What types of science goes into identifying species specific threats? Use the example of the Loggerhead Shrike.
Loggerhead shrike: migration tracking, mark recapture, land use and planning surveys, nest monitoring, predator and prey surveys, climate surveys, breeding bird / population surveys.
New science that could help: niche modelling, public consultation, economic incentives, climate modelling, nano technology, quantification of threats, comparative studies with other similar sp,
What types of science goes into identifying species specific threats? Use the example of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander.
- Existing science: Water quality, population dynamics, life history, environmental tolerance, vernal pool monitoring, Cosewic reports, baseline environment assessments
- New Science: adaptive management, stormwater predictions, FGIS suitable habitat, stakeholder engagement, environmental remediation, public awareness/ assessing perceptions citizen science, relocation soil science, climate change adaptation, ecosystems approach, and dispersal corridor,
What are some conservation trends in Canada ?
- ecosystem structure and function/ ecological integrity
- close watch on resource based industries
- New parks and protected areas
- Public environmental values
- Economic benefits and costs
- Adaptive Management
What is uncertainty?
The lack of a definite outcome
What is probability ?
The chance that an outcome will occur
What is risk?
The probability that an undesirable outcome will occur
Give an example of risk and uncertainty.
- Weather forecasting
L> We will experience some weather tomorrow but not sure of the exact outcome (uncertainty)
L> There will be a high chance of rain (probability)
L> There might be risk of flooding (risk bc flooding is an undesirable effect)
*conservation deals with these as well
What is a risk distribution?
probability density for a given outcome
L> x value of graph represents possible outcomes
L> y value of graph represents the probability of each outcome
*graph is a histogram
*mode = the most likely outcome
** To get the riskiest / favourable probability you need to add up the individual probabilities for whichever case
What are the two risk approaches science or policy can take ?
- Risk tolerant
2. Risk averse
What is the role of risk and uncertainty in conservation policy?
- Natural world is uncertain due to random processes in pops and comm; population trends are often assessed with probabilities
- The effect of policy is uncertain, due to stochasticity in nature, as well as uncertainty in how policy will actually perform (ex: poacher behaviour despite anti harvest policy)
- Ultimately, the science of conservation is assessing ecological risk and understanding which strategies will min the risks
Ellis et al 1992 conducted a study investigating the probability of extinction in wildlife populations of the Hawaiian crow (wild population models without consideration of stochastic info in environment vs considering it in the models). What was the take home message of this study?
- None of the management strategies offer a certain outcome for saving the species BUT some are better than others. Effectively linking science to policy is to use best available science (models and other avail info on the sp/ecosystem) to inform which conservation strategies HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
- When stochastic info was included in the models, it brought the probability of extinction up in each management strategy plan to almost equal value
- Most likely the best model is also the most expensive SO we need a middle ground model, balancing the trade off of effectiveness and cost.
- Letters by each model: indicate effectiveness (Low, Medium, High)
What is the biggest challenge for developing conservation policy from an ecology perspective?
- Knowing what forms of scientific evidence, risk assessment, and knowledge transfer most effectively increase the probability of achieving ecosystem management objectives.
- It is difficult to accurately predict ecological outcomes as a result of conservation policy but evidence based policy increases the probability of success
What factors are considered when assessing conservation status in Ontario?
- biogeography
- environmental factors
- biological factors
- indirect human factors
- direct human factors
- challenges for management
- approaches for management
What are four key points about woodland caribou and their predators in Ontario?
- Caribou mainly forage on lichen, found in boreal forests (black spruce, jack pine). Caribou need a large range to support low density predator avoidance strategy
- Direct exploitation exists - First Nation subsistence hunting, but low impact
- Main predator is wolf, but this predator generally avoided with low-density strategy (caribou do not live in large herds)
- Wolves are not abundant in boreal due to low density strategy - they prefer open areas, because that is where food is…
What anthropogenic influences are of great concern for woodland caribou in Ontario and why?
- roads and other linear features (pipelines, hydro corridors) + forestry
- human disturbances like development clear forest patches, causing succession and more mixed, regrowing forests. These more open habitats are preferred by moose and white tail deer which are preferred prey of wolves.
- Typically woodland caribou distribution would not overlap with any of these species but increased disturbance etc is allowing these prey species to move into woodland caribou habitat bringing with them wolves.
Caribou population is function of?
(human forest change) + (roads + linear features) + (deer and moose) + (wolves) + habitat quality [disturbance, composition, and patches]
L> resulting in a battle for space so that the low density strategy of caribou can be maintained.
Explain the objective of the risk based approach to Conservation Policy from Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014).
- Objective: to provide direction on the integration of range condition into activity review and assessment and when planning and authorizing activities within caribou ranges to achieve self sustaining populations.
- Environment Canada produced an empirical model that predicts the likelihood of persistence of a given caribou population relative to the amount of cumulative disturbance within a range.
Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014):
-What evidence is range condition based on?
- population size
- population trend
- habitat disturbance
- the amount and arrangement of habitat
- ** each line of evidence informs a different aspect of range condition, however population trend is the primary line of evidence influencing determination of range condition
Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014):
-In this policy do they state the every activity that occurs within a caribou population’s range will be negatively impacting the habitat?
- no, not every activity will lead to habitat destruction or degradation
- Habitat categorization provides a framework for identifying which areas of habitat a species may be able to tolerate more or less alteration to. Determining whether a proposed activity is likely to damage or destroy habitat requires the consideration of the activity details, which parts of habitat are likely to be altered by the activity, and how the alteration may affect the species ability to carry out its life processes
Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014):
- What are the range condition categories?
- Insufficient
- Uncertain
- Sufficient
(bottom up is increasing poor condition)
Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014):
- What are the habitat protection categories?
- Category 1: High use Areas: lower tolerance to alteration
- Category 2: Seasonal Ranges: moderate tolerance to alteration
- Category 3: Remaining areas of the range: higher tolerance to alteration
Range Management Policy in Support of Woodland Caribou, MNRF (2014):
- What are the activity details used in management decisions?
- location and extent
- proximity
- timing
- duration and persistent effects
- frequency
- permanency
*** Range condition + Habitat protection + Activity details = Assessment of adverse effects non sp and habitat protection under the ESA , leading to either compliance or contravention
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Introduction22
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Adaptive Management & CB at Federal Level41
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Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC)56
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Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA)49
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Invasive Species Policy and Ecology33
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Federal Terrestrial Protected Areas50
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Marine Protected Areas33
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Urban Conservation Policy27
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Dan Krauss Guest Lecture1
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Tyler Schulz Guest Lecture1
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Nicole Latulippe Guest Lecture4
