limitations of quantitative sales forecasting
Past performance is no guarantee of the future – Changes in the market or fashions and trends may cause a change in sales differing from past sales.
Other factors can affect future predictions (PESTLE)
Relies on past data – This may not always a good indication of what may happen in the future.
Time consuming – Complex to make.
What is pay back period
the time it takes for a project to make enough money to pay back its initial investment
pay back period (eq)
amount invested / annual net cash flow
ARR formula
average net return / investment x100
Drawbacks of pay back period
-ignores cash flow after payback
-ignores time value of money (depreciation)
benefits of pay back period
-easy to calculate and understand
-good for technological projects as payback needs to be quick
-reduces risk of a loss
Drawbacks of ARR
-ignores the timing of the cash flows
-ignores the time value of money
Benefits of ARR
easy to calculate and understand
takes into account all cash flows
What is NPV?
the sum of the present values of cash flows - the cost of the initial investment
calculation for the return
NPV / investment x100
benefits of decision trees
managers have to work out real values of the potential pay off and think about probability instead of vague statements
can compare options quantitively and objectively
drawbacks of decision trees
benefits of critical path analysis
drawbacks of critical path analysis
short- termism
make decisions to increase financial performance over short time periods
benefits of short termism
-attractive to managers as their bonuses based of short term performance
-Shareholders happy
- good for new businesses looking to survive
drawbacks of short termism
long termism
concentrate on reaching long term goals
benefits of long termism
drawbacks of long termism
subjective decision making
‘gut’ feelings, opinions, experience
benefit and drawback of evidence based decision making
+easier to justify as its based of verified facts -
-can be time consuming as circumstances may change during the decision
benefit and drawback of subjective decision making
+decisions made quickly which means firms can take advantage of short term opportunities
-instincts wrong or biased
corporate culture
reflects the firms values, its the way things are done in the firm and they way things are expected to be done