What are 2 methods of estimating the cost of debt?
- Look up yield to maturity on a plain vanilla bond outstanding from the firm
* Limitations:
* Few firms have long term plain vanilla bonds
* If they do, typically not liquid/traded - Look up firm rating and estimate default spread based on rating
* Limitations:
* Different bonds from same firm may have different ratings
* Data typically only available for big, listed firms
* Solution: generate a synthetic rating
How to use a synthetic rating?
- 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑠
- Take synthetic rating belonging to interest coverage ratio (website Damodaran provides conversion tables)
When it is more problematic to use synthetic ratings (3 reasons)?
- Smaller companies
- Markets with higher interest rates than the US and comparable markets
- Companies in markets that hardly rely on debt
Name and explain the 3 different expenditures
Operating expenses
* Generate benefits in the current period (e.g. labor, material)
Capital expenses
* Generate benefits over multiple periods (e.g. building, equipment)
Financial expenses
* Measure cost of non-equity finance (e.g. interest), and are independent of operations
How to adjust debt for operating leases?
- 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑃𝑉(𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠)
- Discount at the pre-tax cost of debt
When you convert operating leases into debt, you also create an asset to counter it of exactly the same value
How to adjust operating earnings for leases?
- 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 = 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 +𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐿𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐿𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡
Approximately equal to:
* 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 = 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 + 𝑃𝑉 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 ×𝑃𝑟𝑒 −𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
How to adjust NetCapEx for R&D?
Research and development expenses:
𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 = 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 + 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟’𝑠 𝑅&𝐷 −𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡
Acquisitions of other firms:
𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝 𝐸𝑥 = 𝑁𝑒𝑡𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 + 𝐴𝑐𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑠 − 𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑐𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
Which valuation to use when? (Firm versus Equity)
Use Equity Valuation
* For firms which have stable leverage, whether high or not
* If equity (stock) is being valued
Use Firm Valuation
* For firms which expect to change leverage over time (e.g. acquisition, LBO)
* For firms for which you have partial information on leverage (e.g. interest expenses are missing)
* In all other cases, where you are more interested in valuing the firm than the equity
When to use DDM and when FCFF?
Dividend Discount Model
* Firms which pay dividends (and repurchase stock) close to Free Cash Flow to Equity
* For firms where FCFE are difficult to estimate (Example: Banks and Financial Service companies)
Use the FCFE Model
* For firms which pay dividends which are significantly higher or lower than the Free Cash Flow to Equity.
* For firms where dividends are not available (Example: Private Companies, IPOs)
When to use Stable / 2 stage / 3 stage growth?
Stable growth: Growth pattern
* Firm is large and growing at a rate close to or less than growth rate of the economy
* Firm is constrained by regulation from growing at rate faster than the economy
* Firm has the characteristics of a stable firm (average risk & reinvestment rates)
2-Stage growth:
* Firm is large & growing at a moderate rate (≤ Overall growth rate + 10%)
* Firm has a single product & barriers to entry with a finite life (e.g. patents)
3-Stage (or n-stage) growth:
* Firm is small and growing at a very high rate (> Overall growth rate + 10%)
* Firm has significant barriers to entry into the business
* Firm has firm characteristics that are very different from the norm
What are the 3 steps of valuation as a bridge?
- Survey the landscape
- Create a narrative for the future
- Check the narrative against history, economic first principles & common sense
What are the 3 ingredients of a runaway story?
- Charismatic, likeable Narrator: The narrator of the business story is someone that you want to see succeed, either because you like the narrator or because
- he/she will be a good role model. Telling a story about disrupting a much business, where you dislike status the quo: The status quo in the business that the story is disrupting is
- dissatisfying (to everyone involved)> With a societal benefit as bonus: And if the story holds, society and humanity will benefit.
What is the formula of a meltdown story?
Untrustworthy storyteller + Story at war with numbers + Bad business model
