How did you reliably estimate development costs?
What were the key outputs of your DCF?
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Payback Period
Was the financial viability of the development directly proportional to the size of the development/number of fields used?
Initially yes, as I thought there was ample connection capacity.
But, as more data arrived it did not.
It would be the case if their was grid capacity and more local private off-taker.
varies due to factors like size, location, grid capacity, financing, and operational costs.
Why didn’t you undertake sensitivity analysis on the initial appraisal, to see the impact of a smaller scheme?
Tell me about the special assumptions in your DCF.
Assumed planning permission is granted and grid connection stays the same. Electricity rates from private wire stable.
Contamination issues non-existant
No incentives applied or BESS as too complex, TC will look into this.
What was the target level of profitability?
8%
* Why: It’s more than what current business makes.
* Use in DCF: Helps decide if the project is worth it.
* Criteria: Project needs to hit 8% or it’s a no-go.
* Goal: Boost overall profits and value for shareholders.
How did you select an appropriate discount rate?
8% discount rate chosen as client’s target profitability level.
Exceeds current business returns.
Enhances profitability.
Allocates resources wisely.
Would tax normally be included in a DCF development appraisal? Why was it included in this case?
No
Tax can be included in DCF but isn’t typically in my company’s appraisals.
Reasons for not including:
* Simplifies the analysis.
* Avoids speculative tax implications.
* Focuses on pre-tax cash flows for uniformity in analysis.
Enhanced Capital Allowances (ECAs) that allow businesses to claim 100% first-year capital allowances on qualifying energy-saving technologies.
What Government Incentives could the scheme apply for?
Smart Export Guarantee (SEG)
CfD (Contracts for Difference)
However, with most energy supplied to a local business via a private wire and potential battery storage, reliance on SEG and Contracts for Difference (CfD) is reduced, emphasizing direct business supply for stable revenue.
How did you determine the rates applicable?
A Ratings consultant informs this figure.
I understand ratable value is determined by output and if theres a government incentive.
Could there be difficulties in securing financial backing and insurance for the solar farm due to the landfill
No
as a secured loan can be achieved, against recently valued property by RICS Registered Valuer.
Hire purchase:
* Lower rate than unsecured loan.
* Bank takes a charge in property or plant.
* Up to 7 years.
Difference between CPI and RPI
CPI:
* Broader measure of inflation.
* Excludes housing costs like mortgage interest payments and council tax.
* Generally reports lower inflation rates.
RPI:
* Includes housing costs.
* Generally reports higher inflation rates. Used for wage negotiations and index-linked bond
What RICS guidance or professional standards did you use?
I utilized the RICS professional standard Valuation of assets in the commercial renewable energy sector (2018).
However, it wasn’t to redbook standard:
What is a real options valuation?
Pros and Cons of Real Option Valuation
Pros:
* Accounts for uncertainties and contingencies.
Cons:
* Complex and requires sophisticated modeling.
was a suggestion from TC.
Tell me about the Income Capitalisation method
Pros and cons of the Income Capitalisation Method
Pro:
* Simple and less data-intensive.
Con:
* Doesn’t account for variations in cash flows over time.
Less comprehensive in risk assessment compared to DCF.
how did you use a DCF to determine the highest site value?
Pros and Cons of DCF
Pros:
* Detailed valuation using future cash flows.
* Fits projects with fluctuating cash flows.
* Accounts for time value of money.
Cons:
* Sensitive to assumptions.
* Needs accurate cash flow projections.
* Can be complex and lengthy.
What is residual valuation
value of a development site = total cost of development - end value of the development.
Pros and Cons of Residual Valuation
Pro:
* Useful for valuing land for development projects.
Con:
* Highly sensitive to changes in cost and value estimates.
What is Profits Valuation
determines an asset’s value based on its ability to generate profit. It uses historical data and future profit forecasts, often applied to businesses or assets with a track record of profitability.
Pros and Cons of Profits valuation
Pro:
* Directly based on asset’s profit potential.
Con
* Depends on accurate profit forecasts.
What is NPV
Represents the present value of future cash flows.
Positive NPV means project is profitable.
Relies heavily on the chosen discount rate.