Do we live in a more violent world?
Not more violent but differently violent:
20th century:
- International and civil wars killed approximately 40 million people; domestic repression 169 million (communist Russia and China 97 million); domestic repression more violent than international conflict/warfare
- Political repression
21st century:
- Fewer war-related deaths in the 2010s than any time before in the previous 100 years
- 2016: 560000 violent deaths, 68% murders, 18% wars
- 2011: before the civil/international war in Syria: most violent conflicts Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan
- Fewer casualties in warfare than in the drugs cartel wars in Mexico
- Advance of medial science (=fewer casualties)
What is war?
- ‘War is the continuation of politics by other means’ (Karl von Clausewitz)
- Twofold: violence and politics
- An event in organised use of military force by at least two parties that reaches a level of violence (>1000 battle deaths)
In BAIS:
- In ‘politics’: domestic political violence, terrorism
- In ‘international politics’: international war, civil war, and intervention
What are the major types of war?
- Civil war (domestic war)
- International (inter-state) war
What are various dimensions of international war?
- Conventional war
- Nuclear War
- ‘Postmodern war: hybrid war, cyber war
Why are there wars, when they are so costly?
Conflicting interests over important issues: territory, resources, ideology, but also: hegemony, fear (security dilemma)
- War serves specific interests (hegemony, security dilemma, resources)
What is the Realist explanation of war?
- Anarchy, state egoism, self-help (classical and neo-realism); power maximization to defend themselves against perceived agression of others
Prevent war? balance of power best way to prevent war
What is the Liberalist explanation of war?
- Anarchy and state egoism
- Economic nationalism and autarky
- The crucial variable of domestic ‘order’
How to prevent war: work together → democracies seem to be able to work together (through institutions like UN; states learn from previous mistakes)
What is the Critical theory explanation of war?
- Nature of capitalism/imperialism
- Putting blame on hegemonic powers (USA); USA as reason why world is violent - USA permanent conflict since World War
- ‘Masculine’ nature of international politics (feminist theory)
Are we indeed going through a new global Cold War?
Positive:
- Unforgiving, confrontational discourse, about actions and ‘nature’ of the other, as well as the future of relations → more confronting language
- Escalating reprisals (between ‘East’ and ‘West’) - trade wars
- Renewed confrontation over Europe as epicentre of the conflict (Ukraine heart of confrontation between Russia and US)
Negative:
- Is it a global conflict? Not comparable to Cold War. Not global conflict going on.
- Not an ideological conflict: not one ‘ism’ against another ‘ism’. World today looks more like pre-WWI and not pre-WWII or Cold War; WWI is war between like-minded central powers
- Not a permanent threat of nuclear war.
What is the three essential difference between current warfare, and warfare during the cold war? (Mary Kaldor)
Kaldor: 21st century is different from 20th century war
New war:
- Wars fought in the era of globalisation; Globalisation is omni-present aspect of warfare
- Take place in context where authoritarians states have weakened; Strong democratic states prevent (internal) wars from happening
- The distinction between state and non-state, public and private, external and internal, economic and political, and war and peace have broken down; wars linger on for a long time
What are Gerritsen’s additions to Mary Kalder’s theory on New Wars?
- Civil war rather than inter-state wars (or a combination? Syria?); Hard to distinguish these wars
- From states’ regular armed forces to a combination of state and non-state actors – (‘privatization’ of warfare; asymmetrical wars)
- Return of privatization
- Serves many interests: not under the same laws as the state - From geopolitical interests and ideology to identity-driven wars (the right to power in the name of a specific group) (past religious wars)
- Identity driven wars: wars driven by religion/ nationalism
- Russia’s tactics not co-defined by democratic systems at home - From military battles to control of the population – violence is largely directed against the civilian population (more barbaric?)
- Violence targeted against the citizens
- military dimension is more blurred; difficult to distinguish - From state-financed to predatory private finance
- Combining military and non-military means and tactics (hybrid war)
How was the Cold War and post-Cold war changed as a military conflict?
Cold War:
- Threat to use nuclear weapons
Post Cold war:
- Less risk of nuclear war between two main powers
- Nuclear proliferation has become increasingly visible risk
What are aspects of Nuclear proliferation?
- Continuation of nuclear strategies (US, Russia) - still an arms race, but at lower level
- New incentives to become nuclear power (India, Pakistan, 1998); new states have acquired nuclear weapons –> But also less chance of big conflict between India and Pakistan (Mutually assured destruction)
- Availability of nuclear weapons and technology (Former SU)
- Nuclear proliferation and international terrorism
- Risk to our time: availability of nuclear weapons
- Greatest danger might not be states using nuclear weapons but non-states/ rogue states
- Diplomatic conflicts about states’ nuclear ambitions (Iran, North Korea)
What is hybrid warfare?
- Blurring the lines between war and peace (military and non-military actors): methods of conflict, involving the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non-military measures
- Information as weapon (information warfare); First victim of any war usually comes with truth
- Beyond traditional propaganda, qualitatively and quantitatively: disinformation, fake news, hacking, etc.
What is Cyber Conflict?
- Happens in cyber spage
- cyber espionage, attacks (financial fraud, political pressure)
- Cyber-terrorism
- Cyber war: massive cyber-attacks for political reasons and retaliation
- Not all acts of cybercrime are acts of cyber war. Cyber terrorism and cyber war are war related issues, which are so new that they haven’t really happened yet.
There is always a link between cyber world and real world
What is Cyber Terrorism?
- Different form terrorists using cyber-space (information, sharing knowledge, propaganda)
- Political motive
- Digital/cyber means and/or aims
- Spreading fear; main aim of terrorist groups
- Physical consequences for the non-cyber world (infrastructure, information, etc.)
- Zero casualties of cyber-terrorism in history
What are the ethical dimensions of warfare?
- Realpolitik: war should be conducted by practical rather than ethical condiserations
- Pacifism: commitment of peace, rejection of warfare
- “Just War” theory: under what conditions are wars justified or not?
What are two different types of Just Wars?
Just wars: war that meets certain ethical standards and therefore is justified.
- Jus ad Bellum: just choice to go to war; last resort, just cause, legitimate authority, right intention, reasonable prospect of success)
- Jus in Bello: just conduct in war; discrimination, proportionality, humanity
What two different kinds of ethics politicians may want to consider when entering war?
- Ethics of conviction: beliefs (in human rights, democracy, stability)
- Ethics of responsibility: or can you only start a war when you have a good idea of it’s consequences
