Point estimate
Single numbers derived from a sample
- represents our best estimate of the true value of the much larger population parameter
What are examples of point estimates derived from samples of populations?
Sampling
Measure only a fraction of individuals in the population of diverse individuals
Sampling leads to ______
Error
Confidence interval
Range of values that the point estimate could reasonably take
- always accompanied by a probability statement
95% confidence interval
If we repeated sampling of the population many times, and for each sample constructed a 95% confidence interval, then 95% of these intervals would contain the true population parameter
You assume that the samples are ______
Independent, randomly selected (no bias), and sufficiently large
Common CI inference
The 95% CI contains the population parameter 95% of the time
- applies for means, proportions, RR, OR
P value
Probability of obtaining the observed value (or more extreme value) when the null hypothesis (Ho) is true
Ho
States there is no difference between the groups being compared
- the groups being compared came from one population, and the difference you see is only sampling error (aka: random error)
If the p-value is small, then ______
The probability of obtaining the observed (or more extreme) value is small, under the assumption of Ho
What is “small”
Usually 0.05 or below
If we reject Ho ______
You can accept the alternative hypothesis (Ha)
With the null hypothesis, the 2 groups really are ______
From one population
- the difference that is seen is due to sampling error
If the p value is small, then the probability of getting the observed (or more extreme) value, due to sampling error, is _____
Small
- reject Ho, accept that there is some difference between groups (they come from separate populations)
If the p value is not small then we cannot reject Ho because ______
There is not sufficient evidence to reject it