Scenario & potential analysis

Question 1

How do we define scenarios? (3)

Answer 1

• view
• tool
• method

Question 2

6 type of scenario studies

Answer 2

• forecasts
• roadmaps
• backcasts
• technical scenarios
• visions
• exploratory scenarios

Question 3

Some scenario’s are … and others are…

Answer 3

descriptive

normative

Question 4

descriptive studies:

Answer 4

• descriptive likely futures based on existing trends or drivers
• do not aim to present a picture of a desired future

Question 5

normative studies

Answer 5

aim to produce a picture of a desired future, or to elaborate possible routes towards such a future

Question 6

types of descriptive studies

Answer 6

• forecasts
• exploratory
• technical scenarios (potential studies)

Question 7

forecasts

Answer 7

predict likely future from current trend

Question 8

exploratory scenario

Answer 8

explore possible futures

- emphasizes drivers, and have no predetermined end state

Question 9

Technical scenario

Answer 9

• explore possible futre technological systems

- emphasizes technical feasibility and implications of different options

Question 10

Types of normative studies

Answer 10

• visions
• backcasts
• roadmaps

Question 11

visions

Answer 11

• elaboration of a desirable future

- emphasizes benefits of future, not pathway

Question 12

backcasts (pathway)

Answer 12

• start by defining desirable future end point
• investigate possible paths towards that point

(not an actual look at the past)

Question 13

roadmaps

Answer 13

-describe a sequence of measures designed to bring about a desirable future

Question 14

What is the purpose of explorative scenarios?

Answer 14

• answer “what would happen if …?” questions

- help policy makers steer and create policies in the right direction

Question 15

ΔWEM

Answer 15

with existing measures

Question 16

ΔWAM

Answer 16

with additional measures

Question 17

ΔBAU

Answer 17

business as usual scenario

Question 18

BAU is also know ans

Answer 18

WEM, baseline or reference scenario

Question 19

when do we use WAM

Answer 19

extra scenario’s are added when uncertainties exist

Question 20

Limitation of exploratory scenario’s

Answer 20

• Your outcome is dependent on your input
• if you don’t put it in you can’t get it out
• rubbish in = rubbish out

Question 21

Exploratory scenario’s have difficulties projecting

Answer 21

• structural change
• technological change

(and can’t project)
-disruptive events like wars, economic crisis, etc.

Question 22

Other name for technical scenario

Answer 22

potential study

Question 23

a potential study does not focus on

Answer 23

policies needed to realize potentials

Question 24

Different types of potentials

Answer 24

• theoretical
• technical
• economic
• market
• (maximum) deployment potential

Question 25

Technical potential

Answer 25

part of the projected demand that can be met with a technology (neglecting stock turnover and limitations in market growth)

Question 26

Techno-economic potential

Answer 26

part of the potential that can be economically realized

Question 27

(maximum) deployment potential

Answer 27

part of the technical potential that can be realized taking into account stock turnover and market growth of new technologies

Question 28

market potential

Answer 28

part of the techno-economic potential that is expected to be realized under baseline / BAU conditions

Question 29

policy potential

Answer 29

part of the deployment potential that can be realized with additional policies to overcome market failures and barriers. the policy potential add up to the market potential.

Question 30

stock turnover

Answer 30

conversion of existing stock into new stock happends over time

Question 31

the right type of potential analysis to support target setting by policy makers

Answer 31

deployment potential

Question 32

deployment potential (key points)

Answer 32

- target period - realistic - includes stock turnover - insight in both cost -effective and -ineffective options

Question 33

How many steps to set up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 33

5

Question 34

What is step 1 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 34

1) choose an exiting baseline scenario as starting point

Question 35

What is step 2 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 35

2) identify the energy/CO2 performance in the base year

Question 36

What is step 3 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 36

3. construct a frozen technology baseline

Question 37

What is step 4 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 37

determine the market share of the technology and the annual supply in the base year

Question 38

What is step 5 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

Answer 38

determine the deployment potential by applying maximum annual growth of the technology - accounting for stock turnover and immature supply markets

Question 39

Energy / CO2 performance

Answer 39

energy or co2 use per unit of activity indicator