(11.4) Testing theories

Question 1

3

Describe testing modernisation theory

Answer 1

• (Clark et al., 2025)
• Within each GDP decile, calculate transitions to democracy / dictatorship country years
• Gives probability of regime transition at each development level

Question 2

3 + photo

Describe the result of testing modernisation theory

Answer 2

• Main empirical implication not validated
• Development doesn’t predict transitions to democracy
• Richer countries less likely to transition back to dictatorship

Question 3

Describe testing institutional theory

Answer 3

• Acemoglu et al., 2019
• compare growth trajectory pre + post democratic transition
• relative to comparison countries

Question 4

Describe the result of testing institutional theory

Answer 4

• Pre-dem: no growth differential between future democracies + autocracies
• Post-dem: clear positive growth differential in democratising countries
• Supports institutional theory — democracy appears to cause development

Question 5

2 + photo

Describe the graph of testing institutional theory

Answer 5

• X-axis = years around democratisation, not calendar year
• Black line = growth differential between democratising vs permanently autocratic countries