What is deterrence?
A strategy that uses the threat of force to prevent an adversary from taking an unwanted action. It relies on convincing the opponent that the costs of action will exceed any potential benefits.
What are the main assumptions underlying deterrence theory?
Rational actors who calculate costs and benefits
Clear communication of threats and commitments
Credible capability and willingness to carry out threats
Adversary believes the threat
What is the difference between deterrence and compellence
Deterrence: “Don’t do X” (prevent future action)
Compellence: “Stop doing X” or “Do Y” (change current behavior)
Compellence is harder—requires active compliance.
Shelling 1967
What does Schelling mean by “the manipulation of risk”?
Creating shared risk of uncontrolled escalation to coerce an adversary. Making the situation dangerous enough that both fear losing control.
Why is the manipulation of risk risky?
Creates uncertainty and potential for unintended escalation beyond anyone’s control.
What are the main risks of deterrence?
Misperception, irrational actors, credibility problems, escalation spirals, communication failures.
Why is compellence harder than deterrence? (Art & Greenhill)
Requires active compliance, greater loss of face, sustained pressure, easier to resist than simply not act.
What is the “nuclear taboo” ?
Normative prohibition against nuclear use since 1945. Social/moral constraint, not just rational deterrence. (Tannenwald 2007
What is escalation management (Stein on Ukraine)?
Preventing conflict from expanding in scope, intensity, or geography while pursuing objectives.
How does deterrence relate to strategic use of force?
Uses threat (not actual use) to achieve political goals. Force as bargaining tool, not just fighting.
What is the role of credibility in deterrence?
Essential—adversary must believe you’ll follow through. Lost through disproportionate threats, past failures, lack of capability.
How does deterrence differ from defense?
Deterrence: prevent attack through threats (psychological)
Defense: defeat attack if it occurs (physical)
What is extended deterrence?
Deterring attacks on allies, not just yourself (e.g., U.S. nuclear umbrella). Harder to make credible.
collective action problems
Situation where individual rational behavior leads to a worse outcome for the group.
Actors have incentives to free-ride rather than contribute.
Results in under-provision of public goods (e.g., security, alliances, climate action).
