stage one of DTM?
pre industrial
high CBR, high CDR, low NIR
no countries in this stage (tribes, maybe, countries, no)
hunters and gatherers type shi
stage two of DTM?
industrial revolution and medical revolution cause this
after 1950 many vaccines and other medicines spread across the world. however, people still believed they needed to have 8-10 children. so, high CBR, declining CDR, high NIR. population boom!
cultural lag is when a culture takes time to catch up with technological innovations. this is what happens.
stage three of DTM?
urbanisation
no more cultural lag, people expect more children to live so CBR declines, and CDR continues to decline. there is still increase, but a more moderate increase, NRI declines. NRI is moderate instead of high.
economic changes make it harder to support a large family; in farms many people required to help in farm, but in city it is expensive to have many kids and the kids won’t even be a lot of help to the family; less advantageous aspects to life.
improved medicine lowers IMR.
stage four of DTM?
low/no growth
as urbanization continues, women get more opportunities in society; women are empowered. they are seen less as “baby makers” and are allowed to participate in society and get jobs and have a career - so they will have less children (low CBR)
so now CBR and CDR are like equal like in stage 1, except the overall population is high. in terms of NIR and growth, however, stage four is the same as the first.
stage five of DTM?
CBR remains low, CDR starts to increase (due to aging population, where a larger proportion of ppl are reaching the end of their natural lives)
birth rate less than death rate - causes aging population like japan and russia (negative NIR).
deaths may go up due to poverty, overpopulation, new diseases etc.
govt plays more active role in population control by promoting family planning or putting laws in place - example: china one child, and now two child policy.
pro-natalist policies
policies made by governments to increase the birth rate
anti-natalist policies
policies made by governments to decrease the birth rate
ex. of anti natalist policies
china
- one child policy
- “granny police” hired to spy on young couples to ensure law was followed
5.2 births/woman → 1.57 births/woman
ex. of anti natalist policies
iran
- free contraceptives
- govt conducted extensive media campaigns to raise awareness about the benefits of smaller families.
- discouraged having children after age 35
- encouraged 3-4 yrs gap b/w having children
- withdrew benefits like food coupons, paid maternity leave, and social welfare subsidies for govt and para-govt employees after the birth of a third child. This policy aimed to discourage families from having more than two children.
ex. of anti natalist policies
india
- began forced sterlization program for men with ≥3 children [1970s]
- in 2004, offered guns for sterilization [incentive]
- today most indian states use advertising and persuation to lower birth rates
22.5 mil men were sterilized
gang violence was a problem during that time in UP
persuation=propaganda
ex. of pro natalist policies
france
- $800 for mother to stay off work for one year after birth of third child
- banned sale of contraceptives (1920-1967)
- longer maternity/paternity leaves
france has one of europe’s highest fertility rates at 1.87 births/woman
ex. of pro natalist policies
denmark
paid vacationns for young couples, to encourage procreation
ex. of pro natalist policies
us and many others (most developed countries)
tax breaks for having children
ageing population - what?
avg age increases over time
avg age is proportionally high
higher % of older people and a lower % of younger people
ex. Devon, UK
ageing population - why?
- due to better standards of living and better healthcare, people are living longer
- more people deciding not to have children
impacts of an ageing population
- more money and taxes are speant on healthcare as the elderly need more treatment
- gdp decreases as dependency ratio goes up
- pressure on housing because more demand for retirement homes and reduced demand for regular housing decreasing in those areas
- govt has to spend more money on catered transport
insuffucient workers to support pension payments
- increased burden on remaining workforce
manage ageing population
- encourage migration so the workforce increases
- encourage more births (pro natalist policies)
- increase retirement age so that more people are working
- force greater labour participation (force more people to work)
ex. canada eased its migration policies to allow qualified workers to immigrate
dependenacy ratio will drop
ex. japan raised retirement age from 60-61 and will further be increased by one year every two years till it reaches 65 in 2031.
UK planning 66-67-68 (2044)
youthful population - what?
avg age decreases over time
avg age is very low
lower % of older people and a higher % of younger people
ex. Uganda (central africa)
tion
why is uganda becoming “younger”?
birth rate of uganda is very high as parents are having more children
- to use as economic producers
- IMR is very high, so parents have more children just in case
- lack of contraceptives in the country
parents can have children to work in their farms to produce more resources and earn more
impacts of youthful population
- a lot of money has to be spent on healthcare as there are more births, vaccinations and chidlren are being ill
- GDP will increase as there is a larger workforce in the long term. no sctrict laws on child labour increase workforce
- as people have more children, they will have less disposable income to spend on services; services will not do well because most of the income is spent on children.
- as there are more kids, govt has to spend more money on education
manage a youthful population
- encourage the pop. to have less kids (anti natalist policies)
- education ppl on family planning and contraceptives
- introduce regulations to prevent early marriage (in uganda most women marry @ around 15 years old)
less no. of kids that a woman will output within her years
