(8.4) Process tracing

Question 1

2

Describe process tracing

Answer 1

• Look for evidence within a case of cause-effect: sequence of events showing how X led to Y
• Identifies phenomenon then works backwards to assess causes

Question 2

4

What tools does process tracing use?

Answer 2

• Interviews
• historical narratives
• archival research
• quantitative evidence

Question 3

2

What are the 2 criteria in process tracing tests?

Answer 3

• Passing test is necessary to establish causal connection
• Passing test is sufficient to establish causal connection

Question 4

4

What are the 4 process tracing tests?

Answer 4

• Straw in the wind test
• Hoop test
• Smoking gun test
• Doubly decisive test

Question 5

Describe the straw in the wind test

Answer 5

• very common
• weakest test
• Increases/decreases plausibility
• Does not confirm/rule out

Question 6

Describe the hoop test

Answer 6

• common
• Pass affirms relevance
• Failure more informative - rules out

Question 7

3

Describe the smoking gun test

Answer 7

• Rare
• Pass: theory must be accepted
• Fail: does not eliminate

Question 8

2

Describe the doubly decisive test

Answer 8

• Very rare/impossible
• Confirms hypothesis and eliminates all others

Question 9

2

Describe the outcomes of a hoop test

Answer 9

• Pass: some x do y
• Fail: no x do y

Question 10

Describe the outcomes of a smoking gun test

Answer 10

• Pass: all x do y
• Fail: some x do y

Question 11

Describe the outcomes of a doubly decisive test

Answer 11

• Pass: all x do y
• Fail: no x do y

Question 12

photo

Give a summary table of process tracing

Answer 12

Question 13

2

Describe straw in wind test applied (Germany/Moore)

Answer 13

• Few districts where nobility + bourgeois-backed parties compete → plausible but not decisive
• Could be due to lack of party penetration in rural/urban areas

Question 14

Describe hoop test applied (Germany/Moore)

Answer 14

• Look for: correspondence, speeches + institutions showing noble-bourgeois alliance + perception of worker/peasant threat
• Evidence of conflict/apathy between groups would invalidate theory

Question 15

Describe smoking gun test applied (Germany/Moore)

Answer 15

• Look for: docs where nobles + bourgeois advocate military expansion to suppress socialist/rural movements
• If found: sufficient; if not found: theory can still be true (not minuted, docs destroyed)

Question 16

3

What are the pros of process tracing?

Answer 16

• Can explain how + why a known change occurred
• Can be applied to virtually any change
• Very little abstraction: concrete analysis of specific case

Question 17

What are the cons of process tracing?

Answer 17

• Requires large amount of evidence — more time consuming than QCA
• Difficult to generalise from specific case
• Requires absolute trust in researcher’s evidence description (risk they only provide evidence matching their hypothesis)