How has NYC changed in regards to crime and public policy?
o NYC in the 1970s o Urban decay o The whole city was a mess o Crime was beginning to sky rocket • Violent crime rates got very high • Crack Epidemic was big influence • The city decides to lock as many people up as possible • But there is a vacuum left and the people that step in aren’t 20 years old with reason they are 16
How did Rudy Giuliani respond to the urban decay?
• Rudy Giuliani, NYC Mayor in 1992/93
o Instituted a new renewal of the NYC police department
o Computerized all crime data, creating COMSTAT data system
• Keeping track of all of this crime and data
o Homicide stated to decline
Broken windows philosophy went along with this
• We no longer let people pee against houses, graffiti on subway
• All these things that would get you a fine at best, now suddenly got you 24 hours in jail
o The Giuliani administration took great credit for this, had a zero tolerance policy
What is the broken windows philosophy?
Why should Guilian take all the credit?
• It came down everywhere, not as much as NYC but it did decline everywhere in US, including Canada
What are potential explanations of the drop in crime in the US?
Is violent crime going down?
Violence in Police Data, ER Data and Victim Surveys Denmark ,1995-2014
o Violence is coming down both in ER Data and Victim Surveys
o No one really knows why crime is dropping
o Every justice minister will take credit for it
What are crime control theologies?
Walker, Conservative and Liberal Theology
o Called Theology because no one can really prove that they’re right with crime rates going up and down
What is conservative theology?
What is liberal theology?
What are four types of crime prevention?
o Legal Prevention: Traditional criminal justice system
• E.g., direct effects of deterrence, incapacitation and rehabilitation; plus indirect effects of socialization
o Developmental Prevention: Focuses on social well-being; risk and protective factors
• E.g., poverty, unemployment, education, health
o Community Prevention: Focuses on community well-being
• E.g., social organization; order maintenance (broken windows)
o Situational crime prevention: Focuses on environment
• E.g., building design, landscape, product
What are 3 different ways to think about crime prevention?
Public Health Model, Evidence-based criminology, What works report?
What is the public health model?
o Primary: Reducing risk in overall population
• E.g., general deterrence; developmental programs aimed at all children; general focus situational crime prevention
o Secondary: Reducing risk in high-risk individuals and high risk areas
• E.g., Early interventions for high-risk persons and neighborhoods
o Tertiary: Reducing additional offending among offenders
• E.g., specific deterrence, incapacitation, treatment
o Different levels of prevention
Explain evidence-based criminology?
o Current buzzword – basic idea is that the policies we want to use to enact crime prevention should be based on evidence
o Experimental criminology
• Has its own academy, its own division within the American Society of Criminology, and its own journal
What is the “What Works? Report?
o These are the major conclusions of a 1997 report to Congress, which was based on a systematic review of more than 500 scientific evaluations of crime prevention practices
What factors is the what works evaluation based on?
o A measure of evaluation quality based on 3 primary factors:
• Control of rival causal factors (e.g., randomization)
• did they have treatment and control groups which were randomized?
• Measurement error (e.g., sample loss, selection bias)
• Statistical power (Likelihood of detecting an effect if there is one. Affected by sample size and the base rate of outcome variable)
o Rating these evaluations based on these 3 factors
How were the evaluations in the what works report ranked?
• Evaluations Ranked 1 (weakest) to 5 (strongest)
o Level 1: Correlation
o Level 2: Temporal Order
o Level 3: Comparison with a single comparable control group
o Level 4: Comparison with multiple treatment and control groups
o Level 5: Randomization of treatment and control groups
What evidence did evaluations in what works require?
o Programs that work are those that are reasonably certain to prevent and reduce crime
What is the conclusion of the what works study?
o Conclusion: Crime prevention practices are very under-evaluated
oThe effectiveness of most crime prevention strategies will remain unknown until the nation invests more in evaluation them.
- By scientific standards, there are very few “programs of proven effectiveness
What local institutions did the what works report evaluate in relation to?
What works: