3.6 - Future

Question 1

What are the global trends for the future?

Answer 1

• global decline in poverty
• increased urbanisation
• Increased demand for resources
• aging western population
• increased concerns about economic resilience (due to climate change)
• regional conflicts potentially increasing

Question 2

How can we judge the implications of future trends?

Answer 2

• stability: size of tensions and likelihood
• military activity: conflict, expansion of influence in regions
• resources: extent of shift to renewables, investment in technology
• economics: shift of centre of global trade, supply and demand patterns
• inequality: extent to which divides are narrowed or opened, exploitation
• governance: level of cooperation on global stage, power balance changes

Question 3

What would a unipolar future look like?

Answer 3

• continued US dominance
• Chinese growth stalls (demographic problems due to One Child Policy)

Question 4

What could a bipolar world look like and what would its implications be?

Answer 4

• China becomes an equal to the US
  
  • countries align on either side
• could result in US/EU protectionism and stall globalisation and trade

Question 5

What would a multipolar world look like and what would its implications be?

Answer 5

• EU/US decline while emerging countries grow
• powers dominate over their relevant regions
• IGOs may have to restructure to match shift in power

Question 6

What is the Asian Century?

Answer 6

• projected dominance of Asian economies in 21st century
• US/EU powers decline
• China and India lead other Asian powers

Question 7

What is the best case scenario?

Answer 7

• bipolar world with US and China as main superpowers
  
  • instead of being at odds with each other, cooperate
• global action on climate change, food security and global peace

Question 8

What are the less likely outcomes?

Answer 8

• Restructure of global governance:
  
  • IGOs are phased out
  • instead NGOs are more dominant in taking leadership
  • challenge inequality and injustice more affectively than governments
• Inequalities increase to large extent:
  
  • may cause IGOs such as EU to collapse due to disagreements between members
  • could cause extremists to run loose as no cohesive plans will be in place