EP pacific islands
all construction in the region in 2017 was worth $958bn =6x greater than its of foreign aid activities
EP Digital economy
70% of huawei consumed outside of china
EP Taiwan
100,000 business invested in China (specifically tech sector)
provides higher paying jobs for chinese ppl –> income inequality + dual economy
EP BRI
link poor west + eastern chinese states to trade
port through Gwadar Pakistan–> Kashgar in Xinjiang province
est. to bring 0.2-0.3% GDP growth to region
EP evaluation: debt levels
total debt (government, corporate, household) = 280% of GDP = threat to financial stability t/f reduces attractiveness of China to investors
EP evaluation: consumer spending
Consumer spending = 40% of GDP = significantly below advanced economies and other middle-income economies=60%
EP evaluation: Gini coefficient
0.46= most unequal large economy in the world
EP evaluation: slowing gdp
Q1, 2025 =5.4% growth from 2024 but analysts predict it will slow to 4.3%
security Taiwan recognition
Kiribati + Solomon islands = recognised one china policy in 2019 in order to receive aid –> decrease recognition of Tai internationally
security Grey zone tactics
2024 joint sword A + B surrounded Tai mainland + with CCG
ADIZ incursion in 2024: 3074
security symbolism of Tai embargo
Pineapple embargo 2021 showcase Tai reliance on Chi
security Phil
territorial integrity
May 2025–> CCG protecting claimed area against phil fishing boats
eval security: 9-dash line
UNCLO ruling in 2016= found Chinese 9 dash line claim unlawful + 3 artificial islands in region = unlawful
eval security: Tai
Tai reduce independence on Chi –> 40% trade decline in 2024
impacts status quo
RR Dut
Duterte presidency
7 days after meeting in 2016 Dut= announced removal of US bases in Phil in the next 2yrs
RR Malya + Viet
around 25% trade with china–> X condemnation of chinas actions in SCS in 2020
eval RR MARCOS
negative relo with Marcos (philippines) eg) phil increase US access to phil military bases in 2023
eval RR solo
Solomon islands = minimal economic benefit
RS
increase in soft power through panda diplomacy bcs gift= sign of friendship + economic potential
2 pandas lended to Aus in 2024
RS spread of cultural power
541 Confucius institutions globally
2900 courses taught in english–> promote international students
chinas global TV in 9 diff languges
spend $10bn a yr promoting soft power
RS Pew institution
China contributes to global peace and stability:
Singapore 73%
Thai 80%
Malay 76%
Chinas has influence on economic conditions:
South Korea 53%
Malaysia 52%
RS meetings + summits
hosted 3rd BRI summit in 2023
23 states participate
china= able to control agenda
eval RS US view
“intimidation + coercion “ in SCS- US defence secretary 2018
eval RS increased aggression in SCS
greater US presence
Jap+ US joint military exercise 2023
phil increase US access to phil military bases in 2023