1
Q
What is a heuristic?
A
Use of mental shortcuts to quickly form judgements, make decisions & find solutions to complex problems –> uses a subset of info set.
2
Q
What is the conjunction fallacy?
A
- Inference that a conjoint set of 2 or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set.
- Violates laws of probability that probability of 2 events occurring together is always less than or equal to probability of either one occurring itself.
- Variant of representativeness.
3
Q
What is gambler’s fallacy?
A
- Incorrect belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in future (although they are independent events).
- Variant of representativeness.
4
Q
What is the conservatism/anchoring heuristic?
A
- People make estimates from diff. starting points –> yield diff. estimates, which are biased toward initial values due to insufficient adjustments/extrapolations.
- May also occur when basing estimates on result of some incomplete computations.
- Insufficient & slow adjustments to beliefs in face of new info –> underreaction –> compared to Bayesian updating, people update their posteriors in right direction but by too little in magnitude (underestimate probabilities).
5
Q
What is base rate neglect?
A
- Subjects neglect base rate (or prior probability) which should have major effect on estimation of probability.
- Variant of representativeness.
6
Q
What is the representativeness heuristic?
A
- Probabilities are evaluated by degree to which A is representative of B.
- When A is highly representative of B, probability that A originates from B is judged to be high –> but if A not similar to B, probability that A originates from B is judged to be low.
- However A being more representative does not actually make it more likely –> probabilities overestimated according to Bayes’ rule –> i.e. leads to overreaction to info.
7
Q
What are the 2 types of decision heuristics?
A
1) Representativeness.
2) Conservatism.
8
Q
What are the 3 variants of representativeness?
A
1) Conjunction fallacy.
2) Base rate neglect.
3) Gambler’s fallacy.
