1
Q
Age of Dithering
A
State of indecisive agitation
2
Q
Scientifically well-established by mid-1960s:
A
- CO2 traps heat and has a warming effect on the climate (going back to 19th C)
- CO2 from burning fossil fuels could accumulate in atmosphere and drive warming
- 1958: (Charles Keeling; Mauna Loa); confirms humans can & are altering atmospheric chemistry
- 1965: Reported climate change risks to U.S. President
3
Q
By early-1980s, high-degree of scientific confidence that:
A
- Atmospheric CO2 will reach double pre-industrial levels in 21st C
- Could push temps above 1.5oC (and possibly much higher)
- Growing media attention
4
Q
1-2 C warming could
A
- Trigger major melting on Greenland + west Antarctica (and associated sea level rise)
- Produce drought in many populous and agriculturally significant regions
5
Q
1988: James Hanson
A
- Discussed multiple scenarios for warming risks
6
Q
In 1990s
A
- Strong statements about causation by national academies of science of US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada, China, India, Brazil, etc.
- Climate science growing ever more clear about drivers, risks, and urgency of big GHG emission cuts
7
Q
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (est. 1988) (IPCC)
A
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) + UN Environmental Program (UNEP)
- ** key organization for assessing and communicating state of earth systems science **
8
Q
3 Working Groups of IPCC
A
- Science
- Impact, Adaption
- Mitigation
9
Q
1990 IPCC report:
A
- Extent of “warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude of natural climate variability….”
10
Q
2007 IPCC Report:
A
- “Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, the benefits of mitigation actions [most of all, cutting GHGs] initiated now may result in significant avoided climate change only after several decades.
- This means that mitigation actions need to start in the short-term in order to have a medium- and longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies.”
- Fossil energy related industries have exact opposite goal (working to ensure lock-in)
11
Q
2019 Special IPCC Report on 1.5 C
A
- Positive feedbacks get really dangerous beyond this point + window closing to get atmospheric GHG concentrations to a level where this could be possible
- NEED annual emissions cut by ~ ½ by 2030 for any hope
- BUT current path: 16% increase (from 2010) by 2030 (based on commitments)
- This alone will ‘lock in’ warming of 2.7 C
12
Q
Who is the Denial Industry
A
- Range of industries opposing various environmental regulations (e.g. acid rain, pesticides, etc.)
- Big funding for think-tanks leading attacks on climate science
13
Q
How? Denial Industry
A
- Distort evidence and/or discredit scientific expertise to a degree that leaves many confused and doubtful about the level of scientific confidence and/or implications
- Sow confusion and doubt, and inaction on fossil fuel consumption
14
Q
Mark Carney
A
- Cutting CO2 emissions to level needed to contain warming to 1.5oC “would render the vast majority of reserves ‘stranded’ — oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable…”
15
Q
Big Coal, Oil, and Gas: fears of ‘stranded assets’ sometimes referred to as ‘carbon bubble’
A
Clear recognition that global disciplines to drastically limit production & consumption (caps or heavy taxes) would cost Big Coal, Oil, and Gas trillions of $$ of known assets
16
Q
What does mitigation need
A
sharp and strong descent
17
Q
Biggest source of electricity on world scale
A
- Coal 64%
- Biggest source of Emissions
18
Q
Negatives of Coal
A
- Biggest source of emissions
- Needs biggest and fastest decline
- Will blow 1.5 target and make impossible
19
Q
Government plans of fossil fuels
A
- Double volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than target for hope of limiting warming to 1.5C (and far more than consistent w/ 2oC) –
o 460% more coal
o 83% more gas
o 29% more oil
20
Q
India electricity total emission history
A
- Far below P.C. average
- Significant growth since 1990
- Major coal consumption
21
Q
China electricity total emission history
A
- 1/3 of world electricity
- Majority Coal
22
Q
Oil and Natural Gas History
A
- Top 20 oil fields discovered before 1979
23
Q
Middle East and Oil
A
- ½ oil reservoirs and much larger shares of conventional reserves
24
Q
Melting poles and oil
A
- Estimated arctic contains at least 22% of all undiscovered oil and gas
- Race to control previously unreachable oil and gas
25
Unconventional Oil Reserves
- difficult + costly
- energy intensive (lower EROI)
- environmentally damaging
26
Burtynsky
- Biggest open pit mining project in the world
- Enough carbon to be game over for safe levels (James Hansen)
27
Orinco Oil Belt
- Venezuela
- Different sort of heavy oil
- Double then Alberta
28
1st COP (Conference of Parties)
1995
29
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
1992
30
Precedent Montreal Protocol
- 1987
- Recognition certain chemicals were burning holes in the ozone layer
- Developed countries differential responsibility for rapid phase out ozone depleting chemicals
31
KYOTO Protocol
- 1997 / 155 Nations
- Rich countries with greater relative contributions to the problems must make relatively bigger and faster cuts
32
2 Commitments of Kyoto
- Developing Countries
- Developed Countries
33
Developing countries commitment to Kyoto
- China and India
- No commitment to emission cuts at outset
- recognition: small % of GHGs over preceding century
34
Developed countries commitment to Kyoto
- Varying targets to either cut or slow the rate of increase of CO2 and other GHG emissions
- By 2000: back to 1990 levels
- By 2012: cuts 5.2% vs 1990
35
Kyoto and 2001
- USA withdrawn from KYOTO
- George Bush won election and refused to harm economy
- Australia followed
36
Kyoto and 2005
- More than vague promises
- Example, Canada promised 6% cut but was 33% above target in 2005
37
Kyoto and 2012
- Repeated annual COP meetings before and after 2012 to est. stronger successor
38
Paris Agreement
- 2015
- GHG emission reduction targets 2 to 1.5
- Promise of dynamic cycle of increasingly ambitious targets
- Nations check in + strengthen commitments over time (+ role of climate finance)
39
2021 – Glasgow “phase up-phase down"
- China pledged to stop financing external coal power development
- ‘unburnable’ has been acknowledged, primarily around coal
Climate Emergency
flashcards
Decks in class (4)
# Cards
