Future Climate Change

Question 1

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CIMP5)

Answer 1

• name of coordinated effort between global modeling centers to create a common set of climate change experiments
• number 5 because the latest IPCC report is the 5th one to appear

Question 2

RCP8.5

Answer 2

• most aggressive scenario associated with radiative forcing
• about 8.5 W/m2 in 2100
• “business as usual scenario

Question 3

RCP2.6

Answer 3

• least aggressive scenario associated with radiative forcing
• 2.6 W/m2 by 2100
• mitigation forcing scenario

Question 4

describe the warming commitment

Answer 4

• we are already committed to significant warming because of the inertia of the climate system
• the emissions we have already produced will stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years even if we stop emitting today

Question 5

describe the warming distribution under RCP8.5 & RCP2.6

Answer 5

• more warming over continents than oceans
• more warming over high latitudes than low latitudes
• suppression of warming in the northern North Atlantic (thermohaline circulation)

Question 6

why is there greater warming over continents than oceans

Answer 6

• continents have a smaller effective heat capacity than the ocean –> warm more quickly than the ocean

Question 7

describe the intensification of the hydrologic cycle

Answer 7

warming atmosphere –> increase in evaporation –> more water vapor to the atmosphere continuously –> atmosphere can hold a limited amount of vapor –> more rain

Question 8

describe the net effect of the increase in precipitation

Answer 8

• not a uniform increase
• dry areas get drier
• wet areas get wetter (Hadley Cell)

Question 9

describe permafrost and where it is located

Answer 9

• soil that remains below 32 degrees F for at least two years
• mostly surrounding the Arctic ocean
• characterized by an active surface layer, extending anywhere from a few centimeters to several meters deep, which thaws during the summer and refreezes during the winter
• permafrost layer remains frozen

Question 10

why is the loss of permafrost concerning

Answer 10

• permafrost contains methane, which is released when the permafrost melts
• has potential to enhance warming further since it’s a greenhouse gas