The Surprise of the Soviet Collapse
- undermined the realist theory
- a world without geopolitical rivals to the US hegemony
- globalization and the primacy of international and economic policy
US Power in the 1990s
- US military spending was 1/3 of global military spending
- unemployment dropped
- US budget deficit went from 290 bil in 1992-236 bil surplus in 2000
- the zenith of US soft power
The First Persian Gulf War
- Iraq has fifth largest oil reserve
- institutionalization of ethnic tribalism by the British after WWI
- 1963 Baathist coup in cooperation with the CIA
- the takeover by Hassan Al-Bakr and Saddam Hussein in 1968
1st Persian Gulf War Timeline
- saddam invades iran 1980
- eight yrs of war
- economic losses 644 bil iran and 453 bil on the iraq side
- US policy flips from opposing Saddam to supporting in mid 80s
- after the war Iraq had 42 bil in debt
When did Iraq invade Kuwait?
1990
Elements of Globalization
- global economic integration
- communications revolution
- growth of tourism
- proliferation of international organizations
- US soft power
- shrinking world
What was Clinton’s foremost foreign policy goal?
To foster globalization and to position the US at its head.
Fukuyama’s End of History
- at the end of the war, ‘end of history’
- the ideological evolution of mankind has reached its end
- the universalism of Western liberal democracy as the final form of political structures
- the universalization of economic liberalism as the ideal economic model
What is a criticism of Fukuyama’s end of history?
Ignores nationalism and religion
Joseph Nye: Soft power
getting what you want using persuasion rather than coercion. All countries have the potential to develop their soft power
- realists downplay the importance of soft and cultural power
-
What are the realist viewpoints on the unipolar moment?
- was the structure in the 1990s unipolar or multipolar?
- other states will start to counterbalance the US, especially if the US yielded to “imperial temptation”
- The main threat to American dominance is the life for today nature of US domestic politics. This approach would replace internationalism with American first isolationism
- Traditional bearers of power such as China will begin to challenge US power
Christopher Layne: The Unipolar Illusion
The official view in Washington after the collapse of the Soviet Union was to perpetuate the newly established unipolar order in world politics. The unipolar order is a temporary one which will eventually give way to a multipolar one bc the other states will inevitably balance against the US
What is the structural phenomenon of great power emergence?
differential growth rates and the state of anarchy guarantee it
Gilpins theory on hegemons
Hegemons will decline bc the costs of sustaining the hegemony will erode its economic strength and the hegemonic paradox will diffuse economic and technological power to other states.
What were the two other unipolar hegemons in history?
France (1660)
Great Britain (1860)
Realist approach to how American foreign policy should be shaped
- instead of adopting a strategy of preponderance, the US must accept the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity and adjust its strategy to safeguard its interest during and after its transition.
- this policy should be based on strategic independence and offshore balancing
According to Michael Mastanduno, what is the main objective of US foreign policy after the Cold War?
To preserve the country’s preeminent global position
What did Waltz say about foreign policy after the Cold War?
Bipolarity still endures in an altered state. However, this analysis does not hold up to Waltz’s own definition of great power capabilities in the sense that even though the new Russia might still be strong militarily nevertheless it lacks other capability attributes such as a strong economy and political stability
Why do states balance?
In response to threat, and while threat and power overlap they are not identical
The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity is not inevitable and will depend on US behaviour.
How to shape US foreign policy?
The US will adopt policies of reassurance towards status quo states, confrontation towards revisionist states and integration towards undecided states.
What are two examples of status quo powers?
Germany and Japan
What are two examples of undecided states?
China and Russia
What is emphasized in foreign policy, moving forward?
Multilateralism.
