How and when did the Arab Spring start
It was sparked by the first protests that occurred in Tunisia on 18 December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid, following Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in protest of police corruption and ill treatment
Who were the key players in the Arab spring
State Department Obama NSC key members --Robert Gates/Leon Panetta --Hillary Clinton ---Adm Michael Mullen/ Gen Martin Dempsey (2011-15)/Gen. Joseph Dunford (2015-19) --Rice ---Samantha Power
What was Obamas general view on the Arab Spring
- Warring of overseas engagements
- Wants out of Afghanistan and Iraq however easier said then done
- Confronting problem states with diplomacy
- Lack of entire trust for military
—— After initial first year, Obama did not really trust military cause he felt like military boxed him in with Afghanistan surge
-conceal and confront
-a foreign policy realist – meaning pragmatic
-increasingly centralized security policy
decision making in the White House
Libya and UN Security Council Resolution 1973
On March 17, 2011, The U.N. Security Council votes to authorize a no-fly zone over Libya and military action to protect civilians against Gaddafi’s army
How did Gates and Mullen + the military Approach the Libyan Conflict
- No clear political objectives
- No understanding of Libyan opposition groups
- Political fallout from invading another Muslim Country
- Concerned about second and third order consequences
- Would divert US military resources from other higher priority operations
- A no fly zone would not have real impact on what happens on the ground
o No fly zone is more complicated than just saying it, involves actually going to war
Who else supported gates opinion on Libya
VP, NSA advisor+ deputy advisor
Clinton
Who was in favor of intervention in Libya and what were their reasons
- Rice – UN ambassador
- Samantha Power – NSC staff member
1. Humanitarian reasons
a. Rice worked on Clinton staff during Rwanda and says never again
2. Demonstrate to other authoritarian Middle East governments that violent suppression is not acceptable
What were Obamas reasons for intervention in Libya
Obama’s Decision
- Main reasons for intervention n
o Humanitarian concern that Muammar Gaddafi would slaughter citizens
Furthermore, if they don’t intervene they will be blamed for not helping
o Support NATO allies to encourage them to contribute more in future and sustain US leadership
Its up to other states to maintain No fly zone
• That where the term leading from behind comes from, trying to get NATO allies to step up
o Broad idea, related to the Arab Spring uprisings “ that decisive support for the Libyan revolution would vividly demonstrate that the United States supported the uprisings across the region
o Lesser reasons
Arab spring undercut jihadist position/ arguments and hence appeal
As protests show they don’t need to use violence to overthrow governments
What was Unified Operation Proctor
Unified Operation Proctor
- 2 days after UN security council resolution first airstrikes occur
o French initiate this
- 19 March 2011 – First air strikes halt the advance of Qaddafi’s forces on Benghazi and subsequently target Libya’s air defenses
- 31 march 2011 – NATO officially assumes command
- 20 October 2011, Qaddafi dies
What were the consequences of the Libyan invasion
- NATO
o No political or military unity within NATO
Member states politically divided over NATO taking on the Libya campaign
A small majority of allies did not contribute forces to the operation
o Many contributing members hampered by national caveats
Danish only provided 6 aircraft, Only to provide close air cover
o US leading from behind
Without United States leading NATO struggles to work
• Conducted most of the early strikes in Libyan air defenses
• Furnished some of 75 % of the intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance needed t conduct the campaign
• Furnished 75% of aerial refueling capabilities
• European contributors ran out of precision-guided munitions within the first month of the campaign
• US ultimately conducted an estimated 40-50% of all ground strikes
o Without indispensable US contributions, the military operation would not have been possible
o There is still a major trans Atlantic military-technical conceptual gap
o US announcement of pivot to Asia in late 2011
Hillary Clinton released an article with a pivot to Asia
Move the Obama admin wanted to make from the very beginning - Destabilizes and fragments
o Today essentially a failed state
o Creates space for rise of Islamist extremist groups
o Benghazi attack in Sept 2012 - Regional
o Loose light weapons funnel south
o Induces regional instability
o Tunisia
See some weapons show up there
Gaddafi’s chemical weapons have not been removed and this leads to - US less willing to use force elsewhere in the Middle East
o Syria
o Republicans continuous Benghazi hearings make US military and State Dept wary of other such incidents - Obama accused of not getting Congressional approval
o Did not approve war powers act
o Went ahead and did it - If you give up your weapons of mass destruction you will end up like Qaddafi
What was Obamas biggest regret regarding the Post Libyan conflict
Obama says one of his biggest mistakes was not tracking what Britain and France commitments to rebuilding Libya
What did NATO members claim they were going to do in the 2012 Summit
member states claim they will raise their military expenses to 2% of its GDP
What occurred in Syria in 2012
- some protests start over the Arab Spring and pro democracy movements
- Gaddafi starts to suppress protesters and opposition
- Rebel groups start take over new areas
What was the American outlook on Syria in 2013
- American starts looking at the problem especially the outflow of refugees
o What can we do about this
One idea was akin to rwanada and create safe havens
• Who will do the protecting?
They are trying to get out of the middle east especially after Libya
Training locals however most of these people aren’t fighter
• Obama shelves this - What is the domestic situation that underpins the idea of using force in Syria
o Election
What was the Syrian Red line
- Obama 2012
o I’ve made it clear to Assad and all who follow his orders, We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people, or the transfer of those weapons to terrorists. The world is watching; we will hold you accountable - President Obama April 2013
o We cannot stand by and permit the systematic use of weapons like chemical weapons on civilian populations
The large chemical weapon attack in Damascus forced the issue and led to the-
o Obama admin, via Kerry, working with Russia to convince Assad government to give up chemical weapons stocks, and verifiably destroy chem wpn facilities voluntarily
o Last official Syrian chem weapon is removed Aug 2014, approximately 1,300 tons.
people start claiming that this undermines the credibility of the United States
• states wont take US threats seriously
What were the pressures impacting Syrian engagement
- Moderate to strong support within the Obama admin to act “ to deter and degrade” the ability to use chemical weapons
- Issue drawing support
o Humanitarian concern – power and rice
o Deter any use of chem weapons by any regime
Fairly wide moderate support
o Lone reluctant voice – Gen. Martin Demsey (CJCS)
What kind of response are we talking about
What happens if we destroy chemical weapons storage sites
We can’t extract them
o Strong voices in Congress – McCain, Graham, and others – argue to significantly degrade the Assad Regime - There’s no real public opinion to drive to act
o No stomach to deal with this - Obama is boxed in, he’s in a no win situation
- Increasingly becomes a matter of not whether but when
o Obama however, consultation with McDonough, his chief of staff, decides to request authorization of Congress to use force
Aware he got in trouble with congress over Libya thus he needed to gain their support
Obama has to juggle all the factors thus he decides to be very careful
However Congress is in Recess
• As a general rule congress doesn’t like taking votes for military force when in recess
