1
Q
1
What is the definition of project risk management?
A
1
The processes concerned with conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, responses, and monitoring and control on a project
2
Q
1
Is risk management an optional activity?
A
1
No. It is not an optional activity, and it is applicable throughout the lifecycle of the project
3
Q
1
What are the 6 critical success factors of risk management?
A
1
- Recognize the value of risk management 2. Individual commitment/ responsibility 3. Open and honest communication 4. Organizational commitment 5. Risk Effort scaled to Project 6. Integration with Project Management
4
Q
1
What is the definition of project risk?
A
1
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective
5
Q
1
What type of reserve can you allocate for known-unknowns?
A
1
These are risks that can be identified and analyzed. You can allocate contingency reserve for known-unknowns.
6
Q
1
What type of reserve can you allocate for unknown-unknowns?
A
1
These are events that cannot be predicted with any accuracy and you cannot prevent from happening e.g. a natural disaster. You can allocate a management reserve. (“buy the insurance to reduce impact”)
7
Q
1
Name 8 factors influencing risk management
A
1
- Scale of the project 2. Level of public commitments 3. Stakeholders’ sensitivity 4. Organisation culture 5. Industry-specific factors 6. Cultural values 7. Cross-industry implications 8. Multi-organisational considerations –
8
Q
1
Does the probability of a risk event increase or decrease as the project progresses?
A
1
The probability of the event typically decreases as you approach project completion; but the impact if the risk event does occur increases.
9
Q
1
How can you document the role and responsibilities of project people and stakeholders with regard to risk management?
A
1
Use a RAM - Responsibility Accountability Matrix
10
Q
1
Which of the following is NOT an input to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process? a) Organizational Process Assets b) Project scope statement c) Risk Management Plan d) Enterprise environmental factors
A
1
D. Perform qualitative risk analysis uses A, B and C and also risk register as inputs to carry out the process.
11
Q
1
All the following will update the Risk Register from Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process except:
a) List of potential risk responses
b) Causes of risk
c) A priority list of risks
d) Trends in qualitative risk analysis
A
1
A.
The list of potential responses is identified in the Identify Risk process. The risk register contains this update already before starting qualitative risk analysis.
12
Q
1
How many processes are included in Project Communications Management?
A
1
Five.
- Identify Stakeholders;
- Plan Communications;
- Distribute Information;
- Manage Stakeholder Expectations;
- Report Performance
13
Q
1
What are the 5 processes included in Project Communications Management?
A
1
- Identify Stakeholders;
- Plan Communications;
- Distribute Information;
- Manage Stakeholder Expectations;
- Report Performance
14
Q
1
What are the inputs for identifying stakeholders?
A
1
There are 4.
- Project Charter
- Procurement documents
- Enterprise Environmental Factors
- Organizational Process Assets
15
Q
1
What are the tools and techniques for Identify Stakeholders?
A
1
There are 2.
- Stakeholder analysis
- Expert judgement
16
Q
1
What are the outputs of Identify Stakeholders?
A
1
There are 2.
- Stakeholder register
- Stakeholder management strategy
17
Q
1
Within the stakeholder analysis technique, how do you identify key stakeholders and other stakeholders?
A
1
Key stakeholders are usually easy to identify. They include anyone in a decision-making or management role who is impacted by the outcome. Other stakeholders are usually identified by interviewing stakeholders and asking them for others. Plus expert judgment (2nd technique).
18
Q
1
How might you prioritize your stakeholders?
A
1
Use a power/ interest grid; use a power / influence grid; use an influence/ impact grid; use a salience Model (describing stakeholders in terms of their power, urgency and legitimacy)
19
Q
1
What are the inputs for Plan Communications?
A
1
There are 4.
- Stakeholder register
- Stakeholder management strategy
- Enterprise environmental factors
- Organizational Process Assets
20
Q
1
What are the tools and techniques for Plan communications?
A
1
There are 4.
- Communication requirements analysis
- Communication technology.
- Communication models.
- Communication methods.
21
Q
1
What are the outputs of Plan Communications?
A
1
There are 2.
- Communications management plan.
- Project document updates.
22
Q
1
What is the formula to calculate the number of communication channels?
A
1
n (n-1) / 2
where n represents the number of stakeholders.
23
Q
1
Who is responsible for ensuring that communication is properly understood?
A
1
The sender is responsible for making the information clear and complete so that the recipient can receive it correctly, and for confirming that it is properly understood.
24
Q
1
What is the receiver of communication responsible for?
A
1
The receiver is responsible for making sure that the information is received in its entirety, understood correctly and acknowledged.
25
1
Name 3 communication methods:
1
```
Interaction communication - a multi-directional exchange of information
Push communications
Pull communications (intranet, e-learning, knowledge repositories etc)
```
26
1
What are the inputs to distribute information?
1
There are 3.
1. Project management plan
2. Performance reports
3. Organizational process assets
27
1
What are the tools and techniques for Distribute Information?
1
There are 2.
1. Communication methods
2. Information Distribution Tools
28
1
What are the outputs of Distribute Information?
1
There is 1.
1. Organizational process assets updates
29
1
Who is responsible for stakeholder expectations management?
1
The project manager is responsible for stakeholder expectations management. Actively managing stakeholder expectations decreases the risk that the project will fail to meet its goals and objectives due to unresolved stakeholder issues, and limits disruptions during the project.
30
1
What are the inputs of Manage Stakeholder expectations?
1
There are 6.
1. Stakeholder register
2. Stakeholder management strategy
3. Project management plan
4. Issue log
5. Change log
6. Organization Process assets
31
1
What are the tools and techniques of Manage Stakeholder Expectations?
1
There are 3.
1. Communication methods
2. Interpersonal skills
3. Management skills
32
1
What are the outputs of Manage Stakeholder expectations?
1
There are 4.
1. Organizational process assets
2. Change requests.
3. Project management plan updates.
4. Project document updates
33
1
Describe Report Performance process within Project Communications Management.
1
Report performance is the process of collecting and distributing performance information, including status reports, progress measurements and forecasts.
34
1
What are the inputs of Report Performance?
1
There are 5.
1. Project management plan
2. Work performance information.
3. Work performance measurements.
4. Budget forecasts
5. Organizational process assets
35
1
What are the tools and techniques of Report Performance?
1
Performance?
There are 4.
1. Variance analysis
2. Forecasting methods.
3. Communication methods.
4. Reporting systems.
36
1
What are the outputs of Report Performance?
1
There are 3.
1. Performance reports
2. Organisation Process Asset Updates
3. Change requests
37
1
What is variance analysis?
1
Variance analysis is an after-the-fact look at what caused a difference between the baseline and the actual performance. It is part of the Report Performance process step in Project Communication Management.
38
1
What are forecasting methods?
1
Forecasting is the process of predicting future project performance based on the actual performance to date. Forecasting methods may be classified in different categories - time series methods, causal /econometric methods, judgment methods.
39
1
What is project risk management?
1
Project risk management is the process of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control on a project.
40
1
What are the objectives of project risk management?
1
The objectives of project risk management are to increase the probability and impact of positive events and decrease the probability and impact of negative events in the project.
41
1
How many processes are there in Project Risk Management?
1
There are 6.
1. Plan Risk Management
2. Identify Risks.
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis.
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis.
5. Plan Risk Responses.
6. Monitor and Control Risks
42
1
When in time is project risk placed?
1
Project risk is always in the future. Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has an effect on at least one project objective. (objectives can include scope, schedule, cost and quality).
43
1
What might cause a risk?
1
Casues may be a requirement, assumption, constraint or a condition that creates the poosibility of negative or positive outcomes.
44
1
Is project risk present in all projects?
1
Yes. Project risk has its origins in the uncertainty present in all projects.
45
1
What are known risks?
1
Known risks are those that have been identified and analyzed, making it possible to plan responses to those risks.
46
1
What are unknown risks?
1
Specific unknown risks cannot be actively managed proactively, which suggests that the project team should create a contingency plan.
47
1
What is an issue?
1
A project risk that has occurred can also be considered an issue.
48
1
What is risk tolerance?
1
Organizations and stakeholders are willing to accept varying degrees of risk. This is called risk tolerance.
49
1
What is Plan Risk Management?
1
Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project. good risk management planning increases the probability of success of the other five risk management processes.
50
1
When should Plan Risk Management be done?
1
The plan risk management process should begin as a project is conceived and should be completed early in the project.
51
1
What are the inputs for Plan Risk Management?
1
There are 6.
1. Project scope statement
2. Cost management plan
3. Schedule management plan
4. Communications management plan
5. Enterprise environmental factors
6. Organizational process assets
52
1
What are the tools and techniques for Plan Risk Management?
1
There is 1.
1. Planning meetings and analysis
53
1
What are the outpus of Plan Risk Management?
1
There is 1.
1. Risk management plan.
54
1
Which organization process assets are relevant for Plan Risk Management?
1
In PMBOK there are 8:
Risk categories
Common definitions of concepts and terms
Risk statement formats
Standard templates
Roles and responsibilities
Authority levels for decision making
Lessons learned
Stakeholder registers, which are also critical assets to be reviewed as components of establishing effective risk management plans
55
Who attends Planning Meetings and Analysis during Plan Risk Management?
Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk maangement plan. Attendees at those meetings may include the project manager, selected project team members and stakeholders, anyone in the organisation with responsibility to manage the risk planning and execution activities, and others as needed.
56
What should be include in the Risk Management Plan?
10 things.
Methodology - tools, approaches which will be used
Roles and responsibilities
Budgeting - resources, funds, protocols for application of contingency reserve
Timing - frequency of reviews
Risk Categories - risk breakdown structure (RBS)
Definitions of probability and impact
Probability and impact matrix
Revised stakeholder tolerances
Reporting formats
Tracking - how will risks be tracked, transferred to lessons learned etc.
57
What is the contingency reserve?
Check
58
What is a risk breakdown structure?
A Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is a hierarchically organised depiction of the identified project risks arranged by risk category.
59
How is a RBS useful?
RBS lists the categories and sub-categories where risks may arise. It may remind participants in risk identification exercise about the many sources from which project risk may arise.
60
What is the Identify Risks process?
Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics.
61
Who particpates in Identify Risk Process?
Participants in identify risks might include project manager, project team members, risk management team (if assigned), customers, SMEs, end users, other PMs, stakeholders, risk management experts. These are key personnel, but ALL project personnel should be encouraged to idenfity risks.
62
Is Identify Risk Process a once off process?
No, it is an iterative process because new risks may evolve or become known as the project progresses. The frequency of iteration and who participates in each cycle will vary by situation.
63
What are the inputs into Identify Risk process?
There are 11.
1. Risk management plan
2. Activity cost estimates
3. Activity duration estimates
4. Scope baseline
5. Stakeholder register
6. Cost management plan
7. Schedule management plan
8. Quality management plan
9. Project documents
10. Enterprise environmental factors
11. Organisational process assets
64
What are the tools and techniques for Identify Risk Process?
There are 7.
1. Documentation reviews
2. Information gathering techniques
3. Checklist analysis
4. Assumptions analysis
5. Diagramming techniques
6. SWOT analysis
7. Expert judgement
65
Why is activity cost estimates an input to the Identify Risk process?
activity cost estimate reviews are useful in identifying risk as they provide a quantitative assessment of the likely cost to complete scheduled activities and ideally are expressed as a range. Review may result in realising that the estimates are either sufficient or insufficient to complete the activity.
66
As part of the tools and techniques for identifying risks, what are some information gathering techniques?
There are 4 listed.
Brainstorming.
Delphi technique.
Interviewing
Root cause analysis.
67
What is Delphi technique?
There are 4 listed.
Brainstorming.
Delphi technique.
Interviewing
Root cause analysis.
68
What is Delphi technique?
Delphi technique is a way of reaching consensus amongst experts. Participants participate anonymously. The Delphi technique helps to reduce bias and keeps any one person from having undue influence on the outcome.
69
What is Root Cause Analysis?
Root cause analysis is a specific technique to identify a problem, discover the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action.
70
What is Checklist Analysis during Identify Risks?
Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge from previous projects - exhaustive risk list.
71
As part of the tools for Identify Risks, what are the diagramming techniques?
There are 3 listed in PMBOK.
1. Cause and effect diagrams, also known as Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams, are useful for identifying causes of risks.
2. System or process flow chartes - showing how the various elements of a system interallate and the mechanism of causation.
3. Influence diagrams - graphical representations showing causal influences, time order of events and other relationships between variables and outcomes.
72
What does the Risk Register include?
The risk register is an output of Identify Risks. It includes a list of identified risks and may include a list of potential responses (which could be useful during Plan Risk Responses process)
73
What is Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritising risks for further analysis or action by accessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.
74
How do you reduce bias when performing Qualitative Risk Analysis?
Establishing definitions of the levels of probability and impact can reduce the influence of bias.
75
Is Perform Qualitative Risk Anaylsis mandatory?
Yes.
76
When is Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis performed?
It is performed after first Identifying Risks, but should be revisited during the project's life cycle to stay current with changes in the project risks.
77
What are the Inputs for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
There are 4.
1. Risk Register
2. Risk management plan.
3. Project scope statement
4. Organisational process assets
78
What are the Tools and Techniques for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
There are 6.
1. Risk probability and impact assessments.
2. Probability and impact matrix
3. Risk data quality assessment
4. Risk categorisation
5. Risk urgency assessment
6. Expert judgement.
79
What are the outputs for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
There is 1.
1. Risk register updates.
80
For which process is Risk Data Quality Assessment a tool / technique?
It is used in Qualitative Risk Analysis, which requires accurate and unbiased data if it is to be credible. It assesses whether the data is accurate enough to be useful for risk management.
81
What is Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?
It is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risk on overall project performance. It is performed on risks that have been prioritised during the Qualitative Risk Assessment.
82
Is Quantitative Risk Analysis mandatory?
No. In some cases it may not be required to develop effective risk responses.
83
What are the inputs for Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?
There are 5.
1. Risk register
2. Risk management plan
3. Cost management plan
4. Schedule management plan
5. Organisation Process Assets
84
What are the tools and techniques used in Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
There are 3.
1. Data gathering and representation
2. Quantitative Risk analysis and modelling techniques
3. Expert judgement
85
What are the outputs of Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?
There is 1.
1. Risk register updates
86
What is a 3 point estimate? When is it used?
3 point estimates are used during Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis. Info would be gathered on the optimistic (low), pessimistic (high) and most likely scenarios.
87
What is sensitivity analysis?
This helps to determine which risk have the most potential impact on the project. An example is the tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing the importance and impact of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable.
88
What is Expected monetary value?
EMV is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen. EMV of opportunties are expressed as +ve values; EMV of threats are -ve values.
89
Give an example of when EMV is used?
Expected monetary value is often used in a decision tree.
90
Describe the Plan Risk Responses process
This is the process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.
91
Is Plan Risk Responses the same on every project?
No. Plan Risk Responses must be appropriate to the significance of the risk, cost effective in meeting the challenge , realistic within the project context, agreed upon by all parties and owned by a repsonsible person.
92
What are the Inputs for Plan Risk Responses?
There are 2.
1. Risk register
2. Risk management plan.
93
What are the Tools and Techniques for Plan Risk Responses?
There are 4.
1. Strategies for negative risks or threats.
2. Strategies for positive risks or opportuniities
3. Contingent response strategies
4. Expert judgement
94
What are the Outputs for Plan Risk Response?
There are 4
1. Risk register updates
2. Risk related contract decisions
3. Project Management plan updates
4. Project document updates
95
What are strategies for a negative risk or threat?
Avoid - changing the project managment plan to elimated the threat;
Transfer - shifting some or all of the negative impact of a threat, along with ownership of the response, to a third party.
Mitigate - reduce the probability and / or impact to within acceptable threshold limits
Accept - team has decided not to change the project management plan, or is unable to identify any other suitable risk responses
96
What are strategies for a positive risk or opportunity?
Exploit - eliminate the uncertainty to ensure the opportunity definitely happens;
Share - allocating some or all of the ownership to a third party who is best able to capture the benefit;
Enhance - increase the probability of occuring and / or the positive impact of the event
Accept - do not actively pursue, see what happens
97
What are contingent response strategies?
This is a risk response tool / technique use in Plan Risk Responses, where a response will only be executed under some pre-defined conditions.Triggering events should be tracked
98
Describe the Monitor and Control Risks process
Monitor and control risks is the process of implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project.
99
What are the inputs for Monitor and Control Risk?
There are 4.
1. Risk register
2. Project management plan
3. Work performance information
4. Performance reports
100
What are the Tools and Techniques for Monitor and Control Risks?
There are 6.
1. Risk reassessment
2. Risk audits
3. Variance and trend analysis
4. Technical performance measurement
5. Reserve analysis
6. Status meetings
101
What are the Outputs of the Monitor and Control Risks process?
There are 5.
1. Risk register updates
2. Organizational Process Assets
3. Change requests
4. Project management plan updates
5. Project document updates
102
What is residual risk?
A residual risk is the risk that remains after risk responses have been implemented
103
How is Variance and Trend Analysis used as a technique within Monitor and Control risks?
For the purposes of monitoring and controlling risk events, trends in the project's execution should be reviewed using performance information. Earned value analysis and other methods of project variance and trend analysis may be used for monitoring overall project performance.
104
Describe "Technical Performance Management" as a technique for monitoring and controlling risks.
Technical performance management compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the project management plan's schedule of technical achievement. Measures might include weight, transaction times, number of delivered defects, storage capacity.
105
What is "Reserve Analysis" within Monitoring and Controlling risks?
Reserve Analysis is a technique within Monitoring and Controlling risks. Reserve Analysis compares remaining reserve to remaining risk to determine if the remaining reserve is adequate
106
Why are Change Requests an Output from Monitoring and Controlling Risks?
They may arise from implementing contingency plans or workarounds. They may be either corrective actions or preventive actions.
107
What is Plannned Value?
The authorised budget assigned to the work to be accomplished for an activity or work breakdown structure component.
108
What is Earned Value?
EV is the authorised budget assigned to a work activity or work breakdown structure component that has been completed.
109
What is the Actual Cost?
AC is the total cost actually incurred for an activity or work breakdown structure component.
110
What is Schedule Variance?
SV is a measure of schedule performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value - the planned value.
111
What is the formula for Schedule variance?
SV = EV - PV
112
What is Cost Variance?
CV is a measure of the cost performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value - the actual cost.
113
What is the formula for Cost Variance?
CV = EV - AC
114
What is the schedule performance index?
The Schedule Performance Index is a measure of progress achieved compared to the progress planned on a project.
115
Is an SPI less than 1 good or bad?
Less than 1 for SPI or CPI is bad. An SPI value less than 1 indicates that less work was completed than was planned.
116
What is the formula for SPI?
SPI = EV/ PV
117
What is the cost performance index?
The cost performance index is a measure of the work completed compared to the actual cost or progress made on the project.
118
Is a CPI greater than 1 good or bad?
Greater than 1 for CPI or SPI is good. A CPI less than 1 indicates a cost overrun for work completed; greater than 1 indicates a cost underrun of performance to date.
119
What is the formula for CPI ?
CPI = EV / AC
120
What is the tip for remembering the EVM formulae?
EV always comes "first" or "on top". In the SPI and CPI formulas, EV is top; in SV and CV, EV comes first.
For Schedule, always consider Planned value
For Cost, always consider Actual Cost.
121
What is Brainstorming?
A general data gathering and creativity technique that can be used to identify risks, ideas or solution to issues by using a group of team members or subject matter experts.
122
What is a contingency reserve?
The amount of funds, budget, or time need above the estimate to reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization.
123
What is the Delphi techniques?
An information gathering technique used to reach consensus with experts participating anonymously. The Delphi technique helps to reduce bias and keeps one person from having undue influence on the outcome.
124
What are Enterprise Environmental Factors?
Any or all external and internal factors that surround or influence the project's success. They may include culture, structure, infrastructure, existing resources, commercial databases, marketing conditions, project management software.
125
What is Failure Mode and Effect Anaylsis?
FMEA is an analytical procedure in which each potential failure mode in every component of a product is analyzed to determine it effect on reliability.
126
What is Monte Carlo analysis?
A technique that computes or iterates, the proejct cost or project schedule many times using input values selected at random from probability distributions. It calculates a distribution of possible total project cost or completion dates.
127
What is an Opportunity?
A condition or situation favourable to the project, a positive set of circumstances, a positive set of events, a risk that will ahve a positive impact on project objectives.
128
What are Organisation Process Assets?
Any or all process relates assets from any or all of the organisations involved in a project. May include formal and informal plans, policies, procedures, guidelines, lessons learned, historical information.
129
What is Performn Qualitative Risk Analysis?
The process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.
130
What is Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?
The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.
131
What is preventive action?
A documented direction to perform an activity that can reduce the probability of negative consequences associated with project risks.
132
What is a Reserve?
A provision in the project management plan to mitigate cost and / or schedule risk. Often used with a modifier (e.g. management reserve, contingency reserve) to provide further detail on what types of risks are meant to be mitigated.
133
What is Risk Acceptance?
A risk response planning technique that indicates that the project team has decided not to change the project management plan to deal with a risk, or is unable to identify any other suitable response strategy.
134
What is Risk Avoidance?
A risk response planning technique for a threat that creates changes to the project management plan that are meant to either eliminate the risk or to protect the project objectives from its impact.
135
What is a Risk Breakdown Structure?
A hierarchically organised depiction of the identified project risks arranged by risk category and subcategory that identifies the various areas and causes of potential risks.
136
What is a Risk Category?
A group of potential causes of risk.
137
What is Risk Mitigation?
A risk response planning technique associated with threats that seeks to reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk to below an acceptable threshold.
138
What is Risk Tolerance?
The degree, amount or volume of risk that an organisation or individual with withstand.
139
What is Risk Transference?
A risk response planning technique that shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, together with ownership of the response.
140
What is a Secondary Risk?
A risk that arises as a direct result of implementing a risk response.
141
What are Risk Triggers?
Indications that a risk has occurred or is about to occur. Sometimes called risk symptoms or warning signs.
142
What is a Workaround?
A response to a negative risk that has occurred. Distinguished from a contingency plan in that a workaround is not planned in advance of the occurrence of the risk event.
143
What are "known unknowns", and which kind of reserve might you allocate?
Known unknowns are risk that can be identified and analysed. Can allocate a contingency reserve.
144
What are "unknown unknowns", and which kind of reserve might you allocate?
Unknown unknowns are risks that cannot be predicted with any accuracy, e.g. a natural disaster. Can allocate a management reserve.
145
What is Nominal Group Technique?
A technique used to identify risks where each member of the group writes down potential risks on sticky notes - no discussion, and ask members to rate individually. Then tabulate.
146
When are Affinity Diagrams used in Risk Management?
Used a technique to identify risks, grouping potential risks into columns of "like" things.
147
What is PERT?
Program Evaluation and Review Technique - PERT - uses three estimates to define an approximate range for an activity's duration (or cost).
148
What is the formula for Three Point Estimates (PERT)?
E = (O + 4M + P)/ 6. Expected amount = optimistic plus 4x most likely + pessimistic all divided by 6.
149
What is the formula for standard deviation?
Standard Deviation = P - O / 6 = (pessimistic estimate - optimistic estimate) divided by 6.
150
How accurate is 1 standard deviation?
Accurate to 1 standard deviation means that the estimate is 68% accurate; a range of -34% to +34%
151
How accurate is 2 standard deviations?
Accurate to 2 standard deviations means that the estimate is 95% accurate; a range of -47.5% to +47.5%
152
How accurate is 3 standard deviations?
3 standard deviations is 99% accurate - a range of - 49.5% to + 49.5%
153
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