Predicting the future

Question 1

why prediction?

Answer 1

• increasingly important to be able to make predictions about likely changes in the environment (climate change, land use change etc.)
• prediction is the acid test of our ecological understanding

Question 2

how is a forecast made?

Answer 2

• study previous trends
• identify the key variables (birth rate, death rate and migration)
• consider likely changes in these variables over time

Question 3

problems with prediction

Answer 3

• society may need to make predictions over longer time scales
• the world is a complicated place and driving forces may interact, factors do not act in isolation
• feedback loops may result in more rapid change than expected

Question 4

drivers of change

Answer 4

• climate change
• population
• life style
• technology
• global politics
• economics and world trade

Question 5

climate change impacts

Answer 5

• sea level rise necessitating a clear response to coastal zone management
• effects on water demand, water availability and flood risk
• effects on future land use cropping patterns and the distribution of farm types and introduction of new crops
• effects on the resilience of biodiversity and on sensitive habitats
• effects on life style choices such decisions about countryside visits, holiday destinations etc.

Question 6

use of scenarios

Answer 6

• different scenarios lead to different predictions
• the complexity of interacting factors has led to the development of scenarios
• there are not predictions, they are plausible combinations of future conditions
• usually defined with reference to the indirect drivers of change (demography, politics, economies, technology, culture/belief system)