In top 20 there are only the netherlands, belgium and germany for europe- population of 500 million people. ○ Europe only accounts for 14.8% of top 50 container ports Trade and communication creates relationships and peace- no world war in Europe since 1945- NATO Article 5- is one member is attacked, all members respond
What about the core routes?
- East- West corridor links North America, Europe and Asia via Panama Canal, Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca
- Europe to South America
What are the secondary routes?
- Brazil to South Africa
- Europe to Iceland
What are the contributing factors that influence routes?
Contributing factors (offering AO1: named examples)
Economic Tariffs and tax breaks
Environmental Natural geography
(Geo-) Political Trade deals, lending of money, tariffs, enterprise zones
What is the direction and type of trade across oceans?
- Size of market served by a port influences volume of goods traded through it
- Total population and income of population affects market size e.g. Europe,
Japan and N. America.- But China and India are creating a growing market.
- The type of good traded influence volumes and direction of ocean trade
- e.g. unprocessed primary goods compared to manufactured goods.
- Containerisation
- Increased size of vessels = economies of scale = increases globalisation
- Bulk goods e.g. oil tankers can carry 3 million barrels of oil
- Increased size of ports to handle goods
e.g. Singapore handles 33 million containers pa
What is the importance of the Panama and Suez Canal?
- Both the suez and panama canals have shaped global shipping routes today- changed the shape of our world. Most transport happens in the North (wealthier).
- Occasionally there is hard power of the Americans or British to control the waters. If the supply chain is broken creates a global issue.
- 2020- Evergreen ship stuck in the canal for 5 days- we overely on the shipping lane. 400 ships had to back up. The consequence of making ships bigger to fit economies of scale will proportionally have much larger and more costly impacts.
- Our reliance is dependent on the precarious situation of a canal that is vulnerbale to piracy or terrorsit threats.
- 20,000 ships pass through the canal per year
- Malaka straits biggest choke point for shipping routes in the world
What are the key facts about suez canal?
History:
* Planned by the French but constructed by the British, the Suez Canal opened in 1869.
A game changer
* It reduced the journey from Asia to Europe by about 6000 km by avoiding a detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
* Asia became more commercially accessible and colonial trade expanded as a result of increased interactions because of a reduced friction of distance.
* It saved 10 days off the Persian Gulf to the Northern European route
* Reduced the journey around africa which was 21000km.
The strategic importance
* Its significance endures, with the Middle Eastern oil trade and the Pacific Asian commercial trade.
what about the cruise ship industry?
- Revenue of the cruise industry worldwide
- In 2024: $37billion
- Average revenue per passenger: $2,500
- Half of this comes from the initial cruise ticket
- Average on board spending: $450/person
- By 2027: expected to reach $57billion
- 2024: industry carried >30 million passengers
- 50% originated from USA
- Carnival Cruise (joint USA-UK owned; HQ: Miami) has the largest market share: 48% (passengers); 42% (revenue)
- Citizens of venice fed up wuth the pollution (air, water, litter)
- Venice has overtourism- is sinking under the weight of the city.
- Many cities have now introduced tourist taxes to reduce overcrowding and toruism
- Vencie was the fist city in the world to ban cruise ships
What about submarine cables?
- Largely made up of copper- Chile, Zimbabwe, transport data around the world
- Largely privately owned by tech companies- its in their interst to keep our data secure, more players can enter the market and increase efficiency
- Lack of internet makes it difficult to operate in modern world
- Most cables arrive from under the sea into a hut- these lack security.
- Enough cables to circle the arth 22 times
- Longest cable hits 39 landpoints and spans 24,000 miles
- Over 750,000 cables transport 99% of our data
- The only time the world is aware of undersea cables that carry internet signals around the world is when they are cut off - such as when a cable connecting Europe to the Middle East failed in 2018, or when a trailing ship’s anchor cut through a cable under the Indian ocean.
- Submarine cables are very expensive to build (generally ranging from $100m - $500m) but they deliver a huge amount of capacity.
- Some of the older cables deliver only 20 Gbps - most of the new ones can deliver several terabits (terabit = 1,000 gigabit) of capacity
- home internet connections are typically between one and 50megabits per second (a megabit being 1/1000th of a gigabit.
How has china exerted power over the ocean through soft power?
China- One Belt, One Road:
- Importance of trade links
- Heads west through and out of china
- China wanted to take ancient trading routes and invest in infrastructure in various countries- new ports, new pipelines
- This will make trade easier for china and with the rest of the world
- It also has the advantage of security- a pipeline bringing oil into the country- wouldn’t have to worry about its energy supply in the future
- Developing trading partners of the future- economic growth in the country is slowing- trade needs to be the driving force for the future
- New facilities- makes imports and exports easier
Chinas influence on ports around the world:
- Key investments add about another 100 ports in at least 60 nations. And Beijing is looking for more.
- Another gigantic Chinese shipping company, COSCO Shipping, is poised to expand its footprint in Europe by taking a stake in the port of Hamburg. Negotiations have been reportedly going well, and a deal is expected soon.
- If COSCO succeeds, it would be the company’s eighth port investment in Europe.
- The state-owned company’s previous investment involves the acquisition of Greece’s Port of Piraeus, one of the world’s most important shipping centers located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa. COSCO bought 51% of the port’s operating company in 2016. After a Greek court gave the go-ahead last month, COSCO now can raise its stake in Piraeus to 67%.
Maritime silk road- the sea route of the belt and road initiative. It connects China to Southeast Asia, Africa and even Europe by the sea. Chinese companies are now owners of all the major ports along the route- strategic economic play
What is chinas influence through hard power?
The distribution of naval strongholds for China
1990s: following the fall of the USSR and a shift towards a more forward-oriented foreign policy, the leaders of the Chinese military turned their attention towards the seas. This led to the development of a green-water navy by 2009.
In 2008, China confirmed plans to operate a small fleet of aircraft carriers.
In 2013 plans outlined to operate in the first and second island chains.
Which powers are feeling most threatened by this military expansion?
- Close nations near the south china sea
* Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia etc.
- Taiwan and Japan- threats to soveriegnty and conflict over island territories due to conflicting EEZ’s.
- US
- Australia
What is chinas network of ports?
- China owns 95 ports abroad, whereas US companies dont operate any major ports abroad.
- China is using these in a long-term effort to build global infrastructure
○ Have spent years, and billions of dollars of investment to develop ports globally - American officials beleive that this network is a security threat- economic and military risks
○ The US has tried to block china from making more deals to keep ports - In thepast decade, China has spent a trillion dollars on its belt and Road Initiative
○ Was designed to boost their economy through government investments from other countries - The motivations for China are strategically defensive
○ Feel vulnerable to the US and their alliance network- could be cut out of the global economic system - China has three main shipping and logistics companies that own most stakes in overseas ports:
○ COSCO shipping ports- government owned
○ China merchants port- government owned
○ Hutchison Ports- privately owned - In 2017, COSCO almost took over operation of a long beach container terminal- US regulators stopped this.
- Chinese firms are still a key presence in the US ports
- US officials that it is a security threat that a lot of the infrastructure used in ports in the US has come from china.
○ Suspicion it is being used to spy on US - US has mixed success at convincing European countries to not allow china to expand its stake in ports- but the value of chinese state investment outweighs the negatives.
- Huge dilemma for man countries due to the conflict between US nad China:
○ Chinese have the money to invest, leads to the creation of jobs and improves the countrys output.
○ Eg. The hamburg deal - The US also managed to convince croatia to turn down a deal with china through behind the scenes diplomacy- this was important as the chinese wanted to operate a container terminal in Rijeka- a strategically valuable area due to its proximity to the Suez canal and european markets
- China is using these in a long-term effort to build global infrastructure
What are chinas naval ambitions?
- Chinas new navy, which started off as a coastal defence strategy, is rapidly expanding with the construction of various warships to add to the navy fleet.
- Quickly is becoming a great military presence in the ocean.
- However, china has denied this saying that it is only there to defend the country and its interests.
- Indo-pacific region is becoming increasingly volatile as China, India and the US battle for control.
- China is also using islands in the south pacific sea as military bases
- China has used its growth in economy to secure places for future growth in its Navy- access rights.
- Chinas coastgurad fleets are posing as fishermen but answering directly to the military- have been harassing Filipino and other neighbours.
- China uses militray power to enhance its influence across the region
- Chinas Navy has been running joint exercises further afield with Pakistan, Iran, Asia, South Africa and Russia.
“Rise of a regional superpower
- China has approx 350 surface ships and submarines, while the US has 293. So, in terms of size China is larger, however globally it could be said that china is more at threat from this. As China is expanding its global navy through the maritime silk road initiative and through their stakes in many ports, the US is growing to feel more threatened by this growth. As a result, China could be on the recieving end of being cut out of the global economy market due to the various links and alliances that the US holds.
What are the south china sea conflicts?
- Involves China, its neighbours and the US
- 3 and a half million square km patch of wtaer is one of the worlds busiest shipping routes and many oil and gas reserves lie beneath the sea bed
- China has a massive claim on almost all of the south china sea
- Philippines, vietnam, malaysia, brunei, and taiwan say parts of the south chian sea belong to them
- 2012- philippine navy harassed chinese fishing boats and arrested the crew of one vessel that escalated into a standoff between the two countries navies.
- Over the past 5 years china, malaysia, philipinnes and vietnam have reclaimed land and built military bases to assert their sovereignty
- Since 2014- china has reclaimed more than 3 thousand ares in the spratly islands
- US is sceptical of Chinas military intentions- it has carried out joint military exercises with the philipinne navy in the south china sea.
- 2016- tribunal ruled that China had no historical rights or legal basis o claim to the osuth china sea
○ China rejected this ruling
What are chinas artificial islands?
- China has secretly been building artificial islands to expand their territory in the south china sea- used as military bases
- Beijing is quietly developing and constructing these
- It is a part of their strategy to control international waters
- Has been happening since 2014
- 3 of these are being built on top of rocks or reefs which were close to the waters surface at high tide
- These islands amount to 3200 acres of lands
- The area occupied by the islands was previously not considered a territory under international law
- 2016- the tribunal ruled that china had violated international law by constructing these islands
- Is alarming many countries
- Consists of military systems, radars, runways capable of handling heavy aircraft, fuel storage facilities for military operations, naval facilities
- Mischief reef, 250km from the philippines has always been ruled by China, however in 2016 it was ruled that it fell in the EEZ of the philipinnes.
○ Images from 2021 show china developing a military base here and spratley islands
Strengthens chinese military- if they own the south chinese sea will control a lot of global trade
What are global oil transit chokepoints?
- Oil transit chokepoints are narrow channels along key trade routes which need to be kept open if the movement of oil is not to be disrupted.
- They are critical for maintaining global energy security as half* of all the oil transported is moved by tanker. Three such key chokepoints exist in the Panama canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca.
- The ‘International Community’ work together to keep these chokepoints open, which reduces volatility in the oil market and reduces the risk of piracy, accidents and terrorist attacks.
straits of hormuz?
- The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s primary oil chokepoint.
- 20 million barrels of oil, representing 30% of all maritime-traded petroleum, passed through the strait each day in 2019 (aka a normal year, as opposed to Covid-impacted)
- Oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Iran, and Iraq all pass through the strait and head mostly towards Asia (and Western Europe), although tankers can also head west towards the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.
- The Strait of Hormuz is able to accommodate the largest oil tankers in the world.
- But Iran has indicated that it could be willing to disrupt the strait.
What is the US Abraham Lincoln?
○ USS Abraham Lincoln are loaded with military planes- show of power and send a clear message to Iran as to who controls the waters
○ Narrowest point= 21 miles wide
○ Iran recently threatened to close the Hormuz strait where 20% of the worlds oil supplies travel
○ The US insists this is a routine voyage- but this time it is at a precarious time
○ US helicopters warn off small boats surronding the military boat, while an Iranian patrol boat and military planes hsadowbehind.
○ Abraham Lincolnis trying to provide air support for Afghanistan
What is happening in Iran?
○ On feb 25, 2015 the islamic revolutionary guard corps launched a great prophet 9 exercise in the Starit of Hormuz by attacking a mockup of an american aircraft carrier.
○ The strait plays a strategic as well as psychological role in world politics and energy markets- Iranians want to be recognised as the dominant military power in the area and the guarantor of the worlds energy security
○ Iran= “policeman of thepersian gulf”.
○ Tehran has shown a willingness to combine real military capabilities and highly publicized drills with coercive rhetorical threats
○ Irans oil economy is facing massive drops in oilprices- blame saudi arabia and the US
§ Has halved its exports and its oil income has been set back $100 billion
○ Western powers would likely be able to dismantle the threats Iran is opposing if it came to it
○ Harmuz straits connect many of the worlds leading oil countries to the rest of the world:
§ Irag- 1.9 billion in oil
§ Iran- 2.2 billion in oil
§ Saudi Arabia- 7.6 billion in oil
§ UAE- 2.4 billion in oil
○ 2010- 17% of worlds oil exports came from the Hormuz straits
○ Crude totals 80% of Irans exports
○ US warned that any disruption to shipping will not be tolerated
Straits of malacca?
- The Strait of Malacca is the shortest waterway which connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
- In 2022 around 20 million barrels of oil a day passed through the strait, with the fuel from the Middle East heading towards Indonesia, China, and Japan.
- The Strait of Malacca is also one of the most narrow chokepoints in the world.
- The narrowest point in the strait is only 1.7 miles wide, which creates a natural bottleneck for shipping.
- The strait has also become one of the newest piracy hotspots in the world.
- Is a narrow waterway that stretches for about 900km between the Malay Peninsula and the indonesian island of Sumatra
- Holds monumental strategic importance in global trade security
- One of the most critical shipping lanes in the world- shortest sea route between the indian oceand and the south china sea and is the primary shipping channel for the transportation of oil to major east esian economies (China, Japan, S Korea).
- Close to 1/3 of global crude oil travels this route
- For japan, the straits trasnport over 80% of the nations oil imports
- For china, 75% of its total oil consumption is constituted by oil brought in from overseas. 60% of chinas entire oil supply navigates through this waterway
- Also a crucial passage for the exchange of goods between the eats and west with approx 25% of all trade volume worldwide travelling through it- gives those states with influence their further leverage over the global economy
- Has been a historical flash point for piracy whcih poses a threat to the safety of Marine commerce.
- Its narrowness and shallow depth make it a strategically vulnerbale point which could be exploited in military confrontations or geopolitical conflicts
- China views the straits as a crucial lifeline for its energy supplies and trade and its reliance on this is often called the Malaka dilemma. A s aresult the chinese has been increasing its presence in the area, so the US and its allies have sought to do the same to make sure it remains open and free for navigation in the future.
- Security remains paramount due to piracy threats, so collaborative maritime surveillance may become increasingly important.
- For example, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are all countries that border the strait and as their economies grow they may begin to ivest more in infrastructure fore regional development and international diplomacy.
Bab el Mandab?
- The Bab el-Mandab is one of the most precarious oil chokepoints in the world.
- Only 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, the Bab el-Mandab connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and to the Indian Ocean.
- Instability or closure of the waterway could force tankers to have to travel around the southern tip of Africa.
- Majority of southbound traffic through the Suez Canal must also pass through the Bab el-Mandab, so the closure of the waterway could have a cascade effect.
- In 2020, 4 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway each day.
- Oil prices took a recent jolt after the Yemeni government collapsed, raising the possibility of a security crisis in the Bab el-Mandab.
- 10 years ago, Houthi militants took control of a key Yemeni military base along the chokepoint.
What is the red sea crisis?
- Attacks from the Houthis on shipping vessels have increased in response to the war in Gaza, with BP halting all shipments of oil and gas through the region.
- On some occasions, Houthis have boarded or sought to board merchant tankers; on others, they have targeted cargo ships with drones and missiles.
- Threats have escalated further in the past week, to the point where Maersk, MSC and other shipping groups have halted or rerouted traffic, while the US has announced a maritime coalition to defend shipping against attacks.
- The Red Sea, one of the world’s most densely packed shipping channels, lies south of the Suez canal, the most significant waterway connecting Europe to Asia and east Africa.
- About 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic. Billions of dollars of traded goods and supplies pass through the Red Sea every year, meaning that delays there can affect petrol prices, the availability of electronics and other aspects of global trade.
- The Houthis have switched tactics to focus on attacking commercial shipping, starting with the seizure of the Galaxy Leader.
- As the situation escalated over the past month, the US has repelled attempts to board other cargo ships, while US, French and British warships have shot down Houthi drones and missiles.
Moreover, the US announced it had assembled a coalition of countries who had agreed to carry out patrols in the southern Red Sea to try to safeguard vessels against attacks. The coalition, called Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), includes the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, but the leading regional Arab powers – Egypt and Saudi Arabia – are absent. - Prominent shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have decided not to use the Red Sea over the past week. According tothe Atlantic Council, a thinktank, seven out of the 10 biggest shipping companies by market share have suspended operations in the Red Sea.
- Some ships are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, on the southern tip of Africa, increasing their journey time by up to two weeks. On Monday, BP halted all shipments of oil and gas through the Red Sea.
- The Houthis initially said they were attacking ships connected with Israel, or heading to or from there. However, many of the vessels have no connection with Israel.
- In response to US and UK air strikes on their positions, the Houthis have more recently targeted ships tied to owners or operators in the UK or US.
What about marine piracy?
- Piracy is an act of robbery or criminal violence by ship or boat-borne attackers upon another ship or a coastal area, with the aim of stealing cargo and other valuable items or properties.
- Since its peak in 2010 when 1,000+ seafarers were taken hostage, the numbers steadily decreased until 2014 when the number fell significantly.
- However, 2015 saw the first increase in 5 years as speculation mounts that complacency could see a gradual increase again in piracy activity in the years to come.
Reasons:
Dysfunctional governments within the context of a ‘Fragile State’ (i.e. corruption) - see above map
* Absolute poverty
* Links to crime networks
* Loss of traditional fishing
* Poorly policed waterways
* Corruption at both national and local government levels
* High commodity prices
Straits of Malacca:
- The region recorded the highest number of reported acts of alleged piracy and robberies in Asia in 2021.
- Coordinated patrols by Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore along with increased security on vessels have sparked a sharp downturn in piracy.
- But in October 2023, one crew member was injured during an attack on a bulk carrier.
Gulf of Oman:
- Iran’s navy seized an oil tanker with 19 crew members on board.
- The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKTMO), which shares warnings to sailors in the Middle East, said the incident happened 50 miles off the coast of Oman.
- The area is transited by vessels coming in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes.
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12.1: What are the main characteristics of Oceans?51
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12.2 What are the opportunities and threats arising from the use of ocean resources?48
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12.3 How and In What Way Do Human Activities Pollute the Ocean?43
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12.4 How is Climate Change Impacting the Ocean System?33
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Case Study: Maldives4
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Case Study: Th Arctic Circle7
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