rational choice paradigm
selects the choice with the highest utility through the calculation of the subjective expected utility SEU
subjective expected utility SEU =
SEU= probability of satisfaction for each alternative
bestaat uit:
- expected value of the outcomes = utility
- probability of those good or bad outcomes occurring (expectancy)
dus utility = expected value
expectancy= probability of occuring
rational choice decision making
expectancy + selection criteria (important values) + importance of outcomes (valence)
problem =
deviation between the current and desired situation
opportunity=
deviation between current expectations and a potentially better situation
metadecisions voorbeelden
- solve the problem alone, or include others?
- programmed decision (following all standard procedures?)
- or nonprogrammed decisions (requiring all steps from the decision model, because the problem is new/complex)
6 stappen rational decision making process
- identify problem or opportunity
- choose decision process
- what are the choices?
- select the choice with the highest expected value (highest SEU)
- implement
- evaluate
problems with the rational decision paradigm
problems with…
- problem identification
- goals -> organizational goals are often in conflict with each other, and not clear/agreed on.
- information processing: human capacity cannot evaluate all alternatives and their consequences. + sequential evaluation instead of all at the same time.
- people rather go with satisficing (good enough) than maximazation (the highest payoff)
waardoor komt satisficing
- door sequential evaluation of alternatives
- teveel info -> je kan gewoon niet het beste alternatief vinden
5 concerns of problem identification
- stakeholder framing
- decisive leadership
- solution-focused problems
- perceptual defense
- mental models
stakeholder framing
als employees/suppliers iets pitchen aan hun baas, gaat diegene dat niet allemaal nog individueel researchen. het is teveel informatie voor hen, dus gaan ze er van uit dat de employee/whatever alle kanten van het probleem/opportunity heeft laten zien
decisive leadership
leaders worden beoordeeld op hun decisiveness -> hoe snel ze iets als probleem/opportunity kunnen identificeren. daardoor geven veel leaders problemen/opportunities al heel snel door, zonder dat ze er zelf over na hebben kunnen denken.
solution focused problems
when they describe problems as a veiled solution
perceptual defense
tendency to block out bad news as a coping mechanism => daardoor geen problem identification
mental models
we all have mental models, sometimes they lead to us ignoring problems/opportunities because they are in conflict with our mental models
4 ways to minimize the problem identification biases
- be aware of bias
- avoid wanting to look decisive -> but carefully examinate
- divine discontent: nooit tevreden zijn (niet mee eens)
- discuss with colleagues
bij opportunities wordt meestal niet gezocht naar alternatives
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3 ways emotions influence the evaluation of alternatives
- emotions form early preferences
- emotions influence the decision making process
- emotions serve as information for choosing certain alternatives
intuition =
know when a problem/opportunity is present
without conscious reasoning: know the best course of action
both emotional and nonconscious analytical process
comparing observations with deeply held patterns based on experiencce
based on action-scripts -> to make us make decisions faster
decisions have a higher failure rate when decision makers are..
decisive.
wat is een tip omdat decisions gebaseerd zijn op rational & emotional?
kijk er later even naar terug -> dan ben je in een andere emotionele staat.
welke bias komt kijken bij de laatste stap van rational decision making process
evaluation: confirmation bias (overexaggerate positive outcomes, niet negatieve outcomes benoemen)
escalation of commitment
tendency to repeat a bad decision
4 reasons for escalaiton of commitment
- self-justification effect: prove that your decisions will eventually be succesful
- self-enhancement effect: want to make urself feel good
- prospect theory: sterkere negatieve emoties bij losses dan positive emoties bij winnen
- sunk cost effect: het is toch al gebeurd, kunnen we er maar beter alles insteken
