(8.4) Process tracing Flashcards

(17 cards)

1
Q

2

Describe process tracing

A
  • Look for evidence within a case of cause-effect: sequence of events showing how X led to Y
  • Identifies phenomenon then works backwards to assess causes
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2
Q

4

What tools does process tracing use?

A
  • Interviews
  • historical narratives
  • archival research
  • quantitative evidence
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3
Q

2

What are the 2 criteria in process tracing tests?

A
  • Passing test is necessary to establish causal connection
  • Passing test is sufficient to establish causal connection
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4
Q

4

What are the 4 process tracing tests?

A
  • Straw in the wind test
  • Hoop test
  • Smoking gun test
  • Doubly decisive test
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5
Q

Describe the straw in the wind test

A
  • very common
  • weakest test
  • Increases/decreases plausibility
  • Does not confirm/rule out
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6
Q

Describe the hoop test

A
  • common
  • Pass affirms relevance
  • Failure more informative - rules out
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7
Q

3

Describe the smoking gun test

A
  • Rare
  • Pass: theory must be accepted
  • Fail: does not eliminate
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8
Q

2

Describe the doubly decisive test

A
  • Very rare/impossible
  • Confirms hypothesis and eliminates all others
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9
Q

2

Describe the outcomes of a hoop test

A
  • Pass: some x do y
  • Fail: no x do y
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10
Q

Describe the outcomes of a smoking gun test

A
  • Pass: all x do y
  • Fail: some x do y
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11
Q

Describe the outcomes of a doubly decisive test

A
  • Pass: all x do y
  • Fail: no x do y
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12
Q

photo

Give a summary table of process tracing

A
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13
Q

2

Describe straw in wind test applied (Germany/Moore)

A
  • Few districts where nobility + bourgeois-backed parties compete → plausible but not decisive
  • Could be due to lack of party penetration in rural/urban areas
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14
Q

Describe hoop test applied (Germany/Moore)

A
  • Look for: correspondence, speeches + institutions showing noble-bourgeois alliance + perception of worker/peasant threat
  • Evidence of conflict/apathy between groups would invalidate theory
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15
Q

Describe smoking gun test applied (Germany/Moore)

A
  • Look for: docs where nobles + bourgeois advocate military expansion to suppress socialist/rural movements
  • If found: sufficient; if not found: theory can still be true (not minuted, docs destroyed)
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16
Q

3

What are the pros of process tracing?

A
  • Can explain how + why a known change occurred
  • Can be applied to virtually any change
  • Very little abstraction: concrete analysis of specific case
17
Q

What are the cons of process tracing?

A
  • Requires large amount of evidence — more time consuming than QCA
  • Difficult to generalise from specific case
  • Requires absolute trust in researcher’s evidence description (risk they only provide evidence matching their hypothesis)