EMO Power and developments

Question 1

How is hard power used?

Answer 1

Militarily - used defensively or offensively, as a deterrent or threat as leverage

Economic - control of another state’s actions through threatening economic penalties or offering favourable terms in exchange for compliance

Question 2

4/6

How effective is hard power?

Answer 2

Military power maintains security, especially nuclear weapons (eg Israel not threatened since developing nukes)
Military power can fulfil state territory interests (eg Russia in Crimea/Ukraine, China in the South China Sea)
Economic power can compel peaceful change (eg American-Japanese-European sanctions helped end apartheid in SA, UN sanctions on Iran after pursuit of nukes)
Economic power can create powerful structural dependencies (eg BRI threatens withdrawal of investment, US dominance of IMF/WB builds neoliberal economic dependency)

HOWEVER:
Military power triggers security dilemma (eg NATO expansion in Eastern Europe could be responsible for Russia’s incursion into Ukraine)
Military power ineffective against non-state actors (eg Baathist uprising against US/UK in Iraq, Hamas in Israel)
Military power may damage soft power (eg America in War on Terror, Russia in Ukraine)
Economic sanctioning power not always effective (eg sanctions on SA apartheid disadvantaged black Africans more, much less effective in non-democratic states eg North Korea for nukes)
Economic power can be mutually destructive if wielded aggressively (eg Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the US in 2018 damaged US economy
Economic power may undermine soft power (eg EU loans to Greece after 2008 dependent on liberalising economic reforms/austerity)

Question 3

How is soft power used?

Answer 3

Culturally - positive projection of values that makes them attractive to imitate

Diplomatically - negotiation/deal-making/treaty-engineering

Question 4

5/3

How effective is soft power?

Answer 4

Sporting events - China 2022 Winter Olympics/Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup, rivalries to assert superiority eg US-Soviet during Cold War
Music, art, film - “Cool Japan” (manga, anime, cuisine), “Korean Wave” (Squid Game, K-Pop)
Educational programmes - Rhodes/Fulbright Scholarship, China Scholarship Council (400,000 students)
“Health” diplomacy - offering free or discounted medical services to boost image eg Cuba “medical internationalism” (sending medical workers to aid other countries), China 500m COVID vaccine doses
Political culture and history - eg American Dream - challenged by the Chinese Dream

DISADVANTAGES:
Soft power takes a long time to build up - harder for states in the developing world
Soft power can be easily lost - political turmoil (eg Trump presidency undermining American Dream), evolving opinions on institutions (eg Barbados removing British monarch as head of state in 2022 as part of the Commonwealth), and war (eg Israel)
State-led soft power viewed with suspicion - eg China’s “Confucius Institutes” to promote Chinese language and culture

Question 5

What are the different state power classifications?

Answer 5

Great powers:
G7, Russia, China, India
Significant capabilities
Ability to project hard or soft power beyond immediate geographic region
Independent interests/objectives
Some control of global institutions

Superpowers:
USA, possibly Russia and China?
Overwhelming capabilities
Ability to project hard or soft power in all areas of the globe
Able to coerce great powers to align with their aims
Dominant role in global institutions and networks

Emerging powers:
Brazil, South Africa, Turkey
Becoming rapidly more powerful/influential in their region
Not quite great powers but nearly

Question 6

What are the implications of unipolarity/hegemony?

Answer 6

A system with one single pre-eminent state.

Realist:
Can establish worldwide peace via arms and the use of hard and soft power to achieve unitary objectives
Power-transition theory/Thucydides Trap - when challenged by other states, it will respond with violence eg WW2, War on Terror x China

Liberal:
If the hegemon can do anything, then it may start to disregard human rights/legitimacy of war eg War on Terror

Question 7

What are the implications of bipolarity?

Answer 7

A system revolving around two major states, with other states clustering to form blocs. Key example: the Cold War.

Realist:
States seek to establish balance to curb hegemonic ambitions of another - equilibrium develops peace and stability.

Liberal:
Conflict not impossible - near misses eg Cuban Missile Crisis/proxy conflicts eg Korea, Vietnam

Question 8

What are the implications of multipolarity?

Answer 8

A system with three or more states with significant global power with independent interests and goals. Key example: interwar era.

Realist:
States always self-interested so will seize power where it can be gained - even an alliance could disrupt the power balance.
Security dilemma increases chance of conflict as number of powerful actors increases eg 1930s Nazi Germany/Fascist Italy/Imperial Japan.

Liberal:
States forced to cooperate given no state has unilateral power - only way to secure solutions to global issues is collaboration eg war resolution (1 or 2) given no country was powerful enough to impose a solution.

Question 9

How has the world order changed since 2000?

Answer 9

2001 - US global hegemon, UN limited yet no country had scope to challenge US
2001-2009 (War on Terror) - US global hegemon yet sidelined UN, dominated brutally in the Middle East, backing of NATO
2009-present - multipolarity, different powers intervened in different places during the Arab Spring, emergence of greater threat globally from non-state actors eg terrorists therefore harder for states to counter. Challenge to US dominance by Russia/China/India largely economically.

Question 10

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of democratic states?

Answer 10

Characteristics:
Free and fair elections
Citizens’ rights protected by the rule of law
Accountable government
Separation of power
Healthy civil society eg organisations

Examples: Canada, Norway, Australia

Consequences:
Democracies unlikely to go to war with other democracies - Democratic Peace Theory
Democracies less likely to experience interstate conflict
HOWEVER some argue that democracy is not necessary for peace due to autocratic peace eg China/Russia/North Korea; democracies fight/support non-democracies due to “aggressive liberalism” eg Saudi Arabia supported in bombing Yemen by UK through Typhoons

Question 11

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of semi-democratic states?

Answer 11

Characteristics:
Elections occur, but are only partially free/fair
Some infringement on citizens’ rights
Accountable government, yet through protest
Weaker separation of powers
Civil society restricted

Examples: Turkey, Kenya, Thailand

Consequences:
Can have relations with both democracies and non-democracies - fickle in alliances, often viewed with scepticism

Question 12

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of non-democratic states?

Answer 12

Characteristics:
Elections happen, yet there is rarely genuine choice for voters
Citizen’s rights infringed by the state at will
Government unaccountable - mass protest can sometimes generate change
Almost no genuine separation of powers
Civil society stunted

Examples: China, Venezuela, Egypt

Consequences:
Potential for conflict, especially that originating in humanitarian intervention, due to differing standards of human rights

Question 13

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of autocratic states?

Answer 13

Characteristics:
“Symbolic” elections yet make no real difference
No concept of citizens’ rights
Government totally unaccountable - only through civil war
No separation of powers
No civil society

Examples: North Korea, Afghanistan, Myanmar

Consequences:
Greater potential for conflict due to liberal democratic dissent
No liberal cooperation in international organisations and alliances - isolationist and realist

Question 14

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of failed states?

Answer 14

Characteristics:
Formerly a state, yet has become unable to fulfil the necessary characteristics eg loss of control of territory, loss of monopoly on the use of force, loss of authority, inability to provide basic services, inability to interact with other states in the international community

Examples: Central African Republic (ethno-religious conflict - control of warlords), Somalia (split into regions dependent on governance eg ISIS, al-Shabab, Puntland, state), Afghanistan (no effective governance by the Taliban)

Consequences:
Rise in terrorism due to lack of preventative ability
Violation of human rights due to lack of preventative ability
Spill-over problems eg refugee crises in neighbouring countries (Syria and Libya to Europe)
Cannot participate in IR
Cannot prevent interventions eg Russia/Iran/West/Turkey in Syria
Do not pose a direct governmental threat to international order

Question 15

What are the characteristics/examples/consequences for global order of rogue states?

Answer 15

Characteristics:
A state considered to be threatening to international order - does not adhere to norms eg severe abuses of human rights, support for international terrorism, achievements through the use of force, possession of WMDs

Examples: North Korea (violation of Non-Proliferation Treaty, illegal treatment of “political prisoners”), Iran (protests brutally crushed eg Green Movement, open support to terrorists eg Hezbollah/Hamas), Russia (Crimea then Ukraine war crimes eg Bucha Massacre, support to Wagner group)

Consequences:
Active sponsorship therefore increase in terrorism
Active undermining of human rights, leading to intervention eg Bosnia
Spill-over of refugees into neighbouring countries eg Ukraine into Europe
Can participate in IR - more internally stable eg Russia in G20/UNSC
Maintain sovereignty therefore reduced risk of foreign intervention
Pose direct threat to other states eg North Korea nuclear threat

Question 16

Outline the development and spread of liberal economies

Answer 16

More popular:
More participation in the Washington Consensus eg China and Russia as part of the WTO
Increased role for private markets
eg Poland and Romania transition to EU single market after the Cold War
eg China encouraging domestic manufacturing and production to contribute to a global export model

Encountered significant obstacles:
Many countries remain committed to substantial state interventionism/opposed to free global trade eg 60% of China’s market capitalisation is accounted for by state-owned enterprises
Victory of global free trade overstated eg ongoing Sino-American trade war, failure of the Doha Round in the WTO

Question 17

Outline the development and spread of the rule of law

Answer 17

More entrenched:
Government cannot act unilaterally eg Trump’s Muslim Ban struck down by federal court, Conservatives checked by Supreme Court twice (2017/2019)
Spread to non-Western countries eg impeachment of South Korean president for declaring martial law Dec 2024

Encountered significant obstacles:
Government accountability weakened by crackdowns on free press eg police raids on BBC officers in India after screening a documentary critical of Modi, mass imprisonment of journalists under Erdogan
Xi Jinping removed two-term limit on Chinese presidency, allowing him to serve for life - monopolisation of power

Question 18

Outline the development and spread of democracy

Answer 18

More widespread:
Collapse of communist authoritarianism coincided with surge in democratisation eg Czechia, Slovakia, Poland
Half the global population lives where there is some kind of competitive election - accountability eg Modi/Erdogan

Encountered significant obstacles:
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has ultimate power over the political and legal system eg disqualification of “inappropriate” presidential candidates
“Democratic backsliding” more common through populist leaders eg Trump’s encouragement of the storming of the Capitol building after he lost the 2021 election
Undermined by external actors eg Russia in Moldova, Georgia, and Romania