Attitudes of JFK after the CMC?
There was already a de facto treaty in the 1950s.
General Leon Johnson, director of the National Security Council’s Net Evaluation Subcommittee. Estimated that in the event of nuclear war in 1963, the two countries would have a combined 93 mil causalities. MAD- If the US strike first, they would still suffer 65 mil casualties. Keep parity; deterrent; nuclear equality. Would only work under the assumption that humans are rational actors.
Nuclear monopoly threatens MAD— lead to limits of nukes.
Devastating impacts at Hiroshima and Nagasaki
What did Mao call nuclear weapons?
‘Paper tiger’
Khr attitude
Khr- felt emasculated- challenges from MZD that he was not sufficiently revolutionary— had to be anti-west to maintain soviet dominance in the communist world.
Power imbalance
Presented withdrawal from Cuba as a triumph. Russian newspaper, Pravda referred to khr’s ’calm and wisdom’ as an asset for soviet diplomacy.
Negotiations over brinkmanship
Sino-soviet split 1961- no reliable ally in Asia.
Prelude to detente: Washington -Moscow ‘hot line’ 1963
Direct communication line between Moscow and Washington
Unprecedented at the time, previously leaders had to wait for calls to go through a series of exchanges prior to engagement.
Aim was to avoid the delay that had occurred during CMC
Impacts:
Symbolised the new spirit of cooperation from both superpower. Both sides committed to peace process
Wider advancement in the CW
Neither JFK nor Khr ever used the hotline. It was first used by LBJ in 1967 when he alerted the soviets, he was considering supporting Israel in the six-day water. Symbolic in nature. Not used to solve Vietnam or Czechoslovakian crisis
Moscow test ban treaty, august 1963
Context- several yrs of negotiations dating back to 50s. Discussion was initially larger in scope but the soviets and USA agreed on nuclear testing.
Above ground, underwater and outer space were prohibited.
Did not include underground nuclear tests and significantly, France and china did not sign and continue to test weapons until the 1960s.
Impact:
It was a step on the road to signing further treaties.
First collective agreement to establish some limitations in arm race
Confirmed us,ussr and uk were committed to the principle of easing tension.
Illustrated a degree of trust as on-site monitoring of nuclear facilities was not required.
Was bilateral but there were other agreements signed by other countries
Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, July 1968
Context:
The us had sig more ICBMs and SLBMs than the ussr by the 1960s. However, the ussr had the upper hand in defence system. USSR has ABMs that could intercept US misfiles and shoot them out of the sky (worries about lack of MAD)
Initially, ussr did not want their ABMs in the talks, but then the USA developed MIRVs. Makes the former less effective- this brought the Soviets around the table for discussions.
China 1964 tests nuclear bombs
Content:
All nuclear powers agreed that they would not transfer to any recipient nuclear weapons or devices or encourage their manufacture. Only nuclear research for ‘peaceful purposes.’
Impact:
Set the precedent that non-nuclear states would never be able to establish weapons even through alliances.
Very successful bc only 4 countries had gained them since (Pakistan, India Bangladesh and NK)