(11.4) Testing theories Flashcards

(5 cards)

1
Q

3

Describe testing modernisation theory

A
  • (Clark et al., 2025)
  • Within each GDP decile, calculate transitions to democracy / dictatorship country years
  • Gives probability of regime transition at each development level
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2
Q

3 + photo

Describe the result of testing modernisation theory

A
  • Main empirical implication not validated
  • Development doesn’t predict transitions to democracy
  • Richer countries less likely to transition back to dictatorship
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3
Q

Describe testing institutional theory

A
  • Acemoglu et al., 2019
  • compare growth trajectory pre + post democratic transition
  • relative to comparison countries
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4
Q

Describe the result of testing institutional theory

A
  • Pre-dem: no growth differential between future democracies + autocracies
  • Post-dem: clear positive growth differential in democratising countries
  • Supports institutional theory — democracy appears to cause development
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5
Q

2 + photo

Describe the graph of testing institutional theory

A
  • X-axis = years around democratisation, not calendar year
  • Black line = growth differential between democratising vs permanently autocratic countries
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