Deductive and inductive reasoning - RD2

Question 1

What is inductive reasoning?

Answer 1

Drawing general conclusions from a premise
you are probably, but not necessarily, true

Question 2

What is deductive reasoning?

Answer 2

Drawing definite conclusions if tenets are true
based on formal logic

Question 3

What is informal reasoning?

Answer 3

Everyday reasoning
relies on knowledge and experience of the world

Question 4

What type of reasoning do scientists use when developing a hypothesis?

Answer 4

inductive - base it on limited data

Question 5

What does Popperian mean?

Answer 5

You can’t fully conclude that all swans are white unless you see all swans ever, but you can disprove it if you see one black swan
so it’s better to try to disprove a hypothesis than prove it

Question 6

What is confirmation?

Answer 6

gaining evidence confirming the hypothesis is correct

Question 7

What is falsification?

Answer 7

gaining evidence to falsify the hypothesis (disprove it)

Question 8

How many people never guess the rule in Watson’s 2-4-6 task?

Answer 8

28%

Question 9

Why do so many people fail the 2-4-6 task and what should they really be doing?

Answer 9

• confirmation bias - told their numbers are correct so assume their theory is correct
• they fail to falsify their hypothesis
• they should give some numbers that they think don’t fit the rule

Question 10

What are some problems with Watson’s 2-4-6 task to show how people reason? (3)

Answer 10

• it isn’t real world since feedback is immediate and binary
• the rule is very general so confirmation testing isn’t appropriate here, but it might be in other tasks
• confirmation bias is not always present, like when testing someone else’s hypothesis

Question 11

What are 2 things scientists do wrong with their hypotheses and results?

Answer 11

• unusualness heuristic - guided by unusual results
• ‘what if’ hypothesis generation without experimentation

Question 12

What did Fuselgang et al (2004) find when looking at whether scientists change their minds if results don’t support their hypothesis?

Answer 12

• 88% were blamed on methods (only 12% modified their hypothesis)
• when the findings are replicated, 61% change their theory
• however, they may have a strong strategy if lots of prior research supports their hypothesis - then the methods are more likely to be wrong

Question 13

What are logical operators and how are they used in deductive reasoning?

Answer 13

if, and, or
used in statements to allow for conclusions to be reached
e.g. if P, then Q

Question 14

What are antecedents? give an example

Answer 14

• premises
• set up the relationship between P and Q and say whether or not p has happened
• e.g. If P, then Q, P = true

Question 15

What are consequents? give an example

Answer 15

• conclusions
• following the antecedents, you can figure out what the outcome will be
• e.g. If P, then Q, P = true, therefore Q

Question 16

What are the two types of logical phrases that are logically valid? give an example for each

Answer 16

• modus ponens - If P then Q - P therefore Q
• modus tollens - If P then Q - not Q therefore not P

Question 17

What is affirming the consequent?

Answer 17

• If P then Q, Q therefore P
• not correct as Q can happen without P

Question 18

What is affirming the antecedent?

Answer 18

• if P then Q, not P therefore not Q
• not correct as Q could still happen without P

Question 19

What is denial of the antecedent?

Answer 19

• often true in the real world but not logically valid
• Q may be unlikely to happen without P
• probabilistic so doesn’t fit into logic

Question 20

What is conditional reasoning a part of? What is involved in it?

Answer 20

• deductive reasoning
• setting up logical sentences with binary solutions

Question 21

Why can logic construct false conclusions?

Answer 21

If the initial statement is wrong then all conclusions will be wrong
there is no room for outside knowledge

Question 22

What is an ‘alternative’ counterexample in De Neys’ (2005) study?

Answer 22

other reasons for the car to slow down (other than pressing the brake)

(‘if the brake is depressed, then the car slows down’)

Question 23

What is a ‘disables’ counterexample in De Neys’ (2005) study?

Answer 23

reasons for the brake not to slow the car down

(‘if the brake is depressed, then the car slows down’)

Question 24

What does providing disables counterexamples do to modus ponens (P therefore Q)?

Answer 24

decreases the acceptance of valid conclusions because they think the brake could have caused something else to happen

Question 25

What does providing alternative counterexamples do to affirming the consequent (Q therefore P)?

Answer 25

increases the correct rejection because knowing other reasons for the car to slow down helps to understand

Question 26

Which type of reasoning is probabilistic and what does that mean?

Answer 26

- informal - thinking something is more likely than something else, e.g. 80% likely to happen

Question 27

What is the straw-man fallacy?

Answer 27

where people focus on the weaker points of another person's argument to decrease the probability of them being correct, to make them look relatively more incorrect than you

Question 28

What is myside bias?

Answer 28

evaluate statements with respect to your own beliefs/experiences of the world

Question 29

What did Stanovich and West (2007) find when comparing people's evaluations of statements about alcoholics and gender pay gaps?

Answer 29

people rated statements as more or less true depending on if they thought it personally applied to them in a good or bad way

Question 30

What did Kahan et al (2012) find was the best predictor of denial of climate change?

Answer 30

cultural values

Question 31

How did climate change deniers remember a previous summer?

Answer 31

thought it was cooler than it actually was

Question 32

What is bounded rationality? (2)

Answer 32

- the idea that we are rational within the limits of our cognitive capacity - provide workable solutions in spite of limited processing resources (e.g. using heuristics)