What was the conventional reasoning behind why states build nukes?
Neutralize security threats; there as a last resort if all other means of defense should fail
The idea of nukes being used to neutralize security threats is consistent with what kind of realism?
neo-realism (states are concerned with safety)
What are some other reasons states have nukes?
Domestic factors
- businesses want to make a profit
- countries want prestige
What are the internal factors that could lead to nukes?
- pressures from within the government and military bureaucracy
- reasons of prestige/domestic popularity
What is an example of prestige/domestic popularity with nukes?
In the late 90s, India and Pakistan both tested nuclear weapons. The populations were very excited, celebrated, handed out candy in streets
Nuclear pork
building more nuclear weapons creates jobs and builds factories and infrastructure (example of pork-barrel spending)
what is the scientific-industrial-military complex?
laboratories make nuclear weapons innovations
- they seek more funding and prestige; create coalitions with sponsors within the professional military
- seek support from politicians to allocate state spending
What is the military-industrial complex?
- coined by US pres. Eisenhower in outgoing address (Jun 1961)
- US arms industry was gaining undue influence in politics
- -US arms industry could shape government decision making
What does Sagan argue?
- nuclear weapons are not a solution to a security problem
- security threats are an excuse to develop nuclear weapons programs where there are already domestic pressures
What is the NPT?
- launched in 1970
- prevent countries from developing nukes
- 190 member states
What are some faults of the NPT?
- does not pressure existing nuclear powers to eliminate existing weapons
- non-members haven’t faced and consquences
- states aren’t provided with incentives to join and adhere to NPT
Who are some notable non-members of NPT?
North Korea, Israel, India, and Pakistan (all nuclear powers)
Edelman and company argue that the US “red lines” _______ deter Iran
would not
What do Edelman, etc. believe could happen if Iran becomes a nuclear power?
- embolden Iran and damage Middle East status quo
- diminish US power and influence in the region
- destabilize region because it would become a multipolar nuclear region
- arms race (ex. Saudi Arabia)
What do Edelman, etc. suggest US do?
increase US military presence to boost leverage, deterrence, “back-up” threats
What does Waltz argue will/could happen if Iran becomes a nuclear power?
- stabilize region because “power begs to be balanced” (Israel is currently only nuclear power in Middle East)
- Iranian leaders have a history of being rational, they seek security, don’t want to initiate nuclear war
- historically, countries become more cautious after developing nuclear weapons (ex. China)
Name some events that lead to the US-Iranian Rivalry
1951: democratically-elected Iranian Pres. Mossadegh nationalized oil reserves
1953: Mossadegh was overthrown in a coup orchestrated by the US CIA and British MI6–West installed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi
1979: Pahlavi overthrown in 1979 Islamic Revolution
1979: Iranians seized 52 US embassy staff, held them hostage for 444 days (released in 1980)
1983: Iran helped found and support Lebanese rebel group Hezbollah, which bombed US marines barracks in Lebanon, killing 242
2003: Iran began sponsoring Shi’a militants in Iraq (continues to sponsor) that have killed US troops
What are some general Iranian sentiments about US?
- felt US was surrounding them after Afghanistan and Iraq invasions
- refers to US as “Great Satan”
US keeps Iran on list of countries that ________
sponsor terrorism
Describe the history of the negative relationship between Iran and Israel
- Iran refers to Israel as “Little Satan”
- Israel has fought Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon since 1982 (Hezbollah’s main use is against Israel)
- Iran is widely suspected of bombing Israeli embassy in 1992 and the Jewish Center in 1994 in Buenos Aires
- Israel regards Iranian nuclear program as existential threat
- Israel has killed Iranian nuclear scientists, detonated a bomb at an Iranian missile base (2011) and launched computer viruses to disrupt Iranian uranium enrichment
What are some examples of Israel striking first?
June 7 1981: Israeli jets destroyed Iraqi nuclear reactor, ending Saddam Hussein’s nuclear ambitions
September 2007: Israelis jets destroyed a nuclear reactor in Syria
-Israeli jets have repeatedly destroyed weapons stock in Syria destined for Hezbollah
What did Israeli PM Netanyahu talk about in his speech to US congress in March 2015?
- claimed Iran was greatest threat to world peace
- warned that Iranian bomb would have catastrophic consequences
- speech was widely regarded as a direct appeal to US and Israeli public opinion
What was the US-Iranian nuclear deal?
US and EU would lift crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran slowing the enrichment of uranium and opening its nuclear facilities to inspection
-2015
What did Israel think of the US-Iranian deal?
Some debate about topic
- PM Netanyahu warned that it would be a “historic mistake”
- two former chiefs of Mossad Spy service spoke in favour of the deal
- Retired Mossad chief Meir Dagan said bombing Iranian nulcear installations before diplomacy had been exhausted was “the stupidest idea” called Iranian leaders “very rational”
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Realism and its varieties104
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US vs China vs Russia36
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Nuclear Weapons26
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Liberalism39
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Rational Choice and Game Theory34
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Bureaucratic and Cognitive Approaches15
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Democratic Peace Theorem42
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Asymmetric Warfare: The costs of limited war30
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Omnibalancing: authoritarian head of state as unit of analysis26
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Constructivism46
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Marxism and Critical Theory in IR38
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Feminist Theory in IR34
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The End of History and the Clash of Civilizations34
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Impacts of Climate Change21
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Post-2016 IR: What is going on?17
