Why is climate change mitigation so challenging?
- Uncertain in form and extent
- Gradual and insidious onset rather than directly confrontational
- Long term threat rather than immediate, but it requires action now
- Broad in impacts and remedies
- Effective remedies are beyond the scope of anyone nation; it requires international co-operation of unprecedented dimension and
complexity
Outline 4 types of measuring mitigation benefits
- Type 1: Currently measureable market impacts
- Type 2: Market impacts not readily measurable
- Type 3: Insurance value against high damages (WTP)
- Type 4: Non-market impacts
What is the cumulative carbon budget from 2011-2100 to have a 66% chance of staying below 2oC?
And the remaining budget for energy related emissions?
1,000 Gt CO2
600 Gt CO2
Outline the carbon budget approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: Equal emissions entitlement
Proportion of global carbon budget allocated on basis of population
Outline the Index-based approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: Historical responsibility
Share of mitigation determined by share of historical emissions
Outline the Contraction and convergence approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: Equal emissions entitlement
Country emissions follow a pathway where they contract to converge on the same emissions per capita by a specified date
Outline the Common but differentiated convergence approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: Equal emissions and historical responsibility
As above but countries further differentiated on their level of economic development. Countries below per capita threshold can carry on with BaU.
Outline the Cost proportional to GDP per capita approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: capacity to pay
Targets set based on equal mitigation costs
as a percentage of GDP
Outline the Income classification approach approach to climate justice
Underlying principle: capacity to pay
Targets set based on mitigation costs as a percentage of GDP but higher % for wealthier countries
Outline the responsibilities of Annex 1 countries in the UNFCCC
Annex 1: developed countries
- meant to take the lead
- Specific mitigation targets and timelines for developed countries
- Developed countries expected to provide funding and resources (technology transfer) to developing countries
What is grid parity?
the same cost as grid power per unit of energy
Advantages & disadvantages of solar PV
Solar PV: converts photonics energy from sunlight directly into electrical energy.
Advantages:
- Low ghg emissions per unit of electrical energy produced.
- Able to operate economically at a range of scales
- CPU electricity falling rapidly, reaching grid parity in many regions
- Low operating and maintenance costs, no moving parts, silent and no direct emissions.
Disadvantages:
- Intermittent
- Requires an inverter to convert from DC to AC to transmit to the grid
- Upfront capital cost remains high relative to conventional generation
Advantages & disadvantages of CSP
CSP uses lenses or mirrors to concentrate a large area of sunlight onto a small area. This light is converted into heat which drives a heat engine to generate electricity.
Advantages:
- Low gig emissions per unit of electrical energy produced.
- Time of electricity output may be controlled by storage of heat in molten salt.
- No direct emissions.
Disadvantages:
- Only economical at a large sale and in regions of high direct sunlight, must be close to an urban centre.
- Relatively expensive.
- Often large projects with long construction times and high upfront capital costs.
Outline solar thermal panels
Solar thermal panels: convert photonic energy from sunlight directly into heat to provide hot water.
Has been cost effective in many regions for over 30 years.
The IEA project cost decline of 43% in Europe from 2010 to 2020.
Advantages/ disadvantages of wind power
Wind turbines convert the wind’s kinetic energy into electrical power.
Advantages:
- Low ghg emissions per unit of electrical energy produced.
- CPU electricity is competitive with fossil fuels in many regions.
- Can be built on farms without causing long term disruption to agriculture.
- No direct emissions associated with operation.
Disadvantages:
- Intermittent.
- Upfront capital cost remains high relative to conventional generation.
- Strong local opposition to appearance and noise in some areas.
- Good wind sites are often located in remote locations, requiring potentially costly transmission to cities where the electricity is needed.
Advantages/ disadvantages of hydropower
Hydropower is the most globally deployed renewable electricity source, and generated 17% of world electricity, and 70% of renewable electricity in 2015.
Advantages
- Low ghgs emissions per unit of electrical energy produced.
- Electricity output may be controlled by release of dam.
- CPU electricity is below that of fossil fuels in many regions.
- No direct emissions associated with operation.
Disadvantages:
- Often large projects with long construction times and high upfront capital costs.
- Site specific, requiring potentially costly transmission to cities.
- Possible loss of habitat due to barrier waterlife and flooding for dams.
Relative merits of wind, nuclear & gas
Wind power:
- High capex
- low operating costs, no fuel costs
- output variable
- low GHG emissions
Nuclear power:
- High capex
- high operating costs, low fuel costs
- output constant
- low GHG emissions
Gas turbine:
- Intermediate capex
- high fuel costs
- output may be rapidly ramped up or down
- intermediate GHG emissions
5 metrics for comparing energy generation technologies
- Typical output
- Reliability of supply
- Cost
- Emissions intensity
- Land use
Electricity generation technologies do not generate at full capacity all of the time. This may be due to:
- Planned or unplanned maintenance.
- Intentional ramping up and down of supply to meet demand/ respond to economics of generating at current electricity price.
- Unavailability of fuel (including wind, sunlight, and water for renewables).
Outline system balancing
System balancing relates to the relatively rapid short term adjustments needed to manage fluctuations over the time period from minutes to hours.
Outline reliability impacts
Reliability impacts relates to the extent to which we can be confident that sufficient generation will be available to meet peak demands.
Outline the three categories of frequency response reserves
Enhanced Frequency Response:
which must provide power (or reduce demand) within one second and provide power for a further nine seconds.
Primary Frequency Response:
which must provide power (or reduce demand) within ten seconds, and provide power for a further 20 seconds.
Secondary Response:
which must provide power (or reduce demand) within 30 seconds, and provide power for a further 30 minutes.
Outline Loss of Load Probability
LOLP measures the statistical likelihood that any load (demand) is not met, and it is usually a requirement of electricity systems that LOLP is kept small.
Variable generation increases LOLP for same total generating capacity.
Outline the relation between capacity credit and LOLP
Capacity credit represents the amount of capacity reserve required per capacity credit to keep LOLP the same as using purely thermal plants.
