Mystical numbers - which bias is it linked to?
Seeing patterns in numbers eg 1:11 - is it too often to be a coincidence?
Illusory relation:
- we mistakenly believe it happens often when it’s just random coincidences
- usual numbers are especially noticeable => high salience, selective memory
Broken door close button - does the button have an effect?
Many door close buttons are actually placebos!
=> Illusion of control
- we often miss the fact that it’s a placebo
- the door closes after we push the button, A leads to B
- we don’t really time it, we could think of the lack of immediate effect as a delay, so we believe our action caused the door to close
- sequence of events
More examples:
placebo buttons
gambling
superstitious routines
Persistence of false beliefs
1. neglect missing info
Example: selection criteria with unis
Company only hires Ivy League graduates
Example: standard treatments
Would likely get good candidates - confirm their belief
But, to get the best employees? We can’t evaluate this due to missing information (we don’t know how graduates from other unis would have done)
Example 2:
If you always take the vitamin supplements and recover in 1-2 days, u don’t know if u could recover just as fast without it
Persistence of false beliefs
2. confirmatory evidence more salient
Prophecy example
Event vs non-event
=> so if the prophecy/prediction does not come true, unlikely to remember it
=> but if it does, the confirmation is more noticeable
Persistence of false beliefs
3. tend to seek confirmatory evidence
Example: test for extroversion scale
Tendency to answer “yes” to all the questions, so include items that are associated with introverts and extroverts respectively
The expected bias is more “agree” responses => confirmation bias, we tend to focus on the presence of extroversion traits, rather than the lack of it
=> likely to find extroversion in all the ppl that take the test then
Look for absence of extroversion traits to distinguish introverts and extroverts
Persistence of false beliefs
3. tend to seek confirmatory evidence
Wason card example
Ppl usually select 3 and the circle (can only confirm the hypothesis)
But the correct answer should be 3 and the square
=> bc the evidence could refute the hypothesis, that is how we evaluate it
=> if the square had an odd number on the back, we would know the hypothesis is false
Persistence of false beliefs
4. biased interpretation of ambiguous info
Referees and tongue map example
=> bias due to expectation! allows us to interpret ambiguous info (we use our knowledge and experience)
=> re-enforces false beliefs!
Example: referees’ judgment
- when they evaluate penalties
- Frank & Gilovich (1988) found that there were more penalties for players wearing black
=> black is associated with the bad guy / referee thinks the team has a bad reputation and “enforces it”
- tongue map: u know what u are supposed to “expect”
Persistence of false beliefs
5. counterevidence often explained away
How do we deal with contradictory evidence?
Gambling example
We tend to apply scrutiny in selective way
Example: gamblers interpret wins and losses differently
wins: predictable, discount the random elements, accepts them
losses: accounted for by atypical factors, explain them away
How do we avoid bias?
- be aware of where u could possibly be going wrong => consider possibility of coincidence
- be aware of missing info (sometimes the info is unavailable)
- be aware of potential for bias (u are also susceptible to bias)
- study science (process of thinking like a scientist)
Ineffective health remedies
- could be dangerous
- how did they persist for so long?
=> will to believe (social factor), vulnerable patients’ pov open to possibility of hope
=> end up w/ false beliefs (doctors too)
Spontaneous improvement
- gave a treatment and expected it to work
- ppl recover
- but could have recovered without the treatment
=> but we think the treatment has an effect
Scientific approach
- controlled clinical trials, have a treatment vs control group for the possibility of spontaneous recovery
- double blinds study (researcher biases/expectations)
- statistical analysis of effects to ensure they are not random fluctuations
- predetermined objective criteria
Example(s) of scientists being wrong and failed replications
- Craniology (biased interpretation to confirm stereotypes)
Failed replications:
- ego depletion (after doing a difficult task (exterting willpower) u will be less resistant to sweets (less willpower) )
- power pose: doing the power pose will affect your thinking => accept more risk and higher testosterone
