What are the demographic trends in the first 30 years of the NHS?
infant mortality/1000 live births
Girls: (1948) 39, (1996) 7
Boys: (1948) 30, (1996) 5
With the introduction of the NHS, there have been lots of factors contributing to increasing old age. There is therefore less infant mortality and the dramatic initial change was due to the introduction of the NHS, but it is still decreasing.
proportion of deaths below 65 in England and Wales
(1948) 40%
(1996) 7%
Are the increasing numbers of people reaching old age worrying figures?
What shape of population pyramid have we reached now?
This is how we have now reached. A barrel shape with a bulge in the middle – this is the ‘baby boomers’, those born in 40s/50s after WWII, they are now in their 60s-70s and are the ones who could cause potential problems in the future
What are survival curves?
graphical representation of population survival with age
What are logarithmic scales?
haracteristic of populations that do not age or live under such severe conditions that none survive to old age.
This gives some more information about % population at birth and how they decline with time
What does it mean to ‘square the rectangle’ of a logarithmic scale?
With further improvements in living conditions death is compacted to old age, squaring the rectangle of survival.
This is the ideal situation – we want to ‘square off’ the rectangle
What needs to be done to square the rectangle of survival in the UK?
These are what have caused the changes in life expectancy/population
What is the future of old age?
- unenjoyed?
What are meagre increments?
What is theoretical gloom?
What are some chronically disabling diseases that have a steep relationship to age?
What are dependency profiles of elderly people by age?
Height of column represents the number of people dependent on someone else for that activity
What are the 4 scenarios of the future of old age?
1 - 1 year of additional woe for every year of life gained
2 - less than 1 year of additional woe for one year of life gained
3 - no additional woe for each year of life gained
4 - less woe despite life gained: Fries’ ‘compression of morbidity’
What are the GHS trends from 1980-2001?
The height is the cumulative number of days spent in hospital until you die. This shows that its always the last three years that you spend most time in hospital regardless of what age you die at.
What are the days spend in hospital in 3 years prior to death?
- did not rise with age above 45
About the predicted numbers of people over 65 in the UK unable to perform activities of daily living…
About ‘squaring the circle’…
‘ageing to the rescue!’
ageing starts at 14 – the eyes being the firs thing to be affected, needing more light to see things.
What is frailty?
a physiological syndrome characterised by decreased reserve and diminished resistance to stressors, resulting from cumulative decline across multiple physiological systems and causing vulnerability to adverse outcomes.
What is physical frailty?
the combination of weight loss, fatigue, impaired grip strength, diminished physical activity of a slow gait
Ageing vs disease
What are Strehler’s concepts for a true ageing process?
to be a true ageing process all 4 must be fulfilled
What is the universal aspect of Strehler’s concepts?
What is the intrinsic aspect of Strehler’s concepts?
- e.g. skin in axilla, hair loss
What is the progressive aspect of Strehler’s concepts?
- eg greying of hair, loss of muscle power