What is the key difference between prospective and retrospective studies?
Prospective studies collect data going forward in time, while retrospective studies use historical data already collected.
What are the three main healthcare applications covered in this course?
Predictive Modeling, Computational Phenotyping, and Patient Similarity.
What is a cohort study?
Selects patients exposed to a risk factor and follows them to observe outcomes.
What is a case-control study?
Matches cases (positive outcome) with controls (negative outcome) based on specific criteria like age, gender, clinic.
What is the observation window in predictive modeling?
The historical time period before the index date used to extract features.
What is the prediction window?
The future time period after the index date where we predict the outcome.
What is the index date?
The reference point in time from which predictions are made.
What are common feature types in clinical prediction?
Demographics, diagnoses, medications, lab results, vitals, procedures.
What is feature selection and why is it important?
Choosing relevant features to include in the model to improve performance and interpretability.
Define True Positive Rate (TPR).
TPR = TP / (TP + FN) = True Positives / Condition Positive. Also called Sensitivity or Recall.
Define False Positive Rate (FPR).
FPR = FP / (FP + TN) = False Positives / Condition Negative.
Define Positive Predictive Value (PPV).
PPV = TP / (TP + FP) = True Positives / Prediction Outcome Positive. Also called Precision.
Define Specificity.
Specificity = TN / (TN + FP) = True Negatives / Condition Negative. Also called True Negative Rate.
What does the F1 score measure?
F1 = 2 × (Precision × Recall) / (Precision + Recall). Harmonic mean of precision and recall.
What is the ROC curve?
Plot of True Positive Rate vs False Positive Rate at different classification thresholds.
What is the confusion matrix?
2×2 table showing predicted vs actual labels: TP, FP, FN, TN.
What is prevalence in classification?
Prevalence = Condition Positive / Total Population. Fraction of population with disease.
Why is accuracy a poor metric for imbalanced datasets?
Can achieve high accuracy by always predicting majority class, missing minority class entirely.
What is Mean Absolute Error (MAE)?
MAE = (1/n) × Σ|y_i - ŷ_i|. Average absolute difference between predicted and actual values.
What is Mean Squared Error (MSE)?
MSE = (1/n) × Σ(y_i - ŷ_i)². Average squared difference between predicted and actual values.
What is R² (R-squared)?
Coefficient of determination: proportion of variance in target explained by model. R² = 1 - SS_res/SS_tot.
What is Gradient Descent?
Iterative optimization algorithm that updates parameters in direction of negative gradient to minimize loss.
What is Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD)?
Gradient descent using one sample (or mini-batch) at a time instead of entire dataset.
What is the bias-variance tradeoff?
Bias = error from model assumptions. Variance = error from sensitivity to training data. Complex models: low bias, high variance.