1
Q
Balance is Not
A
- Being ‘unpredictable’
- Value betting/bluffing 50/50
- Freqs depend on bet sizes, ranges, stacks
- ‘Mixing it up’ for no reason
- flatting AA/KK, 3B 84s
- unusual bet sizes without appropriate ranges
- Only relevant against good players
- Balance on early streets helps exploit weak player’s later-street mistakes. eg if player overfolds river, and we only bet value, we miss chances to exploit river bluffs
2
Q
Balance is
A
- Baseline framework from which we can deviate
- Default strategy against unknown V
- Structure ranges to maximize EV of each range
- Ensure bet/raise ranges contain right types/freqs of bluffs
- Ensure check/call ranges protected across multiple streets
- Helps us define opponent strategy
- Weak opponent balanced almost everywhere
- Strong more balanced generally, less so in specific spots
- Achieving synergy between two ranges
3
Q
Balanced Thought Process
A
- Most players think: “V’s range is X and strategy Y, so I do Z with this hand”
- Leads to lack of self-awareness because everything is framed around opponent
- We should shift: “My default is to bet A and B here but check C, but against this villain I will also bet C”
- We should not need info about opponent to have an approach to a spot
- Often we don’t have information, so strategy can fail
4
Q
Pivoting from Balance to Exploitation
A
- Balance: My range should include A/B/C and size X
- Population (minimal) exploit: Average V folds too much here, so I bet D and E, plus A/B/C
- Villain (maximal) exploit: This V doesn’t fold enough here, so I bet A/B/C but check D/E
5
Q
Balance vs GTO
A
- Balance is simplified GTO
- You can be balanced but not GTO: GTO bet may be 2/3 pot, but you can still have a balanced range with the wrong size (e.g. 1/3 pot)
- GTO poorly defined preflop (all calculators make overly constrained assumptions)
- So, GTO postflop depends on understanding of preflop balance
6
Q
Balance and Bet Sizing
A
- Inherently interrelated
- On river, bluff ratio should equal pot odds offered to villain
- Larger bets offer worse pot-odds = more bluffs
- Smaller bets offer better odds = fewer bluffs
- Early streets, board texture and equity distribution dictate balance
- Harder to identify value bets/bluffs on dynamic boards
7
Q
Balance: an Example
A
- On river with 50 value combos
- Half pot bet gives V 3:1 = 25% bluffs, 67 combos
- Pot gives 2:1 = bluff 33% = 75 combos
- 2x pot 1.5:1 = bluff 40% = 83 combos
- 5x pot 1.2:1 = bluff 45% = 90 combos
- No possible size allows bluff >50% and balanced
- If fewer value combos, must decrease bluffs
- To justify larger size, need bluffs to balance
- But, we lose more when called
- To increase % of available bluffs for overbets, we can check some value hands
8
Q
Strategic Value of Balance
A
- Provides strategic framework
- We can’t run a solver for every hand
- Frames discussions
- Discussing a hand history
- Villain bets river: call or fold?
- Is V balanced, bluff-heavy, value-heavy?
- Frames a detailed discussion around range choices in each event
9
Q
Balance for Protection Against Good Players
A
- Better opponents notice our tendencies
- Under/Over-bluffing easily noticeable
- too much PFR or 3B
- They rarely get a read on how we play specific spots
- So, appearance of balance important
- Don’t want V to be able to say “you’re never bluffing here”
- We don’t actually have to bluff there, just give the impression that we can
10
Q
Balance: Forms the Foundation of Adjustments
A
- ‘Default’ against unknowns incorporates balance
- More information allows deviation
- Broad adjustments easier to make
- Be value-heavy if V hates folding
- Be bluff-heavy if V likes folding
- Ranges can only expand/contract efficiently if they start from a balanced approach/analysis
11
Q
Balanced Preflop Ranges
A
- Almost always merged
- We raise every profitable hand
- Value/bluff line blurred: KTs in MP: value? Bluff?
- 3B ranges balanced by frequency
- more we can 3B value, more we can bluff
- Some spots will have merged 3B
- Flatting ranges balanced by board coverage
- If we only flat broadways, we can only hit broadway flops, only pairs then sets or zip
- Flat range needs multiple subsets of hands
12
Q
Balance on Flop
A
- Flop advantage guides c-bet freq, flop texture guides shape of our range
- Static: strong top-pair+, air w/backdoor, and middle (e.g. 2nd pair) have showdown value
- Dynamic: ranges weighted toward hands with equity retention. Some flop value bluffs by river, vice versa
- 3 to straight and/or flush usually good flop bluff
- Responding to c-bet: raising ranges polarized, calls merged, except dynamic flop where many hands have good equity to c/r
13
Q
Continuing as Aggressor
A
- If we bet flop with lots of hands that pick up equity on turn, allows turn bet with good freq when we do pick up eq
- Some flop value becomes turn bluff (eg J7s on QsJ8, turn 9s, could bluff)
- If we under-bluff flop and turn completes a draw, we have no bluffs
- If we over-bluff flop and turn bricks, we have mostly air
- Flop/turn balance allows effective 3rd barrelling
14
Q
Continuing as Defender
A
- Consider blockers when deciding how to protect check/call ranges
- Strong hands that block V’s value are excellent bluff-catchers (AJ on AJ5)
- Strong hands that unblock V’s value/draws are excellent raise/CR (55 on AJ5)
- When floating, consider backdoors: overcards+ backdoors good, low pairs/vulnerable hands not
- If flop/turn ranges balanced, will have enough turn/river bluffs (eg barrel river if V checks turn)
- If V doesn’t barrel turn correctly, we realize equity when calling flop
15
Q
Balance with SPR <2.5
A
- Low SPR, so closer to getting all-in
- 3 categories in range
- 1: Hands comfortable to bet/call it off vs flop
- 2: Hands comfortable as flop bluffs crushed vs raise
- 3: Marginals where bet/call or bet/fold awkward
- Bet/raise ranges are 1st two, not 3rd (more polar)
- Bet/raising equity and being forced to fold bad (so shift cat 3 hands to realization)
16
Q
Balance with 2.5-5 SPR
A
- 2 or 3 streets needed to get stacks in
- Balancing flop ranges requires considering later streets
- Can start betting draws with good retention (can call a raise or 3-shove instead of being forced to fold)
- If we bet/raise all draws, we never have it when we check/call and draw hits turn
- Best draws to check flop are ones that also flop a pair
17
Q
Balance with 5-10 SPR
A
- Flop c/r ranges play a big part, to grow pot on flop
- Turn betting ranges after flop c/r critical too
- Can now check-shove turn after c/c flop (especially vs frequent turn barrelers)
- SPR makes it hard to be forced off equity (can bet, call a raise, re-evaluate next street)
- Avoid bet/folding good equity
18
Q
Balance with 10-20 SPR
A
- Difficult for hero or V to prevent equity realization
- Even C/R pot on flop has SPR >2.5 on turn
- Many hands will see a turn, so balance crucial
- Turn 2-barrels want to avoid b/f to a c/r
- Players too scared of turn c/r’s
- So, they check back turns too often
- Focus for river range balance is 3-barrelling and bluff-catching
- If we reach river with enough SPR for a bluff-raising range, it’s because pot is small
19
Q
Balance with SPR >20
A
- All options on table
- Estimates of V’s later street tendencies shape approach to flop balance
- If V makes T/R mistakes, we can unbalance flop with no fear
- Nut draws gain substantial implied odds to win big pots vs non-nut draws
- Nut blockers gain value: help us bluff in big pots by blocking top
- When river bluff-raise ranges needed, blockers are the guide
20
Q
Balance Questions for Reflection
A
- How often do I think about balance in game?
- Are my ranges bluff-heavy, or value-heavy?
- How can I be sure? Have I studied my game to find out?
- How balanced are my regular opponents?
- Which spots are they too value-heavy? Too bluff heavy?
Solve 4 Why Primer Course
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