What is an inductive argument? example?
An argument where it is possible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false, but the premises nevertheless give good support to the conclusion, they make it probable.
An argument where the premises do not guarentee the conclusion but make it probable, has inductive force.
- P1 All ravens observed so far have been black
- _________________________________________
- C All ravens are black
What does probable mean and not mean?
How is it presented?
Probable means more likely to be true than false.
Probability is not an alternative to truth and falsity. it is still either true or false. but it expresses likelyhood of truth.
We express probability on a scale of 0 to 1 or as a fraction
•Definition: An argument is inductively forceful if and only if the conditional degree of rational expectation of the truth of the conclusion, with regard to the premises, is greater than ½.
When is an argument inductively sound?
•Definition: An argument is inductively sound if and only if it is inductively forceful and its premises are true.
What is gamblers fallacy?
- Inferring from more frequent past occurrence of one type of event that it is less likely to happen in future, or from less past frequency that it is less likely to happen in future (where the events are independent).
- Example: someone reasoning that because they have been in a car crash in the past, which is not very common, they’re not likely to be in one in the future.
What is base rate fallacy?
- Distinguish information about the base rate of a phenomenon, which is the general occurrence, from specific information. The base rate fallacy occurs where people confuse the base rate with the specific.
- P1 95% of Jains are vegetarians
- P2 Only 8% of the UK population are vegetarians
- P3 Sonia is a vegetarian
- _________________________________________
- C Sonia is a Jain
