Decision Analysis- Bayes

Question 1

how can uncertain outcomes be oserved after a decision is made

Answer 1

when new info presents itself!

Question 2

prior probability

Answer 2

prob of an event before new info acquired

Question 3

posterior probability

Answer 3

prob of an event after new info acquired

Question 4

P(A|B)

Answer 4

prob of A given B occurs

Question 5

P(B|A)

Answer 5

Prob that B occurs knowing A occurs

P(A)= p(A|B)P(B)/P(A)

where

P(a)=P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|Bnot)P(B)

Question 6

when do we use bayes rule

Answer 6

contingent decisionsw

Question 7

what are contingent decisions

Answer 7

you get some extra information, but you pay for this information

-you get this info befor eyou make your decision!!!!