Forward Contracts
Long forward position - party that agrees to buy
Short forward - agrees to sell
Typically no money is exchanged upfront
Cash and Carry Arbitrage
Reverse Cash and Carry Arbitrage
Cash and Carry: If a forward/future is overpriced you:
sell forward –> borrow money –> buy spot asset
Reverse Cash and Carry: If a forward/future is underprice you:
buy forward –> borrow asset –> sell spot asset –> lend money
Forward Rate agreement (FRA)
Purpose: agreement to borrow (long) or lend (short) at a fixed rate in the future
Credit Risk in Forward Contracts
Futures are different from Forward….
Futures Contracts Notes
Value of a futures contract
current futures price - previous mark-to market price
How Interest Rates affect Forward and Futures
If Interest rates and assets are positively correlated
If interest rates and assets are negatively correlated
Note: For bonds the short can deliver any treasury bond over 15 years
Net Costs (NC)
storage costs - convenience yield
It makes the FP = S0 x (1 + Rf)^T + FV(NC)
FV (NC) = the future costs of holding the asset
This also will make contango occur
Net Benefits (NB)
It makes the FP = S0 x (1 + Rf)^T - FV(NB)
FV (NB) = the future benefits of holding the asset
This also will make backwardation occur
Eurodollar Deposits vs T-Bills
Eurodollar: U.S. dollar-denominated deposits outside the US
Eurodollars use ADD-ON interest (borrow $1M then pay back $1M plus interest)
T-Bills are discount instruments (only would borrow 980K)
Types of Options
Call: the right to buy an asset
Formula: Max (0, S - X)
Put: the right to sell an asset
Formula: Max (0, X - S)
European option: Can only be exercised at expiration
American option: can be exercised at any time prior to expiration
European Put-Call Parity
Formula: C0 + PV(X) = P0 + S0
Left side = fiduciary call
PV(X): zero coupon bond
Right side = protective put
Remember: PV of bond is X / (1 + R)^T
Synthetic call
Formula: C0 = P0 + S0 - PV(X)
Breakdown: Long put, long stock, short bond
Synthetic Stock
S0 = C0 - P0 + PV(X)
Long call, short put, long bond
Synthetic Put
P0 = C0 - S0 + PV(X)
Long call, short stock, long bond
Synthetic Bond
PV(X) = P0 - C0 + S0
Long put, short call, long stock
Binomial Model: Calls and Puts
Propability of up-move = 1 + Rf - D / U - D
D and U are opposites of each other. Up move of 1.15 means 1/1.15 is a down move of 0.87.
Example: S0 = $30, up factor is 1.15 and Rf = 7%, strike is $30
Step one: Up move is 30 * 1.15 = 34.5
Step two: Down move is 30 * .87 = 26.1
Step three: A call option would be worth $4.50 in the up state and $0 in the down
Step four: Probability of up state = 1.07 - .87 / 1.15 - .87 = 0.0.7143
Step five: C0 = (4.5 * .715) + ($0 * 0.285) = $3.00
Black-Scholes-Mertan Model
Only works for European options
Assumptions
Limitations
Delta
Definition: change in the price of an option for a 1-unit change in the price of the underlying stock (speed)
Call Range from 0-1
Out-of-the-money is closer to 0
In-the-money is closer to 1
Put Range is from -1 to 0
Out-of-the-money is closer to 0
In-the-money is closer to -1
Gamma
Definition: rate of change in delta as stock price changes (acceleration)
Swaps
Swap value: difference in the value of the fixed payments and floating payments
Replicating Swaps: Fixed-Rate Side
Replicated by:
Important:
Replicating Swaps: Off-market FRAs