Cognitive biases

Question 1

• Tend to look for evidence that validates our opinions while ignoring invalidating evidence
  
  • Like an echo chamber
  • E.g. what makes you decide whether or not to click on a certain link

Answer 1

Confirmation bias

Question 2

• E.g. remembering the 1 star review amongst all the 5 stars

- Tend to attend more closely to and place more weight on information that is not uplifting

Answer 2

Negativity bias

Question 3

• Tend to give a lot of weight to evidence that is easily accessible, if we can easily recall something then it must be common important
  E.g. if you hear about a plane crash rather than a car crash RECENTLY, you’ll be more hesitant to fly than drive

Answer 3

Availability heuristic

Question 4

• Tend to let initial values affect our appreciation of subsequent values (even when the initial value is arbitrary)
  
  • E.g. Kathmandu sales ‘previously $700, now only $400’

Answer 4

Anchoring effect

Question 5

• Tend to be unmoved by information about the probabilities of various kinds of events
  
  • Consequently we often overestimate the risk of relatively safe activities while underestimating the risks of relatively dangerous activities
    E.g. risk of driving vs shark attack

Answer 5

Neglecting probability

Question 6

• We sometimes begin to notice something that we didn’t notice before and assume that the frequency of the thing in question must have increased
  
  • E.g. buying car and then recognising same model everywhere

Answer 6

Observational selection bias

Question 7

• Tend to be fearful of change, even when the existing affairs aren’t great
  
  • E.g. preferring current MP’s to new ones

Answer 7

Status quo bias

Question 8

• Tend to follow the crowd, sometimes unconsciously, often even when the crowd is obviously wrong
  
  • E.g. Asch conformity experiment

Answer 8

Bandwagon effect

Question 9

• Tend to overestimate how typical or normal we are and hence assume that most others think/believe like us

Answer 9

False consensus effect

Question 10

• Tend to not be good at imagining ourselves in the future

E.g. discounting future costs/benefits like procrastination

Answer 10

Current moment bias

Question 11

• Tend to, after something happened, believe that we knew that it would happen
  
  • NOTE: often ignore times we ‘knew’ something would happened and it didn’t
  • E.g. gambling

Answer 11

Hindsight bias (“Knew it all along” bias)

Question 12

• When asked to identify the cause of an event:
  · If we were involved we tend to identify the situation as the cause
  · If we merely saw it we tend to identify the actor as the cause
  
  • (won’t blame yourself)
  • E.g. car crash blamed on bad driving if you were involved, blamed on bad conditions if you saw it

Answer 12

Actor observer effect

Question 13

• Tend to place more weight on the views of members of our immediate circle than on those of outsiders
  Likely to overestimate the abilities and virtues of our circle

Answer 13

In group biases