Factors that generate longevity risk
Longevity Swap Contracts
Q-Forward Contracts
• Valuing Buy-In Asset
o Pension trust (not the employer) acquires buy-in contract, accounted for as a plan asset
o Plan assets are recorded at fair value
o First approach – fair value of the buy-in contract directly measured at each measurement date
Initially the fair value would be based on the purchase price of the contract
In subsequent measurements, fair value would be estimated based on the contract’s “exit price”, or amount at which contract could be sold to third party
• Includes considerations similar to what was used in the original pricing
o Second approach – based on valuation of insurance contracts that are not annuities; should be reflected at fair value, but surrender value can be used as proxy for fair value
• Valuing Buy-In Projected Benefit Obligation
o First approach – obligation would continue to be measured with the traditional discount rate, mortality, and other assumptions used by the employer.
Expect the buy-in contract asset to exceed the value of benefit obligation because discount rate inherent in obligation would be higher than buy-in contract (mortality may also be different)
o Second approach – Value of benefit obligation is set equal to the fair value of the buy-in contract asset value at each measurement date
Use of a rate at which the obligation could be effectively settled – which the buy-in contract could be considered
Considered acceptable to use mortality reflected in value of the buy-in contract
Actuarial loss will need to be measured at next measurement date to match the (generally higher) purchase price of the buy-in contract
• Buy-In Due Diligence
Authority to invest, pricing/transaction costs, counterparty risk and coverage, contract terms, plan wind up
Buy-Outs
Risk Transfer Decision Considerations
Properties of Successful DC Plan
DC Plan Sponsor Fiduciary Duties
Duty of Care, Duty of Loyalty, Duty to Delegate, Duty of Diversification, Duty of Impartiality, Duty to follow statutory constraints, duty regarding co-trustees, duty to act in accordance with trust agreement
DC Plan Administrative Considerations
Challenges of Selecting TDF for DC Plans
o Non static asset allocation and wide range of glide paths even for funds with the same “target date”; may not be interchangeable
o Very long investing horizon makes glide path difficult to evaluate
o Less historical data available for target date funds (oldest target fund is 20 years old)
o Monte Carlo analysis can simulate thousands of possible allocations that a glide path could take to calculate the probability of success (and failure) for investors; inputs, assumptions, and outputs may be difficult to obtain
Considerations of Selecting TDF for DC Plans
o Longevity risk or market risk (Glide paths)
Plan sponsors should keep their workforces’ demographics and overall pattern and level of savings in mind when choosing target-date funds.
o Passive or Active
Target-date assets are shifting to passive
Passively managed target-date series are potentially easier than actively managed series for plan sponsors and investors to understand and monitor
Few managers have improved performance with the selections they’ve made beyond the funds’ asset allocation and expenses
o Price (Expense Ratio) / Fee
Fees continue to fall at target-date series
Series with lower asset-weighted expense ratios also tend to have better fee level rankings
o Fund Managers’ Performance
When evaluating the merit of these various managers, tenure can be a helpful quantitative measure
o Fiduciary Considerations
Sponsor has fiduciary obligations to the plan, ensuring that participants have opportunity to diversify appropriately, that funds offered are in themselves sufficiently well diversified and prudent
o Education and communication
For funds available under a self-directed savings plan, it is necessary to provide participants with sufficient information and education to allow them to make informed investment choices
Advantages of Lifestyle Funds in DC Plans for EEs
o Reduce transaction costs.
o Most people don’t fully understand the investment issues, and can’t create a well constructive investment portfolio
o Employees could achieve higher return based on their estimated risk tolerance
o Approach A - allows investors a little more flexibility and customization
o Approach B - Adjust the asset allocation for employees over time. Most people don’t regularly rebalance their portfolios. Lifestyle funds manager will do this.
Disadvantages of Lifestyle Funds in DC Plans for EEs
o Approach A - Require the participant to review the allocation regularly to ensure that it remains appropriate for their circumstances
o Approach B - The process assumes that all people become more risk averse at the same rate due to allocation shifts
o Most participants choose target date at retirement date (age 65), resulting in a very conservative portfolio. Could choose target date that is later than the retirement date
o Still suffer large loss in bad market due to more equity exposure.
o Participants could over diversify by holding across several lifestyle funds.
Advantages of Lifestyle Funds in DC Plans for ERs
o Satisfy duty of care, diversify and delegation, duty to make property productive
o Safe harbor default investment option, and might transfer investment risk to employees
o Lifestyle funds offer a certain level of investment advice in pre-packaged vehicle and help plan sponsors meet fiduciary obligations.
Disadvantages of Lifestyle Funds in DC Plans for ERs
o Even for the same the target date, different funds return could be totally different.
o Employer still has duty of care. Needs to select best funds and investment managers.
Advantages of Hedge Funds in DB Plans
o Professional managers better equipped to evaluate a hedge fund performance.
o Create more diversification of assets, and many of the strategies employed (short positions, etc.) are designed to reduce the volatility of returns
o Investment of DB assets in a hedge fund is a form of delegation
Disadvantages of Hedge Funds in DB Plans
o The lack of transparency of some hedge funds makes monitoring difficult
o Much less liquid: demographics of the plan need to be considered, as well as plan features. For example, plans that pay lump sums may demand a higher level of liquidity
Advantages of Hedge Funds in DC Plans
o May be appropriate as part of target date fund since risks can be hedged
Disadvantages of Hedge Funds in DC Plans
o Designed for sophisticated investors, may not appropriate for DC plans
o Strict redemption requirements and penalties, meaning that a DC plan can’t simply exit
• Hedge Fund categories
o Relative Value
Managers identify relationships between securities, looking for when current pricing deviates from the manager’s expectations. Trades structured that will profit when prices revert to normal relationships.
o Event Driven
Managers identify corporate events they expect to affect valuations and construct trades to extract value when event occurs.
o Equity Long/Short
Managers develop view on stocks and express those views by going either long or short to reflect the manager’s view.
o Tactical Trading
Includes macro managers and managed futures.
• Macro managers develop views on broad economic themes and implement using various instruments
• Managed futures trader develop views on a variety of market and implement those views with futures contracts and currency forwards
Risks of Investing in MBS
Characteristics of Hedge Funds
• Constraints: Hedge funds allow investment managers to engage in pure active management, with no consideration of a benchmark, and no constraints on the ability to use short selling, leverage, instruments and strategies
• Regulation: In the United States, the SEC does not regulate hedge funds.
• Fee structure: fund fees include a fixed management fee, a proportional participation performance fee, and a highwater mark.
• Lack of Transparency: most hedge funds will not reveal the assets held, and protect information on short positions.
• Short lives: The half-life of hedge funds is about 2 ½ years
• Illiquidity: Most funds allow redemption on a monthly basis or less often.
o Redeeming investors must notify the hedge fund manager well in advance of the redemption date, decreasing liquidity.
• Capacity: high performing funds may be able to take in a limited amount of capital.