1
Q
Voter Turnout Since 2000
A
about 60-65%
- voter turnout is higher in presidential elections
what happened:
- there’s a higher turnout in presidential elections because there’s more INFORMATION
- From 2000 on, campaigns have gotten better at getting out to vote (Ground game) – try to personalize messages/knock on doors to get people to vote
- Political parties now do more mobilization activities guided by analytic data (micro-target them)
2
Q
Majority vs. Plurality Systems
A
Majority:
- a candidate needs a majority (more than 50% of the vote) to win
- if no candidate has a majority, they have a runoff
- runoff has only the top two candidates run
Plurality:
- most House and Senate contests do this
- the candidate who gets the most votes wins
3
Q
Party Identification (PID)
A
which party someone affiliates with (loyalty to that party)
- Party ID doesn’t always stay the same throughout life
- responses to issues can be shaped by your party ID
4
Q
Split Ticket Voting
A
when a voter votes for candidates from different parties throughout the ballot
ex: President (D) and senator (R)
5
Q
Factors Affecting Voter Turnout
A
- minorities have lower rates of voting (Black and Latinos)
- education – higher education = higher voter turnout
- age – older people vote more because they care more about the community/local issues and are more experienced and aren’t as busy
- income – people with lower income don’t have time to read about politics
social factors: church goers, homeowners vote more
- how attracted you are to a party – if you’re strongly attached you vote more because there’s a higher stake for you
- easier to register to vote
6
Q
Localization Techniques
A
they use info about you to learn about your consumer habits
- they contact you and read different script to you based on topics that you care about and they try to get you to vote for their candidate
7
Q
Bad Factors For Voting
A
- younger electorate
- bowling alone – Americans are more lonely and less engaged in society, causing them to vote less
- efficacy – think there’s no consequence on the world (vote doesn’t matter)
- weakened attachment to parties
8
Q
Why Negative Ads Work
A
you remember negative ads more because remembering the negatives is a survival tactic (evolution)
- negative ads have more information that positive ads
9
Q
Prospective Voting
A
looking at campaign promises and seeing what will happen in the future
- voters make their decisions based on what they think will happen in the future and what the candidate would do
10
Q
Retrospective Voting
A
you vote depending on how the last 4 years have been
- does the incumbent deserve reelection?
- how well has the incumbent done in the past – policies? promises?
11
Q
Issue Voting
A
vote based on the information –
- people who are well-informed about their own policy preferences and knowledgeable about the candidates use this information to decide how to vote
12
Q
Elections and Mandates
A
- Mandate – incoming presidency that has a large majority – using that as a way of saying because you have a large amount of support you can change the policies that you ran on
- Presidents say they have a mandate when they win, but large electoral victories get larger mandates – problem: just because the candidate wins, doesn’t mean the voters want
- Presidents say that have mandates but it’s unclear what the voters want
13
Q
Why People Vote
A
elections hold politicians accountable
- politicians respond to elections – do things based on them to win reelection or win office
- we participate because it’s easy to find info on the election (media, news, ads…)
- info reduces the cost of voting
**it’s logical to not vote because your vote doesn’t really matter (matters more in local elections where voter turnout is lower — BUT people still vote)
14
Q
Voting and Rationality
A
Voting should be rational
- You should vote for something about that serves your interest and something you know about — need to know which politician’s platform serves you
Some people don’t know what they actually want – are they just voting randomly
15
Q
Negative Ads
A
ads used to attack the opponent candidate
- usually run by outside organizations
16
Q
Contrast Ads
A
do both (negative and positive ads)
*need contrast ads because politics is about conflict
17
Q
Positive Ads
A
ads that only talk about the candidate
18
Q
Analytics
A
data drives what info you get
- informs what types of ads are being placed and where
19
Q
Logic of Not Voting
A
- local election turnout is lower (probability of your vote mattering is higher)
- probability of your vote having an effect is 0%
- more people vote at the top of the ballot (skip the rest of the ballot)
- waiting in line to votes takes awhile
- learning about politics take awhile (especially if you don’t have time to)
**voting is a collective action problem
- people don’t want to vote because they don’t want to bear the cost when they think they have no affect on the outcome
*voting turnout is highest in presidential elections because people have the most INFORMATION even thought it doesn’t matter – easier to make decisions because you have a cue on the ballot (party ID)
*in local elections, they have less info which is why voter turnout is lower even though their vote matters more
- harder to make decisions because you don’t have the cue on the ballot (party ID)
20
Q
Ground Game (GOTV)
A
effort to make sure supporters get out and vote
- volunteers may use canvassing, door-to-door knocking, phone banks, email, social media, etc.
21
Q
Different Types of Primaries: Primary Election
A
primary election:
- citizens vote for a candidate they want on the ballot for the general election
ex: picking between Trump and Nikki Haley to run as the Republican nominee
22
Q
Different Types of Primaries: Closed Primary
A
Closed Primary: only registered party members can vote in their party’s primary
ex: If you are registered as a Democrat, you can only vote among the Democrat candidates for the primary election
23
Q
Different Types of Primaries: Non-Partisan Primary
A
candidates from both parties are on the primary ballot
- the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary compete in the general election, even if they are from the same party
ex: Hillary Clinton running against Kamala
candidates are listed on the ballot without party ID
24
Q
Different Types of Primaries: Open Primary
A
any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary, regardless of voter affiliation
- they can’t vote for candidates in both parties (can’t vote for dem candidate and candidate in repub.)
25
Different Types of Primaries: Semi-Closed Primary
registered voters must in their party's primary, but registered independents can vote in either party's primary
26
Duverger's Law
You have a bipartisan system
Single member district = if you win the majority, you win the state
In Plurality system = if you win 85% of the vote you win 5 seats, 45% you win 3 seats
If you win in a single-member district, 2 parties emerge
PR system = multiple parties
- Multiple parties have different shares of the seat
- This helps minority parties stay represented
27
Australian Ballot
voters use a uniform ballot to mark their choices in privacy
- old system (split ballot): used to have one ballot with one party and vote in public
- Australian ballots destroyed party machines because they couldn't get people to vote a certain way
- reduced party unity voting
- harder to purchase votes (don't know how people will vote for sure since they do it in private now)
28
Party Unity Voting
the degree of members of Congress in the same party vote together on party votes
29
Party Votes
the majority of one party opposes the position of the majority of the other party
- members of the party vote in alignment with thir party's official position on a bill or piece of legislation
30
How Parties get Weaker
- strength of partisanship decreases
- parties get different ideologically
- When the parties become more extreme, it makes it hard for leaders to actually govern
asymmetrical polarization: republicans got more conservative which increased polarization
- fewer congressional districts
- more extreme dems. and repubs. because of gerrymandering
- Pendelton Civil Service Acts hurts parties
- Secret Ballot (Australian Ballot)
The New Deal (got rid of need for party machines)
- candidates engage in their own campaigns
- New tech
*gave more power to activists
*Polarization can make it harder for parties to run and organizarions to win elections
- The Repubs. who were too extreme won primaries
31
Why Decline of Parties?
- New Deal
- Progressive Reforms
- Rise of the New Media
- Candidate-Centered Campaigns
31
How Parties Got Stronger
- as parties have sorted ideologically, people also sort based on their identities
**Politics is more identity based
the big sort -- people live in neighborhoods that are partisan and like them
Micro-targeting-- politics focuses on anger politics (using online data to tailor ad messages to people)
31
Issue Advocacy
campaign ads used to raise awareness of certain problems (economy, environment...)
31
Campaign Finance Reform
there's election laws on how campaign money can be spent
31
Parties in Electorate
the citizens who identify with the party
31
Parties in Organization
the political party's leaders and workers at the national, state, and local levels
32
Third Parties
political parties other than the 2 majority parties (Dems and Repubs)
problems:
- Americans didn't vote in 3rd Party because it's pointless
- most successful 3rd party (actually the Republican party)
- 3rd parties absent in congress
what they do well:
- draw attention to issues that major parties usually neglect
32
Parties in Government
made up of politicians who are in a specific party and were elected as candidates of that party
32
Divided Government
congress and president are controlled by different parties
ex: Congress = dem. and President = repub.
- more divided gov. than unified
- divided gov. makes it harder to pass legislation
- when congress is divided there's more oversight (ensures bureaucracy does what it should do)
- more investigations done to hurt the executive branch
**During divided government, the investigations are used as a political weapon to target the other party
32
Unified Government
Congress and the President are all in the same party
ex: House = Dem, Senate = Dem, President = Dem
- less investigation so they can get away with more
32
Party Machines
Organizations run by party bosses that are populated by gov. workers
- Their job is to grab people and get them out to vote for their party’s candidates
- They dominated politics (electioneering)
- This is why voter turnout was so high
- Party organizations controlled candidates – had high unity voting
32
Responsible Parties
- parties develop clear, distinct goals/ideas
- helps voters know which party to vote for because they're so different
ex: Republicans are pro-tariff and Democrats are anti-tariff
32
Wasted Vote Problem
third parties struggle and never win in the plurality system
- People don’t want to vote for them because they think they’re wasting their vote and should vote for one of the 2 parties
- don't get federal funding (unless 5% of vote)
third party's still have an effect:
- they tend to bring up issues that the other main issues are ignoring
- When they perform well enough (don’t win still) one of the two parties absorbs that issue
33
Pendleton's Civil Service Act
it created the federal civil service act
- people would get hired because of merit and because they had qualifications rather than connections
34
Proportional Representation
primaries divide each state's delegate seats among the candidates
- if a candidate receives 40% of the votes in a state's primary, the candidate will get around 40% of convention delegates from the state
- parties gain seats in proportion to votes cast for them
***helps parties and minorities have more representation
35
Plurality Elections
the candidate who receives the most votes than any other candidate is elected -- even if no one gets the majority
ex: John = 40%, Teddy = 25%, and Mark = 5% of the votes
- John would win because he has the most votes even though he doesn't have a majority
36
Progressive Political Reforms
Reforms implemented during the Progressive Era 1900s
- aimed to make government more democratic and efficient
- social reforms, economic, healthcare...
During the progressive era – trying to address the corruption in the Jacksonian Era
- All of these people have too much power in gov. – we need to reform politics so it’s closer to the people
Direct democracy came out of this
Results: referendums, direct senators – australian ballot came out of this
*These reforms sought to weaken the power of political parties
Got rid of party machines
ex:
- direct election of senators
- women's right to vote
- the FDA
- child labor laws
37
Issue Ownership
voters associate certain parties with certain issues -- each party has a specific reputation for it
- candidates will focus their campaigns on issues that are part of their party's brand name (Dems) and ignore issues that belong to the other party
ex: Dem candidate focuses on abortion and ignores economy
38
Negative Partisanship
People affiliate with a party not because they like that party but because they dislike the other party
ex: Voters identify with dems. even though they dislike Biden and dems in congress but they hate repub party even more
39
Truman's Arguments for Factions
- argues the effects of interest groups are harmless and interest groups are healthy
- the growth of interest groups isn't a problem
- when an interest group is threatened, another will rise up and protect them
- certain interests are more represented than others
ex: there's a zoning action in your neighborhood and the neighbors don't like this so they come together to stop them
- they balance the system
- compromise between opposing interest groups
****interest groups are generally balanced
****interest groups overlap into other groups
2 solutions – either suppress some interests to even the playing field (not democratic) so instead, we should just have more interest groups
40
Framing
when interest groups make a pitch, framing is how they tailor it/make their argument
Ex: post 9/11, there was a ton of money for terrorism and national security
- Businesses would pitch their need around that idea
41
Interest Group
separate entities from political parties
- organizations that seek to influence government policies
(used to be called factions)
they...
- lobby
- draft legislation
- get public to put pressure on politicians
- help elect candidate who support them
42
Pluralism
having a variety of interests and parties will strengnthen society as no group will have total control
- interests groups are very important
- most Americans participate in politics through interest groups
ex: being a member of the NRA or AAA
- Right now, there are people who are underrepresented because maybe they don’t have the resources or knowledge about what is going on
- Parker says that people who don’t vote don’t have the right to complain about the outcome because they didn’t participate even though they are able to
People with more money and more resources can be heard more
interest groups = policy demanders
43
Second Face of Power
parties are responsive to interest groups
- interest groups have more power than we think they do
- can drive what's happening in a party
- interest groups influence policy decisions and platforms, pushing politicians to adopt things
- they can exert their power by giving politicians money through PACs
- influence happens sometimes behind the scenes, we can't always see it
ex: can't always see bills that aren't introduce
**decisions aren't always transparent and open to public
44
Bias in Interest Group System
Pluralists say groups are free to organize and enter - the problem is it’s not true (easier for some groups to organize than others)
- Easier to organize around some interests than others and some people have more time
- Even if we assume that all groups can equally form, there are ways that interest groups can have influence that we can’t observe (Second Face of Power)
**collective action problem and Olsen – some interests are easier to form because of the types of interests their trying to secure (rich vs poor)
Part of the bias in the system is that everyone gets the benefit – it is easier to mobilize people for narrow benefits than collective benefits
- Some people are better able to organize because of time, energy, resources
Results: Wealthy people are able to get more because they have the resources and such
45
Logic of Collective Action
- group formation is not automoatic -- even when people want the same things, they still might not organize together
- people want to free ride (enjoy benefits of organizations without participating)
- motivating people to want to participate is most important
lecture:
- some interest groups are better able to form based on what type of benefits the groups wants
if the interest group is small:
- they can police it better -- less free riding and enjoy the benefits more because it's not shared as much
46
Selective Benefits/Incentives
benefits that motivate people to participate in the group effort because the benefits are only available to those who participate
47
Entrepreneurs
Olsen: if we believe that groups that form are more likely to protect their interests rather than collective benefits, we would never have NRA or AARP
- We overcome the collective action problem and groups do form to protect the collective benefits
- We do this by encouraging people to join an organization by giving them a selective benefit
ex: you want to protect social security so you create AARP and give members a benefit (members have to pay membership fee) in return, you can use the fact that you have all of these people signed up which then you can use to lobby Congress
- Entrepreneurs pay the cost to create the organization to protect the collective benefits because they get benefits:
- they can say they founded it, ran it, get a salary from it if it succeeds
48
Lobbying
we all have a right to petition our gov. (comes from the 1st amendment)
- a lot of money spent on lobbying
convince an elected official or bureaucrat to help enact a law or do something the interest groups want
business of lobbying:
- ban on elected officials on how they interact with lobbyists
49
Revolving Door
movement of someone from a gov. position to a job with an interest group or a lobbying firm -- or vice versa
ex: members of lobbying groups now took gov. positions
- people think it's corrupt to have gov. officials have ties with interest groups or that gov. officials will give special treatment to a lobbyist group which will then hire them in the future
- rules on the timing of how you can interact with
50
The Role of Interest Groups
- frame info
- alter political forces
- provide info to lawmakers about consequences of regulations
- litigate (file lawsuits)
- engage in grassroots lobbying (getting people in the community involved)
ex: snowmobiles will have restrictions on them
- interest group calls snowmobile-using neighborhood and they gather to stop this
- engage in electoral politics
51
Parties Vs. Interest Groups
Parties: they influence policies from the inside of the party
Interest Groups:
- they seek influence from the outside
- donate money or lobby to try and get gov. to make/change/do things they want
52
Rise of Interest Groups
- started in 1960s-1970s
- national gov. got bigger which caused more interest groups to organize to get a bigger share of the pie
- tax code created tax deductions for charities
- people want to make charities so they can write them off for taxes
- successful opponents leads to more interest groups
ex: when roe v. wade was overturned, it caused more pro-choice interest groups to form and raise money and file lawsuits
- also caused them to get copy cat interest groups
- national gov. organizations that provide expanded (defense of gov., public land, public parks)
53
Contributions: What do they Buy?
campaign contribution doesn't buy votes
- money buys access --> donors get more access and lobbyists do too
- money influences large organizations
54
Citizens United
- Supreme court case
- ***Said money is free speech
Because it takes money to proliferate speech - giving money is free speech
Problem = gave rise to SuperPACs and unregulated money spending
55
Free Riding
they enjoy the benefits from the group's success without participating
- they rely on others to contribute
ex: getting 10% extra credit on your test because other people in the class filled out the survey even though you didn't fill it out
(you're enjoying the 10% but didn't do anything)
56
Different Lobbying/Interest Groups
HELP
57
Grassroots Lobbying
when interest groups mobilize citizens to express their opinions and to petition a legislator to get something done
- asking the general public to contact their legislator
***relies on the participation of group members, like protesting or letter-writing campaign
ex: AAARP has a place on their website where people can watch tips and tools to engage with elected officials
58
1st Amendment and Lobbying
Lobbyers are able to lobby under the 1st amendment as they are able to petition the gov.
***First amendment = lobbying is protected under the freedom of speech
59
PACs
Political action committee
- PACs have to federally disclose how much money they spend – can’t be unlimited
- Able to donate directly to the candidate’s campaign
- They donate directly and have to federally disclose anything above $200
60
SuperPACs
- Able to donate unlimited amounts of money – a problem
- Not able to donate directly to a candidate’s campaign but can donate to events that get to the candidate
61
527s
- "Dark money" groups
- No limits and don’t have to be affiliated with any party entities
Ex: a business that isn’t a business but registered as one – business at the front but at their core money launder and sends money to SuperPACs
- Doesn’t have to be affiliated with a party entity
62
Centralized vs. Confederation Groups
Centralized Groups: interest group model
- the organization's leadership is concentrated in its headquarters
- the leaders decide their lobbying tactics and goals
**the interest group's decisions are made at the headquarters (usually in DC) and by the group leaders
Confederation Groups: there’s multiple sources of influence within the interest group
- Multiple sources of decision making
– multiple sources come together
63
Linkage Function
Their job is to get public opinion and bridge it to the government
- they help organize ideas
The people who are the middle step between an individual and the government legislator
- Interest groups are the middle step between the public and the gov.
64
Watergate Scandal
summary:
DNC was held at the Watergate Hotel and two burglers put recording devices in their offices
- reporters picked up the story because they were arrested with names of important people (Howard Hunt's address)
Nixon:
- didn't order the break in but he ordered people to obstruct the investigation
- Nixon had recording system in his office which caught him -- he approves Hardman's plan for obstruction
Results:
- Watergate connected Nixon to his illegal activity -- "plumber system" who went after his enemies
- Nixon was warned that watergate would link him to his illegal actions
- nixon interefered with LBJ peace negotiation for Vietnam (kept our troops there for longer)
- Nixon raised campaign $ from corporations which was illegal
65
Watergate Hearings
- Nixon's advisors testified
- Nixon denied knowing what his men were doing
Nixon vs. US:
- nixon cited executive privilege and said he shouldn't have to give up the tapes
- nixon appointed another special prosecutor
- the House starts to impeach Nixon
- special prosecutor got Nixon to release the tapes
*rulining --> president doesn't have absolute privilege
july: charged for
- obstruction of justice
- abuse of presidential power
- contempt of power
**republicans still support Nixon at this point
66
Watergate Results
August --
- Nixon has to release the tapes (one was doctored)
*Republicans no longer support him
-- they are willing to vote to convict him
- Nixon resigned because he didn't have enough support (needed Republican support but they wouldn't support him because they had clear evidence that he stained democracy)
67
January 6th
insurrection of the Capitol -- Trump tried to establish himself as the sole savior
- said electoral vote was wrong
- said election was stolen, ballots were stolen and that people voted illegally (mail-in-ballots largely came from dems)
- he created suspicion about the legitimacy of the election and tried to get legislators to not certify the vote
- Trump wanted the military to seize voting machines
- Trump told Pence not to certify the election
68
Fake Electorate Scheme
Trump got people to pretend to be elected officials and say that they counted more votes for Trump and less for Biden
- wanted people to illegally certify votes
election subversion: Trump made calls to try and have them put more votes for Trump
Trump’s staff tried to enlist people to go and pretend to be electors and send in votes for trump – wanted them to certify that Trump had more votes
- When there’s a conflicting elector votes, the VP decides what to do
- Trump wanted Pence to certify the Trump votes but Pence wouldn’t
69
Jan 6th Rally
Trump's supporters rallied together and had weapons, stormed the Capitol and Trump didn't do anything to stop them
Supreme Court:
- they granted him presidential immunity
- trump wants to pardon his supporters who went to jail
- Trump still refuses to admit that he lost the election in 2020
70
Obstruction of Justice
Something a president can actually be impeached for
- There’s rules you have to follow and when you break a law, you would generally be subjected to a consequence
- When you try to obstruct justice, you don’t want the law to apply to you (Trump obstructed to justice by saying they didn’t break the law)
- Watergate – Nixon obstructed justice because he wasn’t penalized even though he should’ve
- Trump obstructed justice by not having consequences for jan. 6th
71
How Electoral Votes are Counted and Certified
The VP leads Congress and opens the certificates from each state
- tellers from the House and Senate read and count the votes
once the votes are counted, the VP announces the results, and then certifies the winner of the presidential election
72
The ways Trump Undermined the Confidence in Elections
he accused the election of being stolen and said that votes were stolen
- he said mail-in-ballots were fraudulent, that they miscounted ballots, that the inner parts of ballot machines were taken out, that people were sabotaging the election
- he filed lawsuits and everyone said that there was no evidence to support that votes were stolen or that the election was fraudulent
- he called elected officials and asked them to overturn the results in states that he had lost
- people now thought the election was less legit
73
Akin and Bartels -- TED
- public opinion — people are uninformed, lack attention, and political knowledge but these people still vote
- ordinary Americans who don’t know much still vote
- they did a project and they think people know what they want — we think as a democracy people know what they want despite public literature
- our democracy is a direct reflection of what we want
group theory of voting:
- you belong to a specific group or social identity, so you take on the preferences of that group
- people have their certain needs/demands and so they take it on
*they think voters vote in terms of their preferences but they actually vote in terms of how their social identity (what we are assigned in a group) acts and behave
**social groups matter and individual preferences don’t
74
Bawn et. al -- TED
- they said we have old literature that parties are only concerned about their legislators being reelected
- they want to form coalitions (groups of interest groups) in Congress to pass bills to get reelected
**this article says that interest groups drive the conversation not the constituents
- interest group theory of parties --- parties aren’t representatives of the people they serve
- coalition of interest groups shapes party nominations and is most successful in doing so
electoral blindspot:
- politicians don't have to be responsive to voters because voters don't pay attention
- instead, they have to respond to coalitions (interest groups)
- interest groups are policy demanders
- the party is trying to maximize our policies now that we know our people aren’t paying attention
- appeal to the interest groups
75
Ahler and Sood -- TED
people in the US tend to overestimate party composition
- people think that Democrats are liberal, non-white, secular, higher-educated
- people think republicans are wealthy, white, Christian, religious, males
- political actors and media feed this image
- how info is presented/targeted can make it feel like you all have the same thoughts
- media can target people online and feed them opinions that which keeps them uniformed to other issues
76
Olson -- TED
- collective action is a problem that parties/interest groups have to overcome
- they have to organize people to push for similar agendas/policies
some interests are easier to form because of the type of interests and who wants them
ex: rich people do better at this because they have more time, energy, resources,
*it's easier to organize people around narrow issues than larger ones
- in large groups, people are more likely to free ride or think the benefit it too small
- people want the benefit to directly benefit them which might not happen in a larger group as quickly
77
3 Parts of Parties
Organizations – parties
Run campaigns for candidates to be in government
Government –
Electorate – the electorate elects political actors for the government
Parties to the electorate – expresses issue stances clearly because the electorate generally doesn’t know what they’re voting for
Electorate – elects the gov. Candidates
*parties must express their issue stances clearly
*parties run their campaigns
78
Campaign Contributuon Buys...
ACCESS
79
What can Interest Groups Buy
Interest groups are talked about in terms of campaign
- It’s about access – you have a foot in the door, get dinner with them, talk to them, get their phone number
- Maybe you can lobby for your interests
80
Policy Demanders (Short Essay Question)
Bawn et. Al reading (TED)
- Interest groups are policy demanders – it might be something the citizens want
- Interest groups as groups that care about specific policies, parties are responsive to interest groups
- They are responsive because voters are generally uninformed – parties will try to maximize their platforms
*parties are responsive to interest groups
interests groups drive parties
- they donate money
81
Akin and Bartels TED ELECTIONS AND VOTING QUESTION
akin and bartels:
Akin and Bartles say democracy isn’t really close to the people because voters don’t know what’s going on
- Politicians are giving messages that are feeding into each other
- Echo chamber
- people make sense of politics through their identity
- identity theory: people prioritize who they are which drives who they vote for
ex: if you're a woman and don't know who to vote for, you will prob pick the dems because they align more with your identity
82
Lobbying Types:
Economics
single-issue
citizen
Psych 202
flashcards
Decks in class (8)
# Cards
