ENCN375 > Risk > Flashcards

Risk Flashcards

(57 cards)

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1
Q

What are the building blocks of a risk picture (bow-tie diagram)?

A

Risk sources, preventative controls, event, responsive controls, consequences.

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2
Q

Describe the Simplified/Crude Risk Analysis method

A

Type of analysis: Qualitative.
Description: Informal procedure that establishes risk picture using brainstorming sessions and group discussions.

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3
Q

Describe the Standard Risk Analysis method.

A

Type of analysis: Qualitative or Quantitative.
Description: Formalised procedure using methods such as coarse/preliminary risk analysis etc.

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4
Q

Describe the Model-based Risk Analysis method.

A

Type of analysis: Quantitative with qualitative evaluation.
Description: Model-based analysis using techniques such as event trees, fault trees, Monte Carlo etc.

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5
Q

Why Risk Analysis?

A
  1. Establish an understanding of consequences and uncertainties (a risk picture).
  2. Systematise and describe the knowledge and lack of knowledge.
  3. Identify factors, conditions, activities, systems, components … that are important/critical with respect to risk.
  4. Compare different alternatives and solutions. Demonstrate the effect of various risk reduction strategies.
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6
Q

What is the Planning step of the Risk Process?

A
  • Establish the context
  • What are the objectives?
  • What are you measuring?
  • What do you plan to do with the information?
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7
Q

What is the Assessment step of the Risk Process?

A
  • Identification of intiating event
  • Cause analysis
  • Consequence analysis
  • Uncertainties
  • Evaluate whether the risk is acceptable
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8
Q

What is the Treatment step of the Risk Process?

A

Take steps to reduce the risk
- Compare alternatives, identification and assessment of measures
- Review and judge

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9
Q

Decision making with uncertainty involves …

A
  1. The situation
  2. Goal-setting, preferences, and performance measures
  3. Decision criteria
  4. Review and judgement by the decision-maker
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10
Q

Define Risk.

A

The consequences of an activity and associated uncertainties (according to the Socity of Risk Analysis Glossary 2015).

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11
Q

What is the time component of risk?

A

The duration for which the activity/system is examined.

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12
Q

What is a direct risk?

A

When there is a direct link between a hazard and an element at risk that is exposed and vulnerable.

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13
Q

What is an indirect risk?

A

When a risk is removed from a hazard - for example, impacts on mental health, disruptions to supply chains, migration, social wellbeing, and cohesion.

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14
Q

What are Cascading Impact Diagrams?

A

A type of systems map.
Shows the complex inter-relationships between the effects of climate change hazards and stressors on the things we value.

For example, the effect of coastal hazard on natural environment, built environment, social, Te Ao Maori, Economic, Governance, …

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15
Q

When describing risk, you must consider …

A

Consequence:
- What can happen?
- What are the consequences?
Uncertainty:
- What is the likelihood that will happen, and those are the consequences?
- What is the knowledge supporting these judgements?
- How strong is this knowledge?
Over what timeframe do you consider the activity / evaluate the consequence.

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16
Q

We must be careful when thinking risk is inherently tied to probability because …

A
  1. Assumptions can conceal important aspects of risk and uncertainties.
  2. Presumes existence of probability models.
  3. The probabilities can be the same, but the knowledge they are built on is strong or weak.
  4. Surprises occur.
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17
Q

What are 3 ways we can describe the nature of uncertainty?

A

Ambiguity
- values behind people’s decisions/judgments –> uncertainty
Epistimic
- from lack of knowledge and understanding of the system
Aleatory
- inherent randomness

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18
Q

When judging the strength of knowledge, consider …

A
  • Are the assumptions reasonable and realistic
  • How much data/information exists and is it reliable and relevant
  • How much disagreement is there amongst the experts
  • How well is the related phenomena understood and do accurate models exist
  • How well has the knowledge basis been examined
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19
Q

Explain why risk is subjective (based on your knowledge).

A

The probability is a measure of uncertainty about the events/outcomes, seen though the eyes of the assessor, based on some background information and knowledge.
It’s our measure of belief that some outcome will occur.

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20
Q

What are surprises / black swans?

A

Black swans: surprising events given the current knowledge.
- Unknown unknowns (total surprise)
- Unknown knowns (known to some, but unknown to the risk assessor)
- Known knowns (ignored as believe to be very low chance of occurring)

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21
Q

To avoid surprises, we can …

A
  • Provide an overview of the assumptions made
  • Assess the risk from deviations to those assumptions (sensitivity)
  • Try to reduce the assumptions that have the largest impact on the risk
  • Engage a range of individuals and perspectives in the process.
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22
Q

What are some examples of black swans according to Global Risk 2021?

A
  • Accidental war
  • Anarchic uprising
  • Brain-machine interface exploited
  • Collapse of an established democracy
  • Permafrost melt releases ancient microorganisms
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23
Q

A risk description must include …

Study These Flashcards
A

C: The consequences
Q: The measure of uncertainty
K: The details of the background knowledge

24
Q

What are Physical Risks?

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A

Threats and opportunities related to changing weather patterns. Risk from physical changes as a result of climate change, worsening hazard.

For example, in NZ’s agricultural sector:
- Inability for existing practices to maintain productivity and output
- Increased volatility in production and reduced ability to get product to market
- Inability for agriculture industry operators to access financial products
- Increase in pests and diseases
- Increased water stress and lack of water security

25
What are Transition Risks?
Challenges and opportunities related to regulation and market changes. Risks linked to transition to a low carbon economy. For example, in NZ's agricultural sector: - Inability for the sector to develop a whole system approach to build resilience for effective adaptation. - Inability for the sector to keep up with the rate of global technological change. - Inability for agriculture industry operators to access financial products. - Policy becomes misaligned with the needs of the sector and how it operates. - Inability to access and maintain public acceptance to operate in key markets. - Failure to understand and meet changing consumer preferences in the market.
26
What are some examples of physical risk?
- Increasing frequency of drought - Water availability - Increase in temperatures/rising sea level - Extreme weather events (cyclones, hail, flooding) - Indirect cascading impacts
27
What are some examples of transition risk?
- Changes in purchasing behaviour - Customer expectations and requirements - Govt. regulation policy (including market access) - Technology changes - New financing criteria and products
28
What is the Orderly climate scenario?
Low transition risk. Low physical risk. We start reducing emisisons now in a measured way to meet climate goals.
29
What is the Disorderly climate scenario?
High transition risk. Low physical risk. Sudden and unanticipated response is disruptive but sufficient enough to meet climate goals.
30
What is the Too Little Too Late climate scenario?
High transition risk. High physical risk. We don't do enough to meet climate goals, the presence of physical risks spurs a disorderly transition.
31
What is the Hot House World climate scenario?
Low transition risk. High physical risk. We continue to increase emissions, doing very little, if anything, to avert the physical risks.
32
What is an example of a risk workshop?
Identify risks (threats and opportunities) for the business - description - threat or opportunity? Evaluate the risks (Risk Assessment) - consequence from 0 to 5 - likelihood from 0 to 5 - confidence from 1 to 3 Identify and evaluate controls (Risk Controls) - ways to mitigate threats or leverage opportunities - how would this change the consequence and likelihood
33
In the hot-house scenario, what are the social impacts?
- Huge demand for food as population grows and agriculture land is affected by climate change. - No increased demand for sustainable food. - Challenge is attracting employees to the agriculture sector due to physical impacts of climate change.
34
In the hot-house scenario, what are the environmental impacts?
- Steadily increasing severe acute and chronic weather events. Global warming 2.4 degrees Celsius and increasing. - Either too much or too little water, leading to variable production and quality. Community tension over lack of water control/who should have priority. - Soil is eroded and extreme weather causes significant damage. Uncurbed urban expansion has used a large amount of productive land. - Competition for land area from urban expansion and alternative crops (e.g., soybean and kumara)
35
In the hot-house scenario, what are the impacts on technology?
- Lack of sustainable technology advancements. - Delayed realisation of the potential of GMO.
36
In the hot-house scenario, what are the impacts on policy?
- Lack of policy for agriculture leading to lack of support systems. - There are challenges accessing capital due to the extent of physical impacts of climate change.
37
In the hot-house scenario, what are the impacts on markets?
- Some premium sustainable products maintain NZ's premium image but others lose it as environmental issues are deprioritised. - There is unpredictability around the ability to export goods.
38
What are some hot-house physical changes that would occur from 2030-2050?
- Increase in average air temperature between 0.7-0.9 degrees celsius. - 15-20 more days/year with temperatures above >25 degrees celsius. - 5-8 more dry days/year. Time spent in drought increases 5-20%. - Increases in rainfall and cyclone intensity. - Daily temperature is expected to increase faster than overnight temperature. - Increased fire risk. - Extreme wind speed increases 10%. Frequency of extreme wind increases in winter, decreases in summer. - Decrease of 2-3 frost days. - SLR 30-40 cm.
39
What must you consider in the Establish The Context in the risk process?
- What you're doing, why you're doing, who's involved - Scope of study, boundaries, whose risks, who manages the risks - What does the organisation, community care about - Consequences (environmental, economic, political, safety ...)
40
What is a forward approach analysis method?
- Identify initiating events --> hazard --> consequences of events. - More mechanised
41
What is a backward approach analysis method?
Identify consequences to avoid first --> identify threats.
42
What do you do in the Identification step of the Risk Assessment (in the risk process)?
- Identify initiating events, unusual events - Avoid surprises, deviation to assumptions (sensitivity), overview assumptions made, reduce assumptions with largest impact on risk - Techniques: FMEA, HAZOP, SWIFT ...
43
What do you do in the Analysis step in the Risk Assessment (in the risk process)?
Cause analysis - factors that cause the intitiating events to occur - brainstorming sessions, fault trees, bayesian networks Consequence analysis - possible consequences? - event tree analysis, physical modelling
44
How can risk be different if it has the same mean and variance?
Because it depends on: - consequences - values (what matters most) - decision being made
45
Describe the risks due to SLR.
- The risk of isolation is greater than the risk of flooding itself - Exacerbates inequality (risk to Maori from isolation is 5 times more than from direct flooding)
46
What is the frequentist approach?
It assumes that there is a 'true' probability based on the relative function of times that some event occurs if the situation were to occur an infinite number of times
47
What is a Bayesian Network?
Series of nodes and connections indicating causal relationship.
48
What is the 3-step ISO31000 risk assessment process?
1. Risk identification 2. Risk analysis 3. Risk evaluation
49
How do we define probability?
The measure of the assessor's belief that an event will occur?
50
What is the recommended time-distribution to be spent on planning, assessment, treatment?
1/3 each
51
What are the two components of uncertainty (from a semi-quantitative risk perspective)?
Knowledge Measure
52
Define natural hazard.
Natural process or phenomenon that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and service, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
53
Define disaster.
A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
54
Define exposure.
People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses.
55
Define mitigation.
The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters.
56
Define adaptation.
The adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
57
What are the wellbeing domains in a cascading impact diagram?
- Natural environment - Built environment (can split into council infrastructure and private buildings) - Social - Te Ao Maori - Economic - Governance
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