L33) Deglobalization

Question 1

What is de-globalization?

Answer 1

The slowing process of globalization

Question 2

Was Globalization slowing before COVID years? Were there signs?

Answer 2

Yes, we had been seeing a downward trend in globalization in: (4)

• beginning in the Great Recession (trade GDP eases off & Import Intensity slows)
• backlash against globalization
• Consequences of globalization
• Rodrik’s Political Trilemma De-globalization

Question 3

Signs that globalization is slowing down: Consequences of globalization

Answer 3

• increased Within-Country Inequalities
• increased Discontent

Question 4

What does Rodrik’s Political Trilemma of De-Globalization entail?

Answer 4

one of the signs that globalization is slowing down

Political Trilemma of Deglobalization: world economy is facing a tradeoff (1 is sacrificed, you cannot have all 3).

Elements: Democracy, National sovereignty, Global Integration

Question 5

What does the Trilemma tell us about globalization?

Answer 5

Due to a ride in democracy and national sovereignty, global integration is thus traded off and globalization begins slowing

Question 6

How did COVID contribute to the de-globalization process?

Answer 6

• Movements of people & capital slow
• National manufacturing capabilities restructure, inward turn (increase demand in PPE calls for a necessary decrease in int’l dependency)

Question 7

What was the global human toll of COVID-19 like?

Answer 7

Global human impacts of COVID were very uneven due to uneven economic impacts & growing income inequalities (2)

On int’l, nt’l, rgn’l, inter-regional, municipal impacts

Question 8

What are some of the uneven international impacts of COVID? (OECD Countries)

Answer 8

• Unprecedented collapse in GDP (European countries faced the first brunt of economic contractions - 12-13%)
• Projections for post-COVID months: V & K-shaped recessions
  -> K-Shaped Recession: financial market goes through quick recovery, commercial market does not

Question 9

What are some of the uneven national impacts of COVID? (Canada)

Answer 9

• real GDP drops 17%
• Imports/Exports drop sharply, in 2022, return to pre-COVID numbers
• CPI: prices have only come back down in last 6 months

Question 10

What are some of the uneven regional impacts of COVID? (Montreal)

Answer 10

Incomes are directly tied to brunt of COVID effects (death rates) => clear negative relationship (in Montreal)

Describes clear socioeconomic disparities: for visible minorities, gender-based, service-based

Question 11

What are some of the municipal inter-regional impacts of COVID? (Nova Scotia)

Answer 11

Access to internet vs % of people not using internet
* Urban vs Rural areas
* % of people not using the internet who do not have a computer (10-25% of these people)

(lasting impact on young kids, online school)

Question 12

What might the future of cities look like with the impacts of COVID? A big city Exodus?

Answer 12

Cities will continue to be important, here to stay. It is unlikely that urbanization will be derailed (depends on duration)

Longterm effects (3): social scarring, working remotely, environmental/urban reform

Opportunities for cities to prevent future pandemics (3): agglomeration economies, demographic transformations, environment/size considerations

Question 13

How did COVID impact global impoverished people?

Answer 13

• Pre-COVID: steady downward trend in poverty rates thanks to Pro-Poor Inclusive Growth (Ex: MDG)
• During COVID: people became poor (World Bank: 9.4%->8.9%)

Question 14

What did the geography of COVID’s poverty impacts look like?

Answer 14

• South Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa were most affected
• Middle-income countries became the ‘new poor’ (4/5 of baseline sufferings)

Question 15

Example: Case of Peru

Answer 15

longest lockdown, highest MR

• income was not a determining factor of COVID effects
• regionally varying impacts (Rural vs Urban)
• Urbanization of Poverty: Total Urban Poverty (new cases emerge) & Extreme Poverty Increase

Different Experiences: Rural Areas were less affected, while Urban Centers were a ‘Locus of Outbreak’

Question 16

As a result of globalization, who is considered the ‘New Poor’?

Answer 16

Urbanites: Employed (skilled, educated); Manufacturing (services, commerce); Formal sector

Question 17

What kind of policy measures have come out of COVID? (‘new poor’)

Answer 17

Policy measures to (2):
* address & try to offset the impacts on: health, education, & jobs

• promoting inclusive economic growth & upward mobility by tackling: inflation, political crises, taxation reform, infrastructure investments

Question 18

Outcomes of COVID:

Answer 18

COVID-19…:

Created a new type of ‘poor’ w/ political & social implications

Will not end globalization, but reshape it
* rather a realignment of some of the key trends from the Great Recession