Group polarization
endency for group decisions to be more extreme than themembers’ individual decisions
Mr. A group polarization example, Stoner (1961)
Myers & Bishop, group polarization, groups discussing racial issues
-had groups discuss racial issues- high-prejudice groups  became more prejudiced - low-prejudice groups  became more tolerant!
potential cause of group polarization: normative influence
normative influence-you gain conviction if others’ opinions match yours- social comparison theory (Festinger, 1954): you compare yourself with others to determine what is correct, appropriate and desirable- it is the PROCESS of discussion (rather than the content) that produces change- [X] BUT, polarization obtained without any interaction…
potential cause of group polarization: informational influence
informational influence-new info may sway your opinions- during discussion, pro-risk: pro-caution arguments were 6:4 (Burnstein & Vinokur,1977)- it is the content of discussion (rather than the process) that produces change-likelihood is LOW ppl will share info/opinion only THEY have, emphasis on SHARED knowledge[X] BUT, groups typically rely on common knowledge, rather than sharing new info
potential cause of group polarization: self-categorization
self-categorization-group is not an external influence, but rather provides you with a social identity-membership in a group helps you define your OWN individual identity- you are not a part of the group as much as the group is a part of YOU- social influence is informational and normative: you evaluate info rationally, but values are normatively established- when you perceive yourself to be a group member, you should polarize away fromyour own personal position and toward the group norm-pro/con of this approach: flexible, explains a lot, but that loses explaining power…
groupthink definition (irving janis)
“a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive ingroup, when the members’ strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action”
groupthink
groupthink model
antecedent conditions -> symptoms of groupthink -> symptoms of defective decision making -> low probability of successful outcome
antecedent conditions
symptoms of groupthink
symptoms of defective decision making
how to minimize groupthink
pros/cons of groupthink theory
CHECK: evidence, historical accounts of Pearl Harbor, Viet Nam war, Watergate, Chernobyl,9/11[X] empirical evidence is equivocal; groupthink found in both GOOD and bad decisions[X] subjective! how do you define a dynamic influential leader?[X] based on post hoc reports
space shuttle challenger: basics
Rogers Commission: CAUSE of Challenger Accident
Rogers Commission: CONTRIBUTING cause of Challenger Accident
“The DECISION to launch the Challenger was flawed.”1. decision-makers unaware of contractors’ written recommendation advising against launch below 53 °F (launch date forecast: 26- 29 °F) (NASA just administration, remember)2. were also unaware of opposition by engineers, protesting management positions onlaunch
People involved in launch decision
TOPLevel I: Associate Administrator for Space FlightLevel II: National Space Transportation Program Manager Level III: NASA program managers for shuttle elements- Johnson and Kennedy Space Centers- Marshall Space Flight Center (responsible for SRBs) -these centres dispersed thru states, not centrally located!Level IV: shuttle element contractors (design & production)- Morton Thiokol Inc. (SRB maker)- Rockwell International (orbiter maker) Information flows from Level IV up to Level I
Moorhead, Ference, & Neck (1991), evidence for groupthink challenger
Esser & Lindoerfer (1989): attempted quantifaction of groupthink
overall analysis:antecedents: 11 pos, 6 negconsequences: 32 positive, 7 negativeBUT based on rogers commission report-no influential leader-no evidence for all antecedents (group not cohesive, on diff parts of country!)-who comprised the “group”? only level III managers?
Schafer & Crichlow (1996) -quantitative re-analysis of Janis’ crises
-correlated antecedents with ACTUAL (info-processing) errorsbasically, zero:-group homogeneity-high stress-group insulationlittle significant-lack of methodical proceduresmoreso-lack of impartial leadershipSO, not all antecedents EQUALLY important, so suggest change model toantecedents of groupthinkbranching arrows to-> info-processing errors-> unfavorable outcomes
Hirokawa, Gouran, & Martz (1988) factors of challenger explosion: cognitive
Hirokawa, Gouran, & Martz (1988) factors of challenger explosion: motivational
Hirokawa, Gouran, & Martz (1988) factors of challenger explosion: social factors