RIPS
Random / unpredictable event
Independent event
Proportional. Constant rate throughout the time interval.
Simotaneous (not).
FIST
Fixed # of trials
Independent events
Same probability
Two outcomes only
Inverse Poisson
Make x =0 and find the prob
Area = e to the -ve lambda
ln(a) = -lam lin(e)
ln(a) - -ve lam
lam = -ln(a)
If binomial has
___ and ____
Multiply the 2 answers
Different assumptions
Dependent/Independent
Environments
Picked from a random selection
N.D with a min & pax percentage
Find the 2 z-scores
Use the z-score formula
Change it around
Use simotaneous on calc
How to find the z-score?
Z = (x-m) / s.d
In inverse
Mean = 0, s.d = 1
S.D of triangular
sqrt(a^2+b^2+c^2)+(ab)+(ac)+(bc)
/
18
Mean of triangular
a + b + c / 3
Mean of rectangular
a + b /2
S.D of rectangular
1/sqrt12 x (b-a)
If something happens to two people
Square the answer
Does a N.D fit?
Symetrical
Bell-shaped
Continuous
Higher or lower than bounds shown
68% in 1, 95% in 2, 99.7% in 3
Jusitfy/assumtions for any discrete distribution
That no value is lesser/greater than what is listed
How to find if DRV are independent
VAR(x+y) = var(x) + var(y)
At least 5/10 xxx are smaller than xxx in a triangular distribution
Use triangular first
Then use binomial
Compare a normal distribution to another one
Talk about the mean and S.D
One mean is larger, by xx, meaning that it will produce more on average.
S.D is larger, meaning that it’s more consistent.
Part in the middle is one, parts on the edge is the other.
Poisson or binomial occurs at least xxx in 5 different things. Calculate & assume
The answer to the power of 5.
We’re assuming it’s independent, but this may not be valid because…
Given that something already happened, what’s the liklehood of another thing happening?
(p x>1) / p (x>2)
Given that … on the bottom.
If it’s less than, on the top do (y<x<z)
In binomial/poisson: p(x>=6)
1 - P(x<=5)
Calculate something OR something
Do the 2 and add them
Compare the liklehood of events. How much more likely is a than b?
Divide the biggest answer by the smallest. What it equals to is how much more likely it is.
The probability of two things both happening
Do the maths, then multiply their answers
Binomial or poisson, there is an unknown n number of something, the prob of at least 1 being … is 0.9. What is n?
Find out the prob of 0, which is 1-p(x>=1).
What’s the probability that that thing isn’t?
Probability to the n = probability p(x=0)
Logs