1
Q
What do you need to consider to assess claims experience?
A
- Recent data taken (past few years) so relevant
- Trends e.g. claim amount inflation
- Homogeneous groups (risk cells) split by risk factors
- Credible groups
- Volumous
- Stable
- Consistent
- Consider competition
- Analyse overall experience then by subdividing eg. by member/type
- Split by:
Given list
2
Q
How will data for an experience investigation by split (and analysed if credible)?
A
- Type of contract
- Age/Sex/Location
- Smoker status
- Marital status
- Job/Industry (group)
6, Source of business - Dur_if
- Dur_claim
- Benefit conditions e.g. deferred period length
- Underwriting status
- Size of group (group)
3
Q
What data would you look at for a PMI claim experience investigation?
A
- Excess amount (PMI)
- NCD status (PMI)
- Hospital band (PMI)
- Type of procedure (PMI)
- Actual and expected claims (PMI)
- Surgeon/Consultant (PMI)
- Trend in claim amount escalation vs competitors/standard price index (PMI)
4
Q
Process of an expense experience investigation? (unit 14, 3.10)
A
- Split expenses into and analyse by required cells
- A possible split of expenses may be by
a) Salary/Salary related expenses
b) Property Costs
c) Computer costs
d) Investment costs
e) One-off capital costs (excluding computer purchases) - Exceptional items unlikely to reoccur will be excluded from the analysis
- A possible split of cells may be by:
a) Whole business of insurer
b) Business fund
c) Product line - We may divide further by single/regular premium
- Split also by RAPID COST
a) Initial/renewal cost
b) Claim
c) Termination
d) Investment - Split also by direct costs vs. overheads
- Commission excluded
- May be exceptions
Salary and Salary Related Expenses
- Make up large part of expenses as administering is labour intensive
- Fixed in real terms in short term
- Variable in longer term to meet changing levels of NB/EB
- Can split into groups by:
a) Staff who work in only one cell
b) Staff working in more than 1 cell
c) Staff entirely on overheads
d) Staff mixed with direct costs and overheads - For a) can directly allocate expense to cell, for b) use timesheet to proportion
- c) staff are obvious, d) staff split pragmatically
Property costs
- Notional rent to be charged for occupying building it owns
- Split by floor space in allocate according to salary
Computer costs
- Amortise cost of new computer over useful lifetime
- Allocate according to usage or something else sensible
Investment costs
20. Directly allocate to investment expenses and allowed for in investment returns
One-off capital costs (other than new computer)
- Amortise these over useful lifetime of item
- Include in overheads
5
Q
What are the large splits in an expense experience analysis? What isn’t included?
A
- A possible split of expenses may be by
a) Salary/Salary related expenses
b) Property Costs
c) Computer costs
d) Investment costs
e) One-off capital costs (excluding computer purchases) - Exceptional items unlikely to reoccur will be excluded from the analysis
6
Q
What is the staff split in an expense experience? How are expenses allocated to them.
A
- Can split into groups by:
a) Staff who work in only one cell
b) Staff working in more than 1 cell
c) Staff entirely on overheads
d) Staff mixed with direct costs and overheads - For a) can directly allocate expense to cell, for b) use timesheet to proportion
- c) staff are obvious, d) staff split pragmatically
Property costs
7
Q
What are the required ‘cells’ in expense experience?
A
- A possible split of cells may be by:
a) Whole business of insurer
b) Business fund
c) Product line
8
Q
How to split property/computer/investment/one-off costs in expense experience?
A
Property costs
- Notional rent to be charged for occupying building it owns
- Split by floor space in allocate according to salary
Computer costs
- Amortise cost of new computer over useful lifetime
- Allocate according to usage or something else sensbile
Investment costs
20. Directly allocate to investment expenses and allowed for in investment returns
One-off capital costs (other than new computer)
- Amortise these over useful lifetime of item
- Include in overheads
9
Q
Explain the salary/salary-related expenses in expense experience
A
Salary and Salary Related Expenses
- Make up large part of expenses as administering is labour intensive
- Fixed in real terms in short term
- Variable in longer term to meet changing levels of NB/EB
- Can split into groups by:
a) Staff who work in only one cell
b) Staff working in more than 1 cell
c) Staff entirely on overheads
d) Staff mixed with direct costs and overheads - For a) can directly allocate expense to cell, for b) use timesheet to proportion
- c) staff are obvious, d) staff split pragmatically
10
Q
If date of first sickness is 1/1/2012 and notification is 5/4/2012, with a 6 month deferred period, when is payout started?
A
1/7/2012
11
Q
Give the reasons to reinsure headings (unit 11, 1)
A
SAD LIFE (RST) Smooth results Avoid single large losses Diversify risk Limit exposure to risk Increase capacity to accept NB volumes Financial assistance Expertise Regulatory/Solvency/Tax Arbitrage
12
Q
List personal circumstance changes that MUST be disclosed
A
Age Sex Location of living (address/territory) Occupation Alcohol consumption Smoker status/habits Drug use Personal health Family health Hazardous leisure activities taken up Frequency/duration of overseas travel
13
Q
Describe how to find a retention limit (unit 11, 8)
A
- There are 2 possible ways to do determine a retention limit
Method 1: (minimum of reinsurance + fluctuation reserve) - Sum of the following 2 costs:
a) Cost of reinsurance
b) Cost of financing a risk experience fluctuation reserve (use simulation approach below to find) - If retention limit increases, (a) decreases and (b) increases
- We can find an optimum retention by finding min(a+b)
Method 2: (Simulated solvency levels) - Set a retention level to keep probability of insolvency below a specified level
- ie. Find retention level s.t the company stays solvent for 995/1000 scenarios say. Do this by:
- Use stochastic model for expected claim rates
- Estimate statistical distribution of risk experience costs based on varying retention limits
- Use stochastic model for expected claim rates
- Project expected claims, company assets and liabilities together
14
Q
What are the 2 ways to determine a retention level? (unit 11, 8)
A
- Minimise sum of Cost of Fluctuation Reserve + Cost of Reinsurance
- Determination by simulation of solvency levels (99.5th percentile)
15
Q
Why use initial underwriting for risk management? (unit 12, 1.2)
A
FORE AIDSS-APP
- Anti-selection - protect from
a) Particularly those lives who are so seriously impaired it’s impossible to assess the risk accurately
b) AS can lead to higher than expected Frequency/Cost of claims - Identify substandard lives whom special terms must be quoted
a) Note that a company would aim to write a large proportion of business on standard rates - Identify appropriate approach/premium level for 2.
- Fair classification of all risks
- Ensure morbidity experience = expected in pricing
- Reinsurance requires/better terms
- Over-insurance - reduce risk in large proposals
16
Q
What’s the story related to experience investigation data, including PMI
A
On 1/1/2014 (dur_if) Mum sells (distributor) a CI policy (type) to 1 (size of group) 27yo (age) Fat (underwriting status) Male (sex) Smoker (SS) Druggy (DS) Actuary (occupation/industry) Living in KND (location) By himself (marital status) On 1/2/2014 he starts claim (dur_claim After his deferred period (benefit conditions) He was treated by Dr Patel (surgeon/doctor) Of BUPA (hospital band) For toxic gas surgery (type of claim) For 20% off (NCD status) Which was £80 after his £20 excess (Excess) Which was unexpected (Actual vs. expected claims) Given todays prices (Trends in medical expense inflation vs. competition/prices)
17
Q
When thinking about the different types of staff and their expense allocations, what’s the story?
A
MP - work relates to 1 cell - direct allocation to the cell
CWH - multiple cells - split by time sheet
AS - overheads - direct allocation
RY - direct and overheads - split pragmatically
18
Q
What examples for property/computer/1-off expenses are there?
A
Property:
Total notional rent = 1000
Floor space = 20%
Salary = 10%
Computer: Cost = 100 Usable years = 2 Time spent on it for me = 100% Allocation in 1 year = 100*(1/2)*100%
One-off expenses: Buy hot air balloon = £20k Usable years = 3 So expense = 1/3 * 20k Hot air balloon goes OVERHEADS
19
Q
Purpose of calculating technical reserves
A
MIAnAmAR
M&A value
Investment strategy influence
Accounts - Liabilities shown in published accounts
Accounts - Liabilities shown in solvency supervision accounts
Accounts - Liabilities show in internal management accounts
Reinsurance arrangements assessment
20
Q
Principles of Investment
A
Version 1
a) . Select investments appropriate to NTC of liabilities
b) . These should be selected to maximise overall return on assets (investment income + capital gains)
c) . The extent to which (a) can be departed from to meet (b) depends, inter alia, on extent of company’s free assets and risk appetite
Version 2
- The company should invest to maximise overall return on assets
- Subject to the risk being taken on being within financial resources available
21
Q
Why do an analysis of surplus/profit?
A
NB CRED
- NB - Financial effect of writing NB
- Check - on valuation data and process if carried out independently
- Regulatory requirement
- Experience not expected - Find financially significant assumptions by looking at financial effect of experience not equal to valuation assumptions
- Distribution - Identify non-recurring surplus, enabling appropriate decisions on distribution to s/h or with-profits p/h
22
Q
Why do an AOEV?
A
MME RVP
- MI
- M&A
- Exec remuneration scheme data
- Reconcile values in successive years/Regs
- Validate calculations, assumptions, data used
- Provide detailed info for published accounts or company/parent company, particularly the value of NB taken on
23
Q
12 events to exercise an option?
A
1) Marriage - normal/start civil partnership
2) Divorce - normal/end civil partnership
3) Death of spouse/family member
4) Child birth/adoption of child
5) Salary change from promotion/change job
6) Buy new residential property
7) Mortgage/loan increase
8) Business expansion if own business
24
Q
How do you reduce risks of an option to increase sum assured without further health evidence?
A
- Limit exercise to special events and time limit after this
- Max increase (fixed or percentage of sum assured)
- Underwrite original contract on assumption option taken up for maximum amount
- Limit times allowed to exercise e.g. age/annually
- Publicise option to make sure many take-up not just unhealthy
- Attractive premium rates so less anti-selection
- Only offer to standard lives at outset, not special terms
- Reinsurance of option
25
Advantages/Disadvantages of formula approach? (unit 6, 3.7)
Advantages:
1. Simple application
2. Doesn't require sophisticated modelling package..
3. ..Quicker to run
4. Easier checking/audit
Disadvantages:
Doesn't allow for..SPPAND
1. Proper timing of events
2. Accumulation of reserves
3. Negative net cashflows in any period
4. Separate inspection of premium related cashflows
5. Dynamic returns/assumptions over time
6. Properly for capital needs
26
Typical cashflows? (unit 6, 4)
1. Premiums
2. Expenses - initial/renewal/claim
3. Commission - initial/renewal
4. Claims
5. Contribution to statutory reserves
6. Contribution to solvency capital requirements
7. Interest on cashflows and reserves
8. Tax
9. Reinsurance
10. Lapse rates
27
Explain cashflow techniques (unit 6, 4)
1. Developed to overcome formula approach problems
2. Widely used for long-term, formula still mainly for short term e.g. 1 year PMI
3. Difficulties in implementing the approach now are mainly overcome by commercial software packages
4. Sensitivity tests can be performed by varying assumptions
5. Iterations done to find premium to meet shareholder profit criterion
6. Stochastic cashflow modelling can be performed for complex products including guarantees and options
What it does but formula doesn't
7. Allows multi-state modelling which formula doesn't
8. Allows for shareholder return on capital (RDR) which formula approach doesn't
28
Compare the formula and cashflow approach to pricing (find premiums) (unit 6,3+4)
Formula:
Advantages:
1. Simple application
2. Doesn't require sophisticated modelling package..
3. ..Quicker to run
4. Easier checking/audit
Disadvantages:
Doesn't allow for..SPPAND
1. Proper timing of events
2. Accumulation of reserves
3. Negative net cashflows in any period
4. Separate inspection of premium related cashflows
5. Dynamic returns/assumptions over time
6. Properly for capital needs
Cashflow:
1. Developed to overcome formula approach problems
2. Widely used for long-term, formula still mainly for short term e.g. 1 year PMI
3. Difficulties in implementing the approach now are mainly overcome by commercial software packages
4. Sensitivity tests can be performed by varying assumptions
5. Iterations done to find premium to meet shareholder profit criterion
6. Stochastic cashflow modelling can be performed for complex products including guarantees and options
What it does but formula doesn't
7. Allows multi-state modelling which formula doesn't
8. Allows for shareholder return on capital (RDR) which formula approach doesn't
29
Big list of risks (unit 10)
```
Data
Claim rate/amount
Investment performance
Morbidity/mortality
Aggregation/concentration of risk
Lapse
Expense and expense inflation
Operational risk
Internal audit failure/fraud
Actions of management
Counterparty default risk
Regs/legs
Tax
Fraud
Option take-up
Guarantees biting
NB volume
NB mix (source/size/type)
Reputation
Competition
Anti-selection/non-disclosure
```
30
What controls on investments may be implemented by a regulator? (unit 9, 2.4)
Mismatching:
1. Hold a mismatch reserve
2. Limit on extent mismatching allowed at all
3. Must match by currency whatever the case
4. Valuation assumptions encourage matching
5. Returns to regulator demonstrate compliance
Other:
1. Type of assets which can invest
2. Amount a particular asset type can be used so solvency demonstration
3. Limit single counterparty/country exposure
4. Hold certain proportion of assets in certain class e.g. 50% gilts
5. Custodianship of assets
6. Self-investment
7. Effect choice through their relationship with basis used for valuing liabilities e.g. 1 asset by allow use of higher valuation assumptions
31
Developing an appropriate investment strategy in 20 points! (unit 9, 3.1)
1. Use stochastic model to project A/L/free assets for various investment strategies
2. Determine appropriate time frame for projection
3. Deterministic assumptions BE
4. Sensitivity/scenario testing may be carried out
Asset model:
0. Starting point to be current assets held
1. Investment income including timings/amounts
2. Reinvestment
3. Growth in investment income
4. Investment expenses
5. Inflation rates to be used for A and L
5. Stochastic model for income/capital growth, inflation
Liability model:
0. Model points to represent EB
1. Include benefit payments (amount and timing)
2. Benefit escalation
3. Probability of death before claim
4. Expense outgo
5. Premium income
1. A and L models should be dynamically linked
2. Calculate A-L at end of each year on supervisory basis, this should cover solvency capital required comfortably
3. Comfortable depends on regulatory requirements/other companies/support etc.
4. The stochastic model produces a statistical distribution of solvency levels for each investment strategy, hence a probability of future insolvency
5. We can identify from this probability, acceptable investment strategies e.g. solvent in 995/1000 scenarios.
32
Give possible reserves, S or L (and total number of S, L, overall), descriptions
S=9, L=8, tot = 12
1. UPR - SL - premiums not yet received for remaining insurance period
2. URR - SL - reserve for that needed above (1) due to poor pricing
3. IBNR - SL - claim event happened, not yet notified company
4. IBNER - S - event happened, insufficient detail to pay
5. CiT - S - event happened, notified, not yet assessed/recorded
6. OCR - SL - event happened, notified, recorded, not fully paid
7. Cat - S - and below, current year atypical, hold back reserves for future abnormal events
8. Eq - S
9. MM - SL - when mismatching A and L
10. Pol - L - expected future claims, expenses, premiums
11. Options - L - for policies moving ITM (bites)
12. Guarantees - L
33
How to find an investment strategy?
1, Stochastic model for A and L
2. Suitable timeframe
3. MP representing EB (or full data points)
4. Assumps to be BE
5. Liabs on current basis
6. Time 0 assets as current MV
7. A-L is of interest
8. Find A-L on supervisory basis at end of each year
9. Needs to be comfy above SCR
10. Comfy means in terms of regs/RA/comp
11. Using stoch and sims can find stat distn of A-L for different inv strat
12. Rerun model for various inv strat to optimise
13. Use the stat distn to find prob of ruin for each strat
14, e.g. solvent in 995/1000 scenarios
15. Stress and scenario testing will be done too, to find effect of incorrect assumptions
16. Stoch model of inv ret (I+C gains)
17 Expense inflation can be included in stoch model
18. Dynamic inv strat/assumps possible, depending on inv conditions
19. Optimise by finding strat with highest shareholder profit for allowed prob of ruin and free assets
ST1
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