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Thinking Fast & Slow Flashcards

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1
Q

What characterizes System 1?

A

Intuitive, unconscious, cannot be controlled.

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2
Q

What characterizes System 2?

A

Deliberate, energy consuming, logical.

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3
Q

What physiological response is associated with System 2 effort?

A

Pupil dilation.

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4
Q

What type of tasks does System 1 handle?

A

Simple tasks based on pattern recognition.

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5
Q

What type of tasks does System 2 handle?

A

Complex tasks using limited short term memory capacity.

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6
Q

What happens to pupils after completing a high-effort task?

A

Pupils contract.

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7
Q

How does glucose relate to System 2 performance?

A

Replenishing glucose enables System 2 to expend effort effectively.

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8
Q

What is ego depletion?

A

Decrease in ability to use System 2 to concentrate.

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9
Q

What effect does ego depletion have on decision making?

A

Increases likelihood of accepting easy System 1 responses.

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10
Q

What is associative cognition?

A

System 1 initiates a cascade of linked ideas that create emotions.

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11
Q

What is the exposure effect?

A

Familiarity increases the likelihood of accepting new information.

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12
Q

How does familiarity affect emotional responses?

A

Leads to good emotions, enhancing System 1 effectiveness.

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13
Q

What does WYSIATI stand for?

A

What You See Is All There Is.

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14
Q

What is the impact of first impressions according to WYSIATI?

A

They bias subsequent judgments.

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15
Q

What is the relationship between competence and physical traits?

A

Strong jaw and slight smile often interpreted as competence.

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16
Q

What does System 1 struggle with in judgment tasks?

A

Processing quantities and statistical information.

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17
Q

What is the law of small numbers?

A

Small samples are more likely to generate extreme outcomes.

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18
Q

What is anchoring in decision-making?

A

Bias created when System 2 is uncertain about how much to deviate from an anchor.

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19
Q

What is the availability heuristic?

A

Assessment of likelihood based on ease of recall from memory.

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20
Q

What is the affect heuristic?

A

Decisions made based on emotional responses.

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21
Q

What does Bayes’ theorem help with?

A

Updating prior beliefs with new information.

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22
Q

What is regression to the mean?

A

Observed results tend to move towards the average over time.

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23
Q

What is the effect of framing questions statistically?

A

It can help System 2 identify relationships more clearly.

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24
Q

How does hindsight bias affect understanding?

A

Creates an illusion of understanding by overstating confidence in known outcomes.

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25
What does regression to the mean reduce in decision making?
It reduces the causal explanatory power of patterns ## Footnote It suggests that outcomes are more influenced by luck than by decisions made.
26
What illusion does hindsight create in understanding past experiences?
It creates an illusion of understanding through causal factors used to explain past experience ## Footnote Memory can overstate confidence in known outcomes.
27
Define the Halo Effect.
It is where positive results lead individuals or processes to be viewed positively, or vice versa.
28
How does regression to the mean relate to exceptional behavior?
It explains that part of exceptional behavior is influenced by luck.
29
How do small levels of skill compare to random luck in prediction?
Small levels of skill showed slightly better performance than random luck.
30
What is the performance of experts with high levels of skill compared to random luck?
Experts showed poorer performance than random luck.
31
What does confidence measure in relation to theories?
Confidence measures how coherent the theory is in an individual's mind, not its accuracy.
32
What characteristics define a 'Hedgehog' in decision making?
Defensive, opinionated, and oversimplifies causal explanations.
33
What characteristics define a 'Fox' in decision making?
Understands and accepts the random nature of the world and its complexity.
34
What is the relationship between simple formulas and experienced experts in judgement?
Simple formulas often outperform experienced experts.
35
Fill in the blank: A simple formula for marital success is __________.
Frequency of Love Making less Frequency of quarrels.
36
What is a downside to human estimation of uncertain outcomes?
Humans are inconsistent and give different answers to the same question.
37
What can lead to hostility towards algorithms outperforming human judgement?
Experts' validation during short-term predictions.
38
What is a premortem?
A technique where a group considers a future worst-case scenario and explains what went wrong.
39
What does the Outside View refer to in decision making?
It refers to statistics that are usually ignored when conflicting with inside views.
40
Overconfidence leads individuals to underestimate what?
Risk.
41
What is WYSIATI?
What You See Is All There Is.
42
What does utility theory argue about preference?
Preference is determined by psychological scales rather than real-world scales.
43
What does loss aversion indicate?
Losses are treated as more painful than equivalent gains.
44
What does Prospect Theory combine?
* Reference point * Losses are more painful than gains * Relativity of amounts.
45
What does the Endowment Effect measure?
It measures perceived losses or gains relative to a reference point.
46
What brain region controls emotional responses to threats?
Amygdala.
47
How do individuals evaluate fairness in terms of losses and gains?
They view exploitation of gains as unfair but passing on losses as fair.
48
What does the Certainty Effect lead to?
It leads to excessive weights at extreme probabilities.
49
What is Narrow Framing?
Considering multiple decisions as a series of individual decisions.
50
What is Broad Framing?
Considering multiple decisions in a decision-making network.
51
What is the Denominator Effect?
It leads individuals to inadequately assess probabilities by focusing on the sample event.
52
What leads to overestimating the likelihood of rare events?
* Focus * Cognitive bias * Cognitive ease.
53
What can visualizing outcomes increase?
The certainty effect on probabilities.
54
What does broad framing allow for?
The interaction of variables ## Footnote Broad framing reduces net loss aversion relative to narrow framing.
55
How does loss aversion affect the utility curve?
It steepens in negative utility space.
56
What is the advice to reduce unnecessary loss aversion?
Think about the world in terms of dependent and independent variables.
57
What is the caveat regarding gambles?
They should not threaten quality of life or be unreasonably unlikely to pay off.
58
What is the benefit of diversification?
It increases overall welfare by enabling individual losses to cancel out.
59
What do individuals create to measure success or failure?
Mental 'accounts'.
60
What is the sunk cost fallacy?
The effect of holding onto or investing further in bad investments to prevent an account from closing as a loss.
61
How does regret manifest in decision-making?
It is experienced and attributed strongly when there is a departure from the norm.
62
Regret is dependent on what factor?
Anticipation.
63
How does joint evaluation differ from single evaluation?
Joint evaluation allows for comparison across intensity scales, while single evaluation does not.
64
What is the impact of anchoring in single evaluations?
It can lead to unrealistic judgments.
65
What part of the brain controls emotional responses?
Amygdala.
66
How does framing influence decisions?
It affects which emotions are activated.
67
What is the default option in decision-making?
The option individuals defer to when challenged to engage their System 2.
68
What is the difference between experience utility and expected utility?
Experience utility contrasts pleasure/pain experience vs choice preference.
69
What are the two selves described in decision-making?
Experiencing self and remembering self.
70
What does the experiencing self represent?
Continual monitoring of personal satisfaction/dissatisfaction.
71
What does the remembering self compute?
An average of the intensity curve of satisfaction over the duration of the experience.
72
What is the effect of duration neglect?
It leads to under or over weighting events by the remembering self.
73
How is life satisfaction influenced by marriage according to WYSIATI?
Individuals often recall marriage positively, affecting perceived life satisfaction.
74
What is the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM)?
A technique to measure actual experience of past events.
75
What correlation exists between income and experience satisfaction?
Greater income often leads to lower satisfaction of experiences.
76
What is a significant factor in life satisfaction ratings?
Mood.
77
What does rationality in decision-making involve?
Logical coherence in actions and beliefs.
78
What are 'Econs' defined as?
Rational agents who do not respond to behavioral techniques like framing.
79
What is the role of nudging in decision-making?
To help individuals make good decisions while retaining personal freedoms.
80
What is a characteristic of skilled decision-making?
Speed in reaching accurate conclusions and insensitivity to volume of data.
81
What risks does System 1 introduce in decision-making?
It can return answers not aligned with the question posed.
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