Outocmes Are Predictable?

Question 1

Voting patterns are predictable and constant.

Answer 1

From October 1974 to 2010, Labour won more semi-unskilled working class (DE) votes in every single general election than the Conservatives.

Question 2

Against - The media can make and break a political party.

Answer 2

This is clearly shown in the 1992 general election, which backed John Major. It resulted in the famous headline ‘It was the Sun wot won it’.

Question 3

For- opinion polls accurately indicate outcomes of general elections

Answer 3

E- 2017 and 2019 Tory majority correctly identified
2024 labour majority

Question 7

Conclusion

Answer 7

General elections are most likely to be predictable when the incumbent has a large majority. For example when Blair had gained a 179 seat majority in 1997, it was no surprise he won in 2001. Despite this, on a consistent basis, to assume that they are ‘stable’ or ‘predictable’ is inaccurate given the arguments presented in the source.