Event loss
Estimate of losses for every simulated event
Event loss table (ELT) / Year loss table (YLT)
Total losses for each simulated year
Average annual loss (AAL)
Expected value of losses for a given year
Loss costs
Level the AAL to the amount of exposure
Exceedance probability (EP) curve / Value at risk (VAR)
Probability of exceeding different levels of loss
Occurrence EP (OEP) curve
Probability of the largest event loss exceeding different values
Aggregate EP (AEP) curve
Probability for the total loss for all events exceeding different values
Standard deviation
Secondary uncertainty, uncertainty in the amount of damage that would be experienced from a given event
Tail value at risk (TVAR)
Average of all expected losses beyond a given exceedance probability
Intensity
- Wind speed
- Peak ground acceleration
- Flood depths
Fluvial/riverine flooding
Excessive water going beyond the banks of a stream
Pluvial flooding
When rain brings more water than a local area can absorb
Requirements for model validation
- Determinate appropriate reliance on experts
- Basic understanding of model
- Evaluate if model is appropriate for intended application
- Determinate that appropriate validation has occurred
- Determinate appropriate use of model
Common model validations
- Event frequency compared to historical or scientific consensus on future
- Intensity footprint compared to actual observations
- Distribution of damage compared to estimates from exposure data
