What is Risk Evaluation concerned with?
Risk evaluation concerns the judgements made on whether a risk is tolerable or not.
True / False?
A trade-off between benefit and harm is required in terms of Societal Risk
True!
Risk evaluation concerns the judgements made on whether a risk is tolerable or not.
Therefore, there is need for a framework (which can be regarded as setting criteria for what is tolerable within a society) – i.e. we need the trade-off
Societal Risk is a measure used by engineers to assess ___________.
Societal Risk is a measure used by engineers to assess risk and make judgements about tolerability.
Soecital Risk is the expected consequence (seriousness or impact) of the risk. Hence the components of societal risk are:
(2 items)
- Probability through data on occurrence / from theoretical models such as Fault Trees
- Consequence from historic evidence on consequences of similar events / from modelling potential consequences.
What is Farmer’s Approach?
A graphical approach which decides whether a risk is tolerable, justifiable or ALARP. (Find pictures on myplace)
What is Tolerability of Risk (TOR)?
A redeveloped Farmers graph from the HSE, which emphasises the importance of reduction. (Find pictures on myplace)
Methods for assessing Risk Perception include:
2 items
- Revealed Preferences - based on historical risk data, benefits and peoples’ behavior.
- Expressed Preferences - gauges peoples’ expressed preferences through attitude surveys. The aim is to assess peoples’ belief and the strength of said beliefs.
State drawbacks of Revealed Preferences
- There are difficulties interpreting results
- Awareness about risks has increased, so generally people are more sensitised
- New risks arise from innovation, the rapid change gives no basis for comparison with the past
- Past decision, expression of preferences may be due to decision makers or pressure groups rather than general consensus
- Views on risk change with time
State drawbacks of Expressed Preferences
- Difficulties interpreting data
- Problem of utility in the survey. Are you consciously trying to change views or opinions?
- Are the respondents in a position to express an informed opinion? Who can weigh the benefits and the risk?
There are four general forms of human behaviour towards risk.
Describe #1 Nature Benign
It will be tolerant of human behaviour and so a laissez-faire attitude will be acceptable. It is predictable, bountiful, robust, stable and forgiving.
There are four general forms of human behaviour towards risk.
Describe #2 Nature Ephemeral
It will be fragile and intolerant of human behaviour and so a precautionary approach should be taken. It is precarious and unforgiving.
There are four general forms of human behaviour towards risk.
Describe #3 Nature Perverse / Intolerant
It will be tolerant to some extent but beyond this it will become perverse. It can sustain some change but not excessive change.
There are four general forms of human behaviour towards risk.
Describe #4 Nature Capricious
It is unpredictable and random.
There are also four behavioural traits.
What does it mean to be a Fatalist?
Social isolates with little control. Resigned to their fate.
There are also four behavioural traits.
What does it mean to be a Individualist?
In relative control of the situation. Believe they can change the world.
There are also four behavioural traits.
What does it mean to be a Hierarchist?
Bound by the structure they inhabit. Believe in regulation.
There are also four behavioural traits.
What does it mean to be a Egalitarian?
Strong group loyalties. Believe in democracy in making changes
The Health and Safety at Work Act is presented in 6 stages, namely:
Stage 1: Deciding whether the issue is primarily one for HSC/E
Stage 2: Define and characterising the issue
Stage 3: Examining the options available for addressing the issue, and their merits.
Stage 4: Adopting a particular course of action
Stage 5: Implementing the decision
Stage 6: Evaluation
What is the Precautionary Principle?
It means that when there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, a lack of full scientific certainty will not be used as a reason for postponing cost effective measures to prevent degradation.
