COP 28

Question 1

COP 28 - Text Re Fossil Fuels

Answer 1

• 28(d) calls on the parties “to contribute to” “[t]ransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”
• 28(h) - calls on parties to contribute to “[p]hasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible”
• BUT 29 - “Recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”

Question 2

COP 28 - Fossil Fuels - Significance

Answer 2

• good on some level b/c signaling to industry that clean, renewable energy is the direction the int community is moving in
• BUT pretty weak given that that this should’ve been done yrs ago + we’re essentially out of time to get this done
• we got something that mentions fossil fuels, but can legitimately ask at what cost - document itself has lingo that it’s not really adding any new firm commitments
• also concern over paragraph 29 - concept that it is endorsing natural gas

Question 3

COP 28 - Global Stocktaking

Answer 3

• supposed to be the first global stocktaking as called for by Paris Article 14
• tension throughout the document of repeatedly saying we’re not doing enough without actually getting the parties to do more
• the states are aguably in compliance with the commitment to announce NDCs, but not actually getting us to the Article 2 goal
• theoretically, requiring it to be a stocktake does at least force the parties to address this question + did at least acknowledge NDCs not enough (vs Paris arguably says don’t criticize the NDCs) but still way too little

Question 4

COP28 - Next Steps

Answer 4

• there was a “guidance and the way forward” section, but not really a very strong call to arms
  -letter to OPEC members to resist any call for phasing out fossil fuels
  -> some concern oil-producing countries have outsized impact + are participating just to hinder progress
• concept that it will take more than these COPs to move us forward
• 8 yrs past Paris – can be worrying that we’re not seeing the progress we need (compare with move from Rio to Kyoto)

Question 5

Potential for Other Institutional Approaches

Answer 5

• could develop other agreements focusing on particular sectors (could have one focused on phasing out fossil fuels)
• value of Paris - global agreement with everyone participating, focusing energy on creating NDCs -> not enough, but at least talking about the goal of temp

Question 5

Capture of COPs by Fossil Fuel Advocates

Answer 5

• record number of fossil fuel lobbyists flooded COP28
• COP 28 hosted in UAE, + next one also in an oil-producing country (Azerbaijan) + leader is the head of the state oil company

Question 5

COP 28 - Temperature

Answer 5

• need to slash GHG emissions by roughly 43% this decade if hope to limit total warming to 1.5 degrees -> beyond this, struggle to adapt to rising seas, wildfires, extreme storms + drought
• BUT global fossil fuel emissions soared to record highs this year + nations on track to cut pollution by less than 10% this decade

Question 6

NYT - Coal Use Point

Answer 6

• 2021 nations struck a deal in Glasgow to “phase down” coal-fired power plants
• BUT Britain then approved new coal mine one yr later + global coal use soared to record highs
• note that India + china also still building large new coal plants to satisfy growing energy demand

Question 7

Recent Trends in Fossil Fuels

Answer 7

• oil production in US surging
• European countries spending billions on new terminals to import liquefied natural gas
• arguments from countries in Africa at COP 28 that they can’t fund clean energy transition w/o exploiting own oil + gas reserves w/o outside financial help
• developing nations also struggling to finance renewable energy projects amid soaring interest rates

Question 8

COP 28 - Quotes Re Urgency

Answer 8

5 - “Expresses serious concern that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record and that impacts from climate change are rapidly accelerating, and emphasizes the need for urgent action and support to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach and to address the climate crisis in this critical decade”

Question 9

COP 28 - Quotes Re Failure to Meet Temp Goal

Answer 9

2 - “Underlines that, despite overall progress on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support, Parties are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals;”
18- even assuming full implementation of latest NDCs, still at 2.1-2.8
21 - “significantly greater emission reductions are required”
23 - notes implementation gap
24 - “Notes with significant concern that, despite progress, global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories are not yet in line with the temperature goal fo the Paris Agreement, and that there is a rapidly narrowing window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments in order to achieve it”
25 - carbon budget small + being rapidly depleted
28 - “Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 degree C pathways and call on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts…”

Question 10

COP 28 - Quotes Illustrating Tension Between Verbal Urgency + Lack of Commitments

Answer 10

6- “Commits to accelerate action in this critical decade” but no firm commitments
31 - “Emphasizes the urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures”

Question 11

COP28 - Quotes Re Feasibility

Answer 11

16(b) - “That both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase manyfold, and that there is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gap but there are barriers to redirecting capital to climate action, and that Governments through public funding and clear signals to investors are key in reducing these barriers and investors, central banks and financial regulators can also play their part”

16(c) - “That feasible, effective and low-cost mitigation options are already available in all sectors to keep 1.5 degrees C within reach in this critical decade with the necessary cooperation on technologies and support”

Question 12

COP 28 - Paragraph 28

Answer 12

28 - “Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 degree C pathways and call on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts…
(a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
(b) Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
(c) Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
(e) Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production
(f) Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030;
(g) Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero- and low-emission vehicles;
(h) Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible”

Question 13

Overall Impressions from COP28

Answer 13

• meeting the 1.5 goal IS feasible, but parties aren’t doing nearly enough to achieve it
• both ambition and implementation gap - the NDCs aren’t enough to get us there, and parties aren’t even meeting those
• need for dramatic change in the face of the extreme urgency of the situation
• tension between the urgency of the situation and the language being used (nothing firm)