What is the fail-safe versus safe-fail approach?
- Structural mitigation (technofix): about proper infrastructure; buildings, dykes, adaptation fail-safe, zero risk
- Non-structural mitigation (behavioral): insurance; buying down risk in US, risk communication, evacuation plan, ‘safe-fail’ – living with risks
What is the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT)?
Explains how people respond to natural disasters.
- People make decisions based on their perception of the threat and their ability to cope with it.
- Also emotional factors such as fear and anxiety may play a greater role in people’s decision-making during disasters.
What are some key decision drivers (biases > 7) that impact people’s decision-making during natural hazards?
- Availability Bias: Tendency to rely on information that is easily available when making decisions. This bias may lead people to focus on recent or dramatic events, rather than considering the likelihood of a particular event occurring.
- Optimism Bias: Tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. This bias may lead people to believe that they are less likely to be affected by the disaster than others.
- Myopia: Refers to a focus on the present at the expense of the future. This bias may lead people to prioritize short-term gains over long-term risks, such as delaying evacuation to protect possessions or property.
- Loss Aversion: Refers to the tendency to place greater weight on losses than on gains. This bias may lead people to delay evacuation or take other risks in order to avoid the loss of their property or possessions.
- Emotions: Emotions may lead people to take actions that are not rational or effective in reducing the threat posed by the disaster.
- Complexity: Can make it difficult for people to make decisions, leading to delayed or ineffective responses to the disaster.
- Cultural memory
What is the role of cultural memory in disaster risk behavior?
- Some risks become bigger in peoples minds and therefore in the call for change, but other risks (depending on culture, debate, age & background) do not
- Interaction of phycological, social, cultural, institutional aspects amplify or attenuate public experience of risk
What are some challenges with the fear appeal in media by governments ?
- Negativity bias: good news has less impact than bad news
- Fear appeal however is difficult to control and reduces trust > watch out for exaggeration > policy boomerang: people stop believing the sender when nothing happens (warnings without consequences)
What does Harries (2017) concept of ontological security entail?
Describes the sense of stability and continuity that individuals and societies derive from their worldviews, beliefs, and sense of identity.
How do natural hazards impact ontological security of people?
Hazards can threaten ontological security by challenging people’s assumptions about the predictability and orderliness of the world.
- In response, individuals and communities may engage in various coping strategies to regain a sense of control and stability, such as seeking out information, relying on religious or cultural beliefs, or rebuilding damaged infrastructure.
What is the role of government policies and institutions in promoting ontological security?
Effective disaster management can help restore people’s confidence in the stability and predictability of the world, while ineffective or corrupt governance can erode trust and exacerbate social and economic disparities.
What does the cognitivist framework suggest?
That people’s perceptions of risk and uncertainty are influenced not only by objective factors such as the likelihood and severity of a hazard but also by subjective factors such as their personal experiences, beliefs, and values. These subjective factors can shape how people interpret and respond to information about hazards and can influence their sense of ontological security.
What is the psychometric approach?
A method for measuring people’s perceptions of risk and uncertainty. This approach involves using surveys and other tools to assess people’s attitudes and beliefs about different types of risks, such as natural hazards or technological hazards. By understanding how people perceive and respond to risk, policymakers and practitioners can design disaster management strategies that are more effective and better tailored to people’s needs.
