Fundamental Economic Principles
A. Fiscal policy
1. _ and _ set budget
B. Monetary policy
1. Federal Reserve Board—three tools
Fundamental Economic Principles
A. Fiscal policy
1. President and Congress set budget
B. Monetary policy
1. Federal Reserve Board—three tools
Fundamental Economic Principles
C. Balance of payments
1. Balance of trade—largest part
2. Value of the dollar
D. Top down
Fundamental Economic Principles
C. Balance of payments
1. Balance of trade—largest part
2. Value of the dollar
D. Top down
Business Cycle
A. Economy
1. GDP
2. _
3. Economic indicators (LO3)
a. Leading
b. _
c. Lagging
4. Business cycle
Recession vs Depression: # of quarters
GDP measures the value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders, by citizens and non-citizens alike. GNP measures the value of goods and services produced by only a country’s _ but both domestically and _.
Business Cycle
A. Economy
1. GDP
2. CPI
3. Economic indicators (LO3)
a. Leading
b. Coincident
c. Lagging
4. Business cycle
Recession vs Depression: # of quarters, 2 vs 6
GDP measures the value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders, by citizens and non-citizens alike. GNP measures the value of goods and services produced by only a country’s citizens but both domestically and abroad.
Business Cycle
a. Sector rotation
1) Follows the _ cycle
2) Sell those sectors that are _
3) Buy those sectors that are _
B. Industry
Business Cycle
a. Sector rotation
1) Follows the business cycle
2) Sell those sectors that are peaking
3) Buy those sectors that are expanding
Inflation and Deflation
A. Inflation: Decrease in purchasing power of monetary unit
1. Measured by _ ( _average _ for a basket of goods and services)
B. Deflation: Opposite of inflation
1. Can lead to _ GDP rate
C. Core inflation: CPI minus _
D. _ inflation: Inflation is steady until an economic shock
Economic indicators
Inflation and Deflation
A. Inflation: Decrease in purchasing power of monetary unit
1. Measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) ( weighted average cost for a basket of goods and services)
B. Deflation: Opposite of inflation
1. Can lead to negative GDP rate
C. Core inflation: CPI minus food and energy
D. Inertial inflation: Inflation is steady until an economic shock
Yield Curves
A. Positive (normal) yield curve
B. Negative (_) yield curve
C. Flat yield curve
D. Yield spread (credit spread) compare:
Yield Curves
A. Positive (normal) yield curve
B. Negative (inverted) yield curve
C. Flat yield curve
D. Yield spread (credit spread) compare:
Balace Sheet
Current Assets - Can be converted into cash in 12 months
Fixed Assets - property, _, factory. Usually can be depreciated. Unlike current assets, cannot be easily converted into _.
Intangible Assets - rights, trademarks, _
Balace Sheet
Current Assets - Can be converted into cash in 12 months
Fixed Assets - property, equipment, factory. Usually can be depreciated. Unlike current assets, cannot be easily converted into cash.
Intangible Assets - rights, trademarks, goodwill
Balance sheet
Current Liabilities
Current liabilities are corporate debt obligations due for payment within the next 12 months. These include the following:
■
■
■
■
■
Long-Term Liabilities
Long-term debts are financial obligations due for payment after _ months. Examples would include bonds and mortgages.
Current Liabilities
Current liabilities are corporate debt obligations due for payment within the next 12 months. These include the following:
■ Current long-term debt- any portion of long-term debt due within 12 months
■ Accounts payable- amounts owed to suppliers of materials and other business costs
■ Accrued wages payable- unpaid wages, salaries, commissions, and interest
■ Accrued taxes- unpaid federal, state, and local taxes
■ Notes payable- the balance due on equipment purchased on credit or cash borrowed
Long-Term Liabilities
Long-term debts are financial obligations due for payment after 12 months. Examples would include bonds and mortgages.
_ equity, also called net worth or _ equity, is the stockholder claims on a company’s assets after all of its creditors have been paid.
Shareholder equity = total _ - total _.
On a balance sheet, shareholder equity = capital _ + capital _ + _
Capital stock includes preferred and common stock, listed at par value. Par value is the dollar value per share assigned when a corporation’s owners (the stockholders) first contributed capital. Par value of common stock is an arbitrary value with no relationship to market price. As you will see in Unit 12, it plays an important role with preferred stock.
Capital in excess of par, often called additional paid-in capital or paid-in surplus, is the amount of money over par value that a company received when issuing its common stock. For example, if the par value was $1 per share and the stock was issued at $ 5 per share, there is a paid-in surplus of $4 per share.
Retained earnings, sometimes called earned surplus or accumulated earnings, are profits that have not been paid out in dividends. Retained earnings represent the total of all earnings held since the corporation was formed less dividends paid to stockholders. Operating losses in any year reduce the retained earnings from prior years.
Shareholder equity, also called net worth or owners’ equity, is the stockholder claims on a company’s assets after all of its creditors have been paid.
Shareholder equity = total assets - total liabilities.
On a balance sheet, shareholder equity = capital stock at par + capital in excess of par + retained earnings.
Capital stock includes preferred and common stock, listed at par value. Par value is the dollar value per share assigned when a corporation’s owners (the stockholders) first contributed capital. Par value of common stock is an arbitrary value with no relationship to market price. As you will see in Unit 12, it plays an important role with preferred stock.
Capital in excess of par, often called additional paid-in capital or paid-in surplus, is the amount of money over par value that a company received when issuing its common stock. For example, if the par value was $1 per share and the stock was issued at $ 5 per share, there is a paid-in surplus of $4 per share.
Retained earnings, sometimes called earned surplus or accumulated earnings, are profits that have not been paid out in dividends. Retained earnings represent the total of all earnings held since the corporation was formed less dividends paid to stockholders. Operating losses in any year reduce the retained earnings from prior years.
Shareholder equity = Net worth = _ stock at par + capital in _ of par + retained _.
Net worth = assets - liabilities = total assets - intangible assets - liabilities.
Capitalization =_ + _
Capital structure = the relative amount of _ and _ that composes a company’s capitalization.
Shareholder equity = Net worth = capital stock at par + capital in excess of par + retained earnings.
Net worth = assets - liabilities = total assets - intangible assets - liabilities.
Capitalization = equity securities + long term debt
Capital structure = the relative amount of debt and equity that composes a company’s capitalization.
Income Statement
B. Income statement reflects period of time
1. _ income = Sales (revenues) minus expenses
Income Statement
B. Income statement reflects period of time
1. Operating income = Sales (revenues) minus expenses
SEC Reporting
A. Form _-K
1. Event driven
B. Form _-K
1. Annual _ financial report
C. Form _-Q
1. Quarterly financial report
D. Annual report
SEC Reporting
A. Form 8-K
1. Event driven
B. Form 10-K
1. Annual audited financial report
C. Form 10-Q
1. Quarterly financial report
D. Annual report
Present value of a future sum:
a. Value today of the future cash flows of an investment
discounted at a specified interest rate
b. Formula is: PV = FV ÷ (1 + r)^n where FV is the value to be
received, r is the investor’s required rate of return (generally
the current market rate), and n is the number of years until the
FV is received
c. Commonly used to determine FMV of a bond
If I will be receiving $50,000 in 5 years and I can get a 10% rate of return, what should thepresent value of that sum be today?
Solution:
PV = FV ÷ (1 + r)^n
$50,000 ÷ (1 + .10)^5 = $50,000 ÷ (1.61051) =
$31,046.07
Rule of 72
Example: If you can earn 4%, divide 72 by 4 = 18
years time to double your money
Example: If you have 3 years, divide 72 by 3 = 24%
earnings needed to double your money
Rule of 72
Example: If you can earn 4%, divide 72 by 4 = 18
years time to double your money
Example: If you have 3 years, divide 72 by 3 = 24%
earnings needed to double your money
Net present value (NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
1. The discount rate that results in a net present value of _ for a series of future cash flows
Net present value (NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
1. The discount rate that results in a net present value of zero for a series of future cash flows
A. Mean
1. Arithmetic mean—simple average
2. Geometric mean—always _ (unless all returns equal)
B. Median
C. Mode - appears the _
D. Range/mid-range
A. Mean
1. Arithmetic mean—simple average
2. Geometric mean—always lower (unless all returns equal)
B. Median
C. Mode - appears the most often
D. Range/mid-range
Beta (β)
1. Measure of stock’s co-movement relative to _
2. Measures systematic risk: risk associated with the market in general, not the total risk that pertains to a specific security
β = 1 … Average risk investment
β > 1 … Above average risk investment
β < 1 … Below average risk investment
Beta (β)
1. Measure of stock’s co-movement relative to benchmark
2. Measures systematic risk: risk associated with the market in general, not the total risk that pertains to a specific security
β = 1 … Average risk investment
β > 1 … Above average risk investment
β < 1 … Below average risk investment
Alpha (α)
α = r(portfolio) - [r(risk-free)+(r(market) - r(risk-free)) * β]
α = [r(portfolio) - r(risk-free)] - [(r(market) - r(risk-free)) * β]
Alpha example:
The Risk-free rate (RF) is 3%. Stock A has a beta of 1.0; Stock B has a beta of 1.4. Stock A has a return of 13%; Stock B has a return of 19%. What is Stock B’s alpha?
Solution:
α = 0.19 - [0.03 + (0.13-0.03)1.4] = .02
Standard deviation (σ)
Volatility within
Standard deviation (σ)
Volatility within
Correlation
Correlation
Valuation Ratios
A. Calculations used in balance sheet analysis:
Liquidate everything, give preferred shareholders back their par value and the rest is book value.
Book value = _ assets - liabilities - par value of _
Book value = Net worth - _ assets - par value of _
Book value per share = Book value/shares of common stock outstanding
Book value: Liquidating (not intrinsic) value
40MM Net Worth
-20MM Preferred stock
- 5MM Intangibles (includes goodwill)
=15MM Book Value
÷ 1MM Number of common shares outstanding
=$15.00 Book value per common share
Valuation Ratios
A. Calculations used in balance sheet analysis:
Book value = tangible assets - liabilities - par value of preferred
Book value = Net worth - intangible assets - par value of preferred
Book value per share = Book value/shares of common stock outstanding
Book value: Liquidating (not intrinsic) value
40MM Net Worth
-20MM Preferred stock
- 5MM Intangibles (includes goodwill)
=15MM Book Value
÷ 1MM Number of common shares outstanding
=$15.00 Book value per common share
EPS relates to _ shares and assumes _ dividends were already paid
EPS = earnings available to _ ÷ number of shares
current yield(stock yield) = _ per common share ÷ _ per common share
dividend payout ratio = _ per common share ÷ _
PE ratio = current market price of common share ÷ _
price-to-book ratio = _ common stock ÷ _ per share
EPS relates to common shares and assumes preferred dividends were already paid
EPS = earnings available to common ÷ number of shares
current yield = annual dividends per common share ÷ market value per common share
dividend payout ratio = annual dividends per common share ÷ EPS
PE ratio = current market price of common share ÷ earnings per share (EPS)
price-to-book ratio = Market price of common stock ÷ Book value per share
Valuation Ratios
B. Liquidity (balance sheet
1. Working capital = _ – _
$40,000,000 – $10,000,000 = $30,000,000
2. Current ratio (2:1 or better) = _ ÷ _
$40,000,000 ÷ $10,000,000 = 4:1
3. Quick ratio (acid-test) (1:1 or better) = (_ – _) ÷ _
($40,000,000 – $20,000,000) ÷ $10,000,000 = 2:1
Valuation Ratios
B. Liquidity (balance sheet
1. Working capital = Current assets – current liabilities
$40,000,000 – $10,000,000 = $30,000,000
2. Current ratio (2:1 or better) = Current assets ÷ current liabilities
$40,000,000 ÷ $10,000,000 = 4:1
3. Quick ratio (acid-test) (1:1 or better) = (Current assets – inventory) ÷ current liabilities
($40,000,000 – $20,000,000) ÷ $10,000,000 = 2:1
Valuation Ratios
C. Capitalization
1. Total capitalization = _ + net worth (_capital)
$50,000,000 + $40,000,000 = $90,000,000
2. Debt ratio = _ debt ÷ _
$50,000,000 ÷ $90,000,000 = 55.56%
Valuation Ratios
C. Capitalization
1. Total capitalization = Long-term debt + net worth (equity capital)
$50,000,000 + $40,000,000 = $90,000,000
2. Debt ratio = Long-term debt ÷ total capitalization
$50,000,000 ÷ $90,000,000 = 55.56%